Hillary's Path to Victory: Seventy-Two Percent

[WeDidIt]

Hillary Clinton needs 154 pledged delegates to catch Obama in that metric. There are 189 pledged delegates reamining in the race. This means Hillary Clinton needs 81% of the remaining pledged delegates just to catch up to Barack Obama. Worse yet, Hillary Clinton needs 182 of the remaining delegates to hit a majority of pledged delegates. That's 96% of the remaining pledged delegates for Hillary to win a majority. Due to apportionment, it is mathematically impossible for Hillayr to win a majority of pledged delegates.

Clearly, that metric is gone as an issue on May 20. Barack Obama will be the winner of a majority of pledged delegates on May 20 and nothing will alter that fact.

Obama needs 140 more delegates total to reach the current magic number of 2025. Hillary needs 308. There are 428 delkegates remaining. Obama needs only 33% of remaining delegates to win and Hillary needs Seventy-Two Percent!.

Now Hillary's campaign has tried to move the goal posts to 2209 and have even dishonestly attempted to say that this will be the number under the rules. Let's be clear, Two Thousand Two Hundred Nine Delegates Will NEVER Be The Magic Number. Under the rules there is no choice at all. The number of delegates for Florida and Michigan must be cut in half, regardless of anything else. Even if the Rules and Bylaws Committee determines it should seat delegates from the state, the pledged delegate number will either be cut in half or each pledged delegate will gain 1/2 of a vote. Most likely, the Super Delegates will each gain a full vote.

Doing the math, that makes the new number roughly 2130.

Now, because Obama's campaign interpreted the no participation clause of the pledge to mean remove their name from the ballot where they could, the Rules and bylaws Committee will be hard pressed to punish him for doing so. Remember, the states themselves were at fault here and punishing a candidate for following the rules as the Rules and Bylaws Committee set before votes were cast would set a bad precedent for future elections. Thus, the uncommitteed delegates in Michigan will be seated (at 1/2 strength) for Obama. There will be no arguing against that outcome because to do so devestates all future elections.

End Result, not a lot changes. Barack Obama will still need roughly 1/3 of the remaining delegates and Hillary Clinton will still need roughly 3/4 of the remiaing delegates.

Thus, Hillary must win 72% of remaining delegates. There is no other path to the nomination for her.

Hillary won 20 out of 28 delegates last night. That's only 71% of the delegates in West Virginia.

Her West Virginia win just wasn't good enough.

Today, Barack Obama has only picked up 1.5 super delegates, but Hillary Clinton has only picked up one. In this exchange of super delegates, Hillary only picked up 40% of the delegates won over today.

That's just not good enough.

Keep in mind. Every day from here on where Hillary Clinton does not pick up 72% of the delegates that announce is another day where she falls further behind. soon, she'll need 75%.

By next week, she may need 80%.

By May 31, she may need 90%.

Even though she may win in Puerto Rico, the outcome may be such that, even if the Rules and Bylaws Committee moves the goal posts, she is mathematically eliminated.

Oh, and that argument about the popular vote where Hillary counts two states that didn't count but doesn't count four states that did count? By seating the uncommitted delegates from Michigan for Obama, that argument is moot.

[TomClash]

1. You're using logic

Moot - shmoot. That's not acceptable.

Barack is a successful, smart, negro, muslim half-breed! He is anti-white, even though he's white. His own "Christian" pastor said it! Didn't you hear the voters of West Virginia? They're real Americans.

[WeDidIt]

2. IT's a numbers game

and numbers implies mathematics.

And mathematics requires logic.

[nxylas]

3. And logic is sexist n/t

[TomClash]

6. Mathematics?

You ain't no real American. :sarcasm:

[snooper2]

4. I think the problem is...

Hillary INC. team is using this





Barack Obama's team is using this






:rofl:



GOBAMA!

[Boz]

5. 3.5 supers today, so far

[Perky]

7. Plus the 19 delgates pledged to Edwards

[WeDidIt]

8. You cannot assume that

They are the ones who will ahve to endorse a candidate.

[oldpol]

9. and Edwards did not technically release his delegates

during his speech, right? I didn't hear him actually say it

[WeDidIt]

10. He did say that they will ahve to make up their minds

when interviewed a few days ago.