I know I'm way biased (being a lifetime Oregonian) but I am so looking forward to Tuesday

[ORDem]

when Oregon gives Obama the pledged delegate majority!

:bounce: :woohoo:

[gateley]

1. And being a lifetime Washingtonian (until the last 5 years)

I feel a kinship and am so happy FOR you -- and PROUD, too!

[casus belli]

2. I'm looking forward to Tuesday as well...

Make us proud. :)

[Poll_Blind]

3. Oh yes! It is going to be sweet! Unfortunately, I'm not sure if it will change...

...Senator Clinton's behavior one lick. However, reality does not seem to have much of an effect on her in any case.

PB

[thewiseguy]

7. Obama is only about 133 delegates away from clinching the nomination

Lets say he gets about 50 delegates on Tuesday that would leave him 80 delegates short. From now until Tuesday there will probably be an additional 20 superdelegates so..it will be pretty much a done deal. :)

She will get out of the race after tuesday.

[Poll_Blind]

14. Here's hoping! n/t

PB

[SoCalDem]

31. but but but..Mzzzhillie says he "has-ta-get" 2210

she done changed the rules.. see in Bizarro Politics, the LOSERS get to change and make up rules anytime they want to..

[dkf]

4. You are so lucky! You are making history.

:)

[Kittycat]

5. I'm very happy for you.

What I would give to be in the Portland Tuesday night. If we had family close, I think we actually would have flown out there.

[Mme. Defarge]

6. After so many years of never having any influence

on the candidate selection, we want our day in the sun! And the honor of giving this amazing and historic candidate the nomination.

[MadBadger]

8. Have you seen numbers on expected turnout?

[99th_Monkey]

25. Oregon has mail-in ballots, so they dribble in. Here's a link that'll track ballots rec'd until Tue

So far it's 22% but it's expected to be higher than most primaries. You can check the link
everyday to see how many more ballots are received.

http://www.mcelections.org/2008-05/turnout.shtml

[Arugula Latte]

27. We usually have higher turnout than most states

I mean, If you can't find the time to sit down and vote in, like, 20 days, then that's pretty pathetic. :)

[ORDem]

35. Article today said the Sec'y of State's office is "bracing" for a 75% turnout!

:woohoo:

[NotThisTime]

39. How many registered voters are there?

[ORDem]

42. Roughly 2 million. nt

[Cha]

9. I hope so..that Oregon is the

end of the trail but that wouldn't exactly be June 15th which some others are saying she wants to drag it out to..

[grantcart]

10. well I am sorry to be the one to tell you but if Edwards pledged delegates move first

that honor will go to Kentucky.

If however there are huge SDs endorsements you could get the 2025 number


working on the numbers when you posted this.

Obama's magic number for pledged is only 27.5 and Edwards has 19 pledged delegates.

[grantcart]

18. It depends on the Edwards pledged delegates

The post Edwards Numbers
1) Pledged delegates

Edwards has 19 Delegates in Iowa/NH/SC let's assume Obama gets 15 of those (all of Iowa and SC but not NH)

Obama's pledged majority magic number 25


Delegates at stake in Kentucky 60 and Oregon 65.

Let's assume that the pledged numbers announce before 5/20

Obama would get the pledged majority in Kentucky - not Oregon

Let's assume that he gets 60 of the 125 delegates up that night



Obama's magic number for majority of the delegates is 133.5



Edwards 15
KY/OR 60

Total 75

He only needs 58 Super Delegates to get the nomination

There are probably 30 delegates that will go immediately for the pledged majority winner

So Obama needs about 30 Super Delegates to clinch the nomination

There are 8 add on Super Delegates to be added this weekend

Colorado 1 5/17/2008 Selected during the State Convention
Kansas 1 5/17/2008 Selected during the State Convention
Nevada 1 5/17/2008 Selected by the state convention as a whole
California 5 5/18/2008 Selected during the Delegation Meeting

Obama needs about 6 Super Delegates a day and all of the other listed above to seal it on Tuesday.

[ORDem]

36. Yeah, the polls close earlier in KY, but since it's going to Clinton I'm not counting them! LOL!!

[FightingIrish]

11. I'm not sure why Obama has caught fire in Oregon

My family is scattered all over the state and when we gathered in March for a funeral, we were amazed ti find that we had all decided on Obama without any help from each other. I think Oregon has a reputation of being a bullshit-free state and Obama is the perfect candidate for us.

[Beregond2]

21. "A bullshit free state."

LOL! I've been trying to explain about Oregon here and elsewhere, and I could have said just that. I'm in Longview, which is just over the border in WA. I grew up here, though I have lived all over. I have always felt like more of an Oregonian than a Washingtonian, so I too am very happy to see my favorite state get all this attention.

