Once Michigan and Florida are seated, HRC will be fewer than 60 delegates behind Senator Obama

[Tropics_Dude83]

Do you really expect her to give up in that case? She'll win Kentucky by 40-45 points. She'll win Puerto Rico by a similar margin. His pledged delegate lead will only be 106 at that point assuming sizable Obama wins in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. Once HRC seats Florida and Michigan, which the rules committee is likely to do, she'll trail by fewer than 60 delegates.

If Obama can get 35-40% of the vote in Kentucky, he'll be safe. If he gets blown out in Kentucky by 45 points, we're headed to the convention.

60 delegates is meaningless. In this scenario, she would only need 460-470 superdelegates total to win the nomination. Do you really expect her to give up before Denver when the convention delegate total will be essentially tied? Especially if she wins her popular vote argument.

This isn't as over as it seems.

[GarbagemanLB]

1. She will not win KY by 40 points, and she will DEFINITELY not win PR by that much. Even 20 is too

much, IMO.

[GarbagemanLB]

3. Also, what is meaningful is who WINS the Pledged delegate race. It doesn't matter by how much.

[ORDem]

30. Precisely! At that point the SD trickle will become a deluge. nt

[K Gardner]

2. Which side are you on today? And sorry, maybe you weren't paying attention, but

its all over but the shouting.

[anonymous171]

4. A lot of her early pledged delegates don't want to support her anymore, FYI

[Alexander]

5. One small problem - Obama will be at 2025 at that point, and it really will be OVER.

[Tropics_Dude83]

8. 2,209 is the magic number not 2,025

Even Al Gore says Florida/Michigan need to be seated.

Once the magic number is raised, even in giving each delegate from FL/MI just half a vote, it's a whole new game. I think it's likely to go up to 2,100+ or so. Not neccessarrily 2,209 but 2,025 won't be the majority come June 1 almsot certainly.

[MercutioATC]

16. IF Obama can get to 2025 before a decision is reached on MI and FL...

...he will be the nominee.

If he can get to 2025 before May 31, the FL and MI delegates won't matter.

[XemaSab]

52. Not to sound like a hater

but in addition to expected numbers from Oregon and Kentucky, he would need like, 40% of the remaining superdelegates for him to reach 2025 by May 31.

[Alexander]

23. Not a single Democratic party official agrees with you on that.

And Obama only needs 133 delegates to get to 2025.

By June 3rd, he'll have about 80-90 pledged delegates from the remaining contests.

And that's not including the superdelegate endorsements. Which, if you've noticed, have included some defections from the Clinton camp.

I don't know where you get this idea, but it's highly unlikely the contest will go to 2209 until after a nominee is decided - which will certainly happen by June 3.

[AzDar]

24. Al Gore said Michigan and Florida need to be seated? When?

:shrug:

[Tropics_Dude83]

29. Yep NPR interview 2 weeks ago

I'll find the link. Just a sec.

[unlawflcombatnt]

57. I believe you

And they should be seated anyway, regardless of what he said.

[CreekDog]

43. The rules say that Florida and Michigan cannot change the outcome

that's why 2025 is the number, not 2209.

and your math seems to show Clinton getting nearly all of the Michigan delegates --that won't happen either.

finally, 40-45 point win in Puerto Rico is highly unlikely with Obama down only 9 in a recent poll. second, not all hispanics are the same, Puerto Ricans are not Mexican-Americans, thus 40 point margins along the Mexico border in Texas will not be repeated in Puerto Rico. for that matter, New Mexico was essentially a tie between Obama and Clinton and that state is largely Hispanic.

[cali]

46. bzzzzt. Sorry, dude. Until the DNC changes it, 2025 is the number.

and he'll get a fair number of delegates from MI and FL if they are reinstated in some way. Say, it 2100 or so- won't make any difference to Obama. And Al Gore sure as hell has not said that MI should be seated in a way that screws O out of delegates- and that won't happen. Everyone but you and other hillbots knows it's over.

[Yukari Yakumo]

53. Too bad the committee won't see it your way

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080516/ap_on_el_pr/primary_scramble

"Sorry, Sen. Clinton. Michigan and Florida can't save your campaign. Interviews with those considering how to handle the two states' banished convention delegates found little interest in the former first lady's best-case scenario.

<...>

"But now there is agreement on all sides that at least some of the delegates should be restored in a gesture of party unity and respect to voters in two general election battlegrounds.

<...>

"The Associated Press interviewed a third of the panel members and several other Democrats involved in the negotiations and found widespread agreement that the states must be punished for stepping out of line. If not, many members say, other states will do the same thing in four years.

'We certainly want to be fair to both candidates, and we want to be sure that we are fair to the 48 states who abided by the rules,' said Democratic National Committee Secretary Alice Germond, a panel member unaligned with either candidate. 'We don't want absolute chaos for 2012.'"

Loose translation: HRH HRC's nuclear option just went *poof*.

