Marc Ambinder: Obama more competitive in Florida than CW suggests

[featherman]

"Both the Obama campaign and the McCain campaign believe that Sen. McCain has an edge in Florida heading into November, although the Obama folks will definitely contest the state as if it were a swing state. Let's dig a little bit into some of the latest numbers to see whether fortunes are shifting.

In the latest Quinnipiac poll (released May 1), Obama beats McCain 47-43 in North Florida and 51-36 in Southeast Florida. They're neck and neck in normally conservative Southwest Florida, 42-44. However, McCain leads in Tampa Bay and Central Florida, 50-34 and 48-38 respectively. Overall, the poll only has McCain up 44-43 over Obama in Florida, and it's important to note that in this same poll, McCain is getting the votes of 36% of Clinton supporters -- a number that will obviously decrease with time -- although how drastically, we do not know.

REPUBLICANS ARE 89-7 for McCain while Democrats are 69-19 for Obama. Among independents, Obama is only down 38-42 -- despite essentially never having campaigned here. Only 83% of blacks are committed to Obama in Florida, versus 95% in Pennsylvania. That will change, too. These numbers (excluding the regional ones) are strikingly similar to the poll's finding in Ohio. And only 29% of Clinton supporters say they are voting for McCain there, 16% of Dems overall.

In many parts of Florida, the economy is in the tank. The state has the second highest foreclosure rate in the country, and ghost towns -- ok, ghost gated communities -- are popping up. Consumer confidence is at its lowest point in 16 years -- and George W. Bush has a 24% favorability rating. (He was over 45% in 2006.)"

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_map_watching_florida.php

[anonymous171]

1. Good news.

[flpoljunkie]

2. Excellent news, featherman!

[HockeyMom]

3. SW Florida Economy is in the TANKS

Massive layoffs in education and law enforcement. But good state Republicans that they are, MORE tax cuts are coming. I just saw my umpteenth Obama sticker today. To date, not a single ONE for McCain or Hillary.

[NJSecularist]

4. Obama loses the state in Central Florida in the I-4 corridor.

It is the swing part of the state. It consists of Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach. That is where Obama will lose the state. Hillary would do a much better job contesting that part of the state.

[SteveM]

8. The I-4 corridor is an old GOP base, not as far to right as national party...

That is why a somewhat "moderate" McCain can do well here. While many Republicans will hold their noses when they vote for him, voters in Central Florida may do so with enthusiasm. Further, there are a number of military/NASA facilities and institutions in the area. Frankly, Obama can probably do well campaigning for the mythical "working-class white" vote as they may be more likely to vote Obama than the more finely-tuned Republican conservatives in C. Florida. Put another way, if a hard-line rightist were the GOP nominee, Obama could do somewhat better along I-4.

Tampa is not that heavily conservative, due to manufacturing & shipping occupations, and Obama would be well advised to campaign here. But he needs to clean up his stand on the Second Amendment. Florida was one of the original CCW states. Fortunately for Obama, McCain stinks on 2A as well.

[NJSecularist]

9. Yup. If the GOP nominated Romney, Obama would have a chance in the I-4 corridor.

But the I-4 corridor is right in McCain's wheelhouse. The area is full of moderates and they will enthusiastically vote for McCain. It was the area that gave McCain his win in the Republican primary.

[satireV]

5. Actually Marcy poos is reaching

Florida has always been barely GOP when matched against Obama.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May14.html
State Democrat Republican End Len Dem GOP I Pollster
Florida Barack Obama John McCain Apr 29 7 43% 44% Quinnipiac U.
Florida Barack Obama John McCain Apr 10 1 38% 53% Rasmussen
Florida Barack Obama John McCain Mar 31 8 37% 46% Quinnipiac U.
Florida Barack Obama John McCain Mar 12 1 43% 47% Rasmussen
Florida Barack Obama John McCain Feb 28 3 45% 47% SurveyUSA
Florida Barack Obama John McCain Feb 16 1 37% 53% Rasmussen


But Marcy poos of course doesn't tell the whole story and post the other side of the coin.

Florida is "Weak DEM" when Clinton v McCain is done

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May14.html
State Democrat Republican End Len Dem GOP I Pollster
Florida Hillary Clinton John McCain Apr 29 7 49% 41% Quinnipiac U.
Florida Hillary Clinton John McCain Apr 10 1 45% 44% Rasmussen
Florida Hillary Clinton John McCain Mar 31 8 44% 42% Quinnipiac U.
Florida Hillary Clinton John McCain Mar 12 1 40% 47% Rasmussen
Florida Hillary Clinton John McCain Feb 28 3 51% 42% SurveyUSA
Florida Hillary Clinton John McCain Feb 16 1 43% 49% Rasmussen


So why do you think Marcy poos doesn't tell the whole story?

[seasat]

6. Obama dips during media barrage then rebounds in those polls.

It thought it was interesting that the low numbers occurred when Obama was getting hammered in the media. He effectively dealt with the issues and it now looks like his numbers versus McSame are rebounding. It'll be interesting to see what happens to the polls in June. I'll bet that Obama will have the electoral votes well over McSame by the end of June based on the direction of those polls.

[satireV]

7. IF a big IF... the media doesn't pound the Dem candidate

When did the MSM not pound the Dem candidate?

Not in my lifetime! or yours I bet has the media not taken the right wing big business GOP side in an election.


Obama will have to move to the center. When he does that will his left wing supporters become disaffected and just not vote?