New ARG KY/OR polls not too hot for my candidate:(

[Obamamaniac_25]

36 points down in Kentucky and just 5 points ahead in Oregon.

Hope this is way wrong!

May 16, 2008 - Kentucky Democratic Primary Preference

Kentucky
Democrats May 14-15

Clinton 65%
Obama 29%
Someone else* 4%
Undecided 2%
* John Edwards and "uncommitted" are on the ballot in Kentucky - both lines are combined here

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 56% to 38% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 72% to 21%.

Clinton leads 73% to 21% among white voters (87% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 91% to 7% among African American voters (11% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 59% to 35% among voters age 18 to 49 (46% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 71% to 23% among voters age 50 and older.

12% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 50% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



May 16, 2008 - Oregon Democratic Primary Preference

Oregon
Democrats May 14-16

Clinton 45%
Obama 50%
Undecided 5%

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 57% to 39% among men (48% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 51% to 44%.

Obama leads 51% to 44% among white voters (88% of likely Democratic primary voters). Clinton leads 50% to 46% among Hispanic voters (6% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Obama leads 55% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 52% to 45% among voters age 50 and older.

Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among voters saying they have returned their ballots (58% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads 52% to 40% among voters saying they will definitely return their ballots by May 20th.

20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.

[GarbagemanLB]

1. ARG isn't a good polling outfit.

[book_worm]

2. ARG was way off in NC, Indiana and PA...

Obama will lose KY but he will win OR big.

[PBS Poll-435]

9. Way off in PA?

Umm...

They did alright.

They had Clinton's number within 6 tenths.

[onenote]

30. they had HRC winning by 16 -- actually won by 9.2

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/padem8-707.html

And virtually every other polling outfit had the margin between 5 and 10.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

If you think they did "alright" you have very low expectations for polling.

[PBS Poll-435]

51. And if you think that "the margin" is the only metric used to gauge accuracy,

Then you know very little about polling.

[onenote]

54. please educate me.

Seriously. I don't claim to know a lot about polling. I would have thought that if you underestimate the vote for one of the candidates by 6 percent you're not doing such a great job, but apparently there is more to it. Please explain.

[PBS Poll-435]

68. This is the best article I could find on the Mosteller Methods

http://www.surveyusa.com/ROR/SurveyUSA%20Interval%20Measure%20of%20Election%20Poll%20Accuracy.html

[BlooInBloo]

66. OMFG! CLASSIC!!!!

:rofl:

[PBS Poll-435]

69. Do you know about statistics? Mosteller?

[BlooInBloo]

70. Um, bringing up a *user* of least-squares, whose sole and unique raison d'etre...

... is to minimize the error, isn't really your best move here.

Of course you have no good moves, but you apparently don't know that.

[PBS Poll-435]

71. I guess the answer is no. Here is a link -

http://www.surveyusa.com/ROR/SurveyUSA%20Interval%20Measure%20of%20Election%20Poll%20Accuracy.html

[BlooInBloo]

72. (shakes head)

Every last one of them is a "margin", in your amathematical language.

The six Mosteller measures which depend on predicted vote percentages are all “error measures,” where a smaller score indicates a smaller error and, as such, a more accurate poll. The six measures are defined as follows:



Mosteller 1: The difference in percentage points between the winner's predicted and actual proportion of the total votes cast.



Mosteller 2: The difference in percentage points between the winner's predicted and actual proportions of the votes received by the top two candidates.



Mosteller 3: The average deviation in percentage points between predicted and actual returns for each candidate (without regard to sign).



Mosteller 4: The average percentage error (averaging the deviations from 100 percent of the ratio of predicted to actual proportion).



Mosteller 5: The (unsigned) difference of the oriented differences between predicted and actual percentage results for the top two candidates.



Mosteller 6: The maximum observed difference between predicted and actual percentage results for any candidate.

[PBS Poll-435]

74. Yep. That is from the link

Or from...

The Pre-election Polls of 1948: Report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-Election Polls and Forecasts

Anyway, I used the word "margin" in response to another post. From context clues you could very easily infer that it meant Obama+8!!!

[BlooInBloo