[DJ13]

6. You're making a false assumption if you're giving her Michigan as is

:spank:

[unlawflcombatnt]

37. She won 55% of the votes

If Obama gets 45%, that's generous.

[mnotme]

40. The logic of hillary

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTY_bp1dTA4

[nemo137]

59. She was the only major candidate on the ballot

Put me up against "uncommitted," and I could win 55% in Michigan, too.

[madfloridian]

7. Unless Obama agrees they will not be fully seated. Period. Bottom line.

.

[NanceGreggs]

9. Are you a professional straw-grasper ...

... or just a top-ranking amateur?

[Tropics_Dude83]

12. Just a top ranking amateur

LOL. He's got to score at least 35% of the vote in Kentucky and 40% of the vote in PR or else FL/MI will matter. And as West Virginia showed, that may be no small feat.

[MadBadger]

How do you expect FL and Michigan will be seated?

[Tropics_Dude83]

20. Exactly as Senator Clinton tells the rules committee to seat them

Look at the members. 13 out of the 30 members on the RBC are what we would call "Hillbots". The chairwoman is Alexis Herman. 8 Support Obama. 7 are uncommitted. So 14 votes for HRC counting Alexis and then she just needs two of the uncommitted to vote for her plan.

Harold Ickes, her chief strategist, sits on the RBC!! The RBC will do exactly what Senator Clinton tells them to do. The committee is stacked in her favor.

Then, we get into the "fun" of a credentials committee fight followed by a convention floor fight.

[msallied]

27. "The RBC will do exactly what Senator Clinton tells them to do."

That's a lofty assumption.

[JackORoses]

35. what a deluded buffoon you have shown yourself to be

How many times has the sky collapsed on you now?

[cali]

50. The RBC will not give your dear hillykins what she's asking for.

And that's that Obama gets nothing out of MI. She can't even get an SD endorsement these day. There are few committed hillbots left. No uncommitteds on the RBC are going to go with something that blatant. Sorry, hilbot, you're in for a big disapppointment.

[NanceGreggs]

18. I think you're just being humble ...

... you're a pro.

Obama is ahead by every metric - and yet you're talking about what he has to do in order to stay viable.

He won, she lost. It's over. How many arias does the fat lady have to sing before you open your ears and hear the tune?

[cali]

48. nope, wrong again dude. What's your gal going to run her campaign

on? fumes? And Axelrod has said that they have the SDs they need.

[FrenchieCat]

10. Chicken Little is baaaaack!

[datopbanana]

11. your math is wrong

[MadBadger]

13. You're such a fool.

Obama lose in Puerto Rico by 45 points? You pull that out of your ass?

[Tropics_Dude83]

17. Hispanic vote in Texas and CA was 66-33

I know that PR is not hispanic in the sense that CA/TX are but Chuck Todd, etc., all seem to have PR as a base HRC state so it's not unreasonable to expect a landslide.

[MadBadger]

19. Poll out of PR had her up 50-39.

And another had her up 13. This was all a month ago.

[Hippo_Tron]

42. The White vote in West Virginia looked a lot different than the White vote in Idaho

[cali]

51. dude, pull your head out. PR is not TX. It's not Feb or March.

He's 9 pts back in the latest poll. It's over. You should go mourn for your gal.

[CreekDog]

56. what was the Hispanic vote in New Mexico?

you seem to overlook the differences among Hispanics my son. :hi:

[scheming daemons]

14. OK, Chicken Little... here's where you're wrong....

Obama is currently ahead by 172 delegates (+153 pledged, +19 super) according to realclearpolitics.com

There are 103 delegates at stake on Tuesday. Obama will win a blowout in Oregon, Clinton will win handily in Kentucky. The BEST case scenario for Clinton is about a 55-48 split.

Let's give her that.

That makes it +165/+146 (total/pledged) for Obama.


Obama will win handily in Montana and S. Dakota, and lose handily in Puerto Rico. Hillary's best-case scenario is to come out of those three with about a 50-39 split. So let's give her that too.

That makes it +154/+135 (total/pledged) for Obama.

Hillary's best-case scenario out of Michigan and Florida is about +50. That makes it:

+104/+85 (total/pledged) for Obama.

This is assuming that no more Superdelegates go for Obama - Keep in mind, Obama has won 122-13 among Superdelegates since Feb. 5th.

In the coming weeks, that steady SD trickle is likely to continue.... Plus - add in most of Edwards' pledged delegates....



On June 3rd.... Obama will be at least 135 delegates ahead over-all... and at least 85 ahead in pledged.


He will be over 2025 without Michigan and Florida.... and he will be over 2210 with Michigan and Florida.



Bottom Line, Mr. Scaredy-Cat: Unless Obama gets hit by a bus in the next three weeks - he's the nominee.


Now relax and have a beer and quit thinking up scenarios to scare yourself.