When 9/11 happened, a group of 1000 Oregonians went to NYC as a group to spend money and show our support. I was living in Portland at the time, so I was one of them. We all had "OR hearts NY" T shirts, and people in NYC would come up to us and give us big hugs to thank us for coming. They seemed so amazed that we would do that. But our attitude was: "Why wouldn't we? And where are all the other states?" I think that is typical of Oregon.

[Arugula Latte]

28. I remember that so well. That's GREAT that you were one of them!

What an amazing experience that must have been. :toast:

[NotThisTime]

38. I love that description!

[NatBurner]

41. i wish texas could say that... and sorry about dubya

i tried to warn them

[Major Hogwash]

12. Oregon is sooo cool.

I wish I could vote on Tuesday.
Maybe I could drive over to Ontario on Monday night and register to vote on Tuesday.

LoL

[Cleita]

13. I hope you guys

give Obama the edge he needs to end this endless primary. Then Obama can concentrate his energies to beating McCain.

[PretzelWarrior]

15. my vot is in and ready to be counted

YEEEHAAWWWW! Oregon is Obama country now and for sure in November. p.s. Bye bye Gordon Smith, you tool.

[quakerboy]

34. from your lips

I want Gordo out so much. my vote is in as well, and I am looking forward to the GE, no matter which we run against him.

[CoffeeCat]

16. Do not take ONE MINUTE of it for granted!!!!!

I'm so excited FOR you! How absolutely amazing that you are in Oregon
and that you will be a part of history!! :)

History is being made with this election and Obama is going to make it to
the White House--and you are going to be there being a pivotal part of it!

How amazing is that? :wow:

Are you going to see him speak? If so, take lots of pictures and cherish
every moment. One minute, the pols and the satellite trucks are in your state,
and the next minute--they're onto the next one.

Enjoy...bask in the political limelight! Have a great time and get involved
with the campaign if you have a chance! I doubt there will be anything
like this again, in our lifetime.

I don't have to tell you....soak it up!! :hi:

I'm in Iowa, and I enjoyed being a part of history. I only wish that I
had taken more pictures!

Enjoy..and give us full reports! :)

[Iwasthere]

17. Me too!

I'll be there. Heading up right after work at 3:30 (I am in Salem. My daughter and I got to meet him when he was here last) I feel so lucky.

[AtomicKitten]

19. I am very excited too and hope Oregon and the SDs put him over the top.

:thumbsup:

[housewolf]

20. As a new resident of Oregon

who hasn't had a primary candidate to vote for since 1992, I am completely, utterly THRILLED to be able to cast a vote for Barack Obama on Tuesday and have it mean something!

GO 'BAMA!!!

[davidpdx]

22. Damn straight! Go Oregon

It's been a long time coming that our primary is going to really mean something. Regardless of which pledged delegates put him over the 1/2 threshold, it will be Obama's win in Oregon that will essentially end the race. I hope that Obama wins by a larger margin then I think (I'm predicting 58/42 realistically).

What sucks is I'll actually be at work here in Korea and not able to watch the returns coming in. Oh do I wish I could get away with canceling those classes!

[housewolf]

23. Obama's polling about 20 points ahead of Hillary in Oregon

According to the newspaper's poll yesterday/today

[pettypace]

24. Who's Ron Wyden leaning towards?

He's a west coast Feingold type...Obama guy?

[Arugula Latte]

29. He hasn't publicly said yet. I believe his chief of staff is some higher up on Hillary's campaign.

Disappointing to me, but, hey, maybe Wyden will read the organic chai leaves and come out and endorse Oregon's candidate, Obama.

[boppers]

44. "organic chai leaves"!

:rofl: That's Oregon for ya.

I love living in this state. I know one republican, a "hunter type" (which, in Portland parlance, means he volunteers to replant forests for most of the year, takes maybe one deer, and then makes organic venison stew for a local homeless shelter), and he decided on Obama over McCain *and* Hillary because the war.

Even our right-wingers are to the left of Hillary! :)

[Cali_Democrat]

26. I love the Pacific Northwest

Oregon and Washington rock!! Very smart people who are true Progressives. :loveya:

Also, the place is soooo beautiful. Anyone who hasn't been there must go.

[Beregond2]

40. Thank you.

I've lived all over this country, and traveled internationally, but somehow I always end-up back here. When you grow-up surrounded by so much beauty, it is easy to take it for granted, but when I am away from it, I'm like an addict in need of his fix.

[bhikkhu]

30. I hope the turnout is good...I voted on the 11th

(mail in). An Obama win and a push over the top from Oregon would be great, but I would settle for a good turnout and a good candidate to oppose and defeat our deeply and uniquely repug senator smith....

[Tinksrival]

32. Everything will.......

fall in place in Oregon!

[DU GrovelBot]

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[NotThisTime]

37. YES YOU WILL!!!

[smalll]

43. Reaching 2025 on latte liberals isn't exactly the best symbolism.

He could cross the line on Vermont or Washington (Seattle) and it would hardly look much worse. :eyes: