What if Florida and Michigan had followed the rules ??

[kentuck]

What would we be looking at right now? After Hillary's blowout win in WV last night, she probably would have been declared the "presumptive" nominee? It is doubtful that Obama would have been in the same place he is today, the probable nominee of our Party.

The actions by Florida and Michigan have changed the parameters and the strategies of the Democratic race for the Presidency. If they had maintained their schedule as defined by Party rules, this race would have been too close to call. The delegate counts and the popular vote would be nose to nose. Also, the momentum of wins in states like Florida and Michigan could have changed the direction of the entire race.

As it is, even with last night's blowout win, Hillary does not appear to have a chance to catch Obama in the delegate count. Without FL and MI, Hillary's numbers are greatly diminished. In the end, she may come close in the popular vote, or she may even win it, but the die is set - thanks mostly to Florida and Michigan.

[CPschem]

1. The answer is we'll never know

We don't know how Obama would have fared in MI, and we don't know how many people in FL stayed home, knowing that their vote would not count.

[BlueJac]

2. It is over

[NightWatcher]

3. if "IF's" and "BUTS" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a wonderful christmas

"IF" a frog had wings, he wouldn't bump his ass when he hops

[Duke Newcombe]

19. Or, a favorite of my grandma...

"If I had nuts, I'd be Grandpa". Crass, but effectively illustrates the point of "If" statements.

Duke

[demokatgurrl]

30. Or MY Grandma's favorite

"If shit a brick".
I have no idea what it meant but she said it all the time.

[Boz]

4. Had they followed the rules we would be in a similar place, she would have taken repub FL and he

would have taken MI, which would have just statistically raised the numbers pretty evenly to what they are.

The only way FL and MI help her is in an uncontested environment.

[verges]

26. WE're forgetting

there were still other horses in the race at those points. Maybe Edwards would have faired much better if FL than predocted and changed the whole momentum of his campaign. Maybe he would now be the presumptive candidate.

Or maybe Kucinich could have come in a respectable third place in MI. This would have given him more momentum and carried him as far as into the OH primary. He might have carried voters from both Clinton and Obama. Just enough that Obama might've carried OH.

We'll never know.

[seabeyond]

5. or with campaigning and legitmacy, obama may have done better than fine

we dont know.

[still_one]

6. This isn't the first time MI did this. In fact Terry Mcauliffe told MI the same thing Dean

told them if they held their primary early

[Hugabear]

7. Considering that Obama's name wasn't on the ballot in Michigan...

And none of the candidates did any active campaigning in either state, we'll never really know, will we? Chances are Hillary still might have won both states, but would it have been by such a large margin? Since it's not a winner-take-all like the GOP, chances are good that other candidates - Obama, Edwards, etc - would have taken some of those delegates from Hillary.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

8. Obama always gains voters when he campaigns in a state

and Clinton always loses voters. The margin in Florida would have been much more in Obama's favor, and of course he would have had a significant proportion of the votes in Michigan, if not a majority. Clinton would most likely still be behind at this point (as she is even if you include the FL and MI delegates as voted).

[bowens43]

9. Your making unwarranted assumptions.

There is no reason to believe that hillary would have had significant victories in these states if they had both campaigned there.

[dchill]

22. Bingo.

[crankychatter]

10. Actually, with campaigning, Obama turns polls around, narrows gaps and WINS

I think we'd be in almost precisely the same spot

[RunningFromCongress]

11. I think he would have won MI and lost FL if they had regular primaries later in the season

[kentuck]

15. Sounds about right.

But we would not be discussing FL and MI today.

[mmonk]

12. Life would be easier and a little less divisive.

[MadBadger]

13. Obama would have won Michigan and Hillary would have won a closer race in Florida.

[corkhead]

"IF" the delegates were counted like shots are in golf, then she would be winning

[L0oniX]

14. Better question: What if the other states didn't follow the rules too?

[madfloridian]

16. By FL's original date, March 11, Obama would have been very competitive here

And I think Hillary would not have been so far ahead. Jan. 29 was way before March 11, just think how important we could have been in a good way.

[kentuck]

17. As it was...

it was right after Obama's huge win in SC. Shouldn't that have given him some momentum?

[John Q. Citizen]

18. Imposible to say. I bet Clinton wouldn't have won MI though. I see you assume she would have.

It might have also changed who else stayed in the race.

It might have changed who won other races. Would Clinton have had the money to compete in CA?

Would Obama have shifted his strategy?

It's impossible to say.

What ifs are for people who have a lot of extra time on their hands, and for science fiction writers.

I agree that FL and MI violating the rules had an impact on the race. But their is no way to conclusively tell how much or in what way exactly.

One difference would be that Clinton wouldn't appear to be such a hypocrite. That might have helped her. Of course, she could have also not behaved like a hypocrite under the circumstances and achieved the same thing.

[kentuck]

21. I agree.

:-)

[David Zephyr]

28. I agree, JQC.

Completely.

[Occam Bandage]

20. I'd think HRC wins FL, Obama wins MI, not much changes.

[Jen-MI]

23. Yeah RIGHT!

Do you really think that Obama would have won MI? I have been
lurking for a while and I just couldn't let this go! I don't
think it wouldn't have mattered if they campaigned or not,
Hillary would have won Michigan. 

Obama was not on the ballet, however, supporters of candidates
other than Clinton were told to vote uncommitted. So there was
a choice. Further, some voters didn't think their vote was
going to count so they voted for McCain in the republican
primary or didn't vote at all even after the Governor said
that eventually the delegates would be seated. I voted. My
sister and my mom decided not to, but if they could have gone
back and voted their vote would have been for Clinton.

Look at the amount of people that voted in the primary that,
supposedly, wasn't going to count.....tell me how, if we would
have waited, Obama would have taken our state. Clinton had
more votes than all the other candidates combined (the
uncommitted votes). We can't go back and redo it now, but I
really don't think that the state would have gone to Obama. 

Many people in our state are not happy with Obama....hence his
visit in Grand Rapids today! I am not far from where he is
going to be...I thought about going just to say I did. Maybe
get a better feeling about him. I don't know if I will vote
for him in the fall (assuming he will be the nominee). The
perception has been that Obama doesn't care about
Michigan...like we are unimportant. That makes it difficult
for me to support him. It makes me want to stay home on
election day. Hopefully, with his visit to GR today, he heals
our state. God knows he will need Michigan to win in
November!!! Good Luck!

[MadBadger]

24. Rasmussen poll taken after the primary showed the thing tied.

[Jen-MI]

29. Link???? N/T

[MadBadger]

25. You realize Hillary doesnt care about Michigan Either?

Its all about her. Secondly, there was an obvious depressed turnout in that state. Only 600,000 people showed up to vote, which is an extremely low number for the amount of delegates it had. If I were an Obama supporter, Id be less likely to go vote than if I were a Hillary supporter.

[Jen-MI]

27. In 2004, there were 163,769 total votes in the Presidental Primary...600,000 is a lot more!