[Tropics_Dude83]

21. LOL-OK-actually that does make me feel better

I hope your scenario pans out. And good point too.

[SoCalDem]

15. SDs have chosen NOT to be on her side..

she started out with the highest name recognition EVER, and yet only 200 or so flocked to her side..that says A LOT..

she lost..

MI & FL may be "seated", but their delegates will not/should not be "counted" toward the total .

ALL during the primaries the TOTAL needed was 2025 (2026 now)..

YOU CANNOT CHANGE THE RULES AFTER THE "GAME" IS OVER, JUST SO A DIFFERENT PERSON CAN "WIN".

[msallied]

22. Yikes. Your numbers are wrong, you're exaggerating the outcomes for Hillary, and your assumptions

are crap.

So many Hillary supporters make the assumption that the delegates can always "change their minds" and side with her, failing to keep in mind that if delegates are going to change their minds, it will likely be to jump her sinking ship to Obama's. This is done. This is over. Barring an event that would cause a major revolt within the Democratic party (which is just do not see happening at this point, as Democrats are doing everything they can to unite this party), then we have nothing to worry about.

[Rolandosoto]

25. She needs more than a 60 deficit

She needs to surpass his lead.

[cliffordu]

26. Yes it is, over as it seems, that is.

[tabatha]

28. What is so funny, is the logic that

if she is barely behind then she should have the right to claim the nomination - because she nearly equals Obama.

By that logic, Obama wins because he is barely behind by less than she is behind.

[ORDem]

31. I don't know, but I think mentioning so many "behinds" may be sexist.

;)

[tabatha]

34. Men don't have behinds? LOL.

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[JeanGrey]

33. It isn't going to happen.

[unlawflcombatnt]

36. Yes

You're right.

[smalll]

38. GOMAMA!

Madame Inevitable may not have ben the correct name for her, but Madame Electable surely is!

(viz., typical Obamatrons: "Sure, we'll lose Florida and Ohio, but we'll make it up in Hither Montidaho and West Dakutah!" :eyes: )

[unlawflcombatnt]

41. Yes

She certainly is the better candidate against McCain.

[PretzelWarrior]

39. you are a f-ing nutjob

plain and simple. you probably think Kucinich still has a path to the nomination. stop your toking or joking or whatever.

you are going to have a black man as president of the United States of America.

get over yourself.

[ruby slippers]

44. I believe in Chuck Todd's numbers only.....

[cali]

45. Let me educate you: She'll win KY by approx 25. She'll lose Oregon by

15 to 20. MI will not be seated without apportioning at least the uncommitted delegates and votes to Obama. Sorry, she won't blow him out in PR. And she's 20 million+ in debt.

It's over. Really over.

[WeDidIt]

47. I like how you claim to be for Obama

but continually make arguments in favor of Clinton.

[XemaSab]

49. I hate to be the bearer of bad news

but if the superdelegates split 50/50, Obama needs to get only 11% in every upcoming election to secure the nomination.

Hillary, under the same scenario, would need to get 100%. Literally. 100% would *just* put her over the top, were the superdelegates to split 50/50.


To flip it around, if the votes split 50/50 in the upcoming elections, Obama needs 19% of superdelegates to put him over the top.

Hillary, on the other hand, would need 91% of the superdelegates to win the nomination.


Under a combined scenario, Obama needs 33% of both elected and superdelegates to win the nomination.

Hillary needs 72%.


In short, Hillary is facing insurmountable odds.

[Vinca]

54. The key word in the title of the post is "behind." nt

[shadowknows69]

55. And you're clearly not the Obama supporter you now claim to be

Because all I see is you pumping the "It's not over" thing.

[rocktivity]

58. MI and FL will NOT be seated as is--50-50 most likely

They cannot be seated in a way that gives either candidate an advantage because the primaries were not valid. (Besides, Howard Dean certainly isn't going to commit suicide by handing Hillary the keys to a DLC coup.) If Hillary wants to stop Obama from hitting 2025 delegates (and that IS the "magic number" until MI/FL is decided) she'll have to do it the old fashioned way: win all five of the remaining contests with 85.5% of the vote.

:headbang:
rocknation

[MaineDem]

60. And very possibly they will still lose 50% of the delegates

By imposing the harsher 100% penalty up front the R&B Committee left this on the table. I bet they both lose 50% of their delegation. (All delegates will be seated with .5 vote each.)

How they'll be allocated I haven't a guess.

[AtomicKitten]

61. "60 delegates are meaningless" Ah, no. It means she lost.

And like every other candidate that came up short, you betyerass I expect her to concede. Every day she delays, she is subtracting from her own future viability within the party.

[Mz Pip]

62. She'll still be behind.

And out of time and states.

[Vinca]

63. In your world does Obama get any delegates out of Michigan and Florida?nt

[Gore1FL]

64. I doubt it, but even so...

60 behind and leader has crossed the finish line makes for a close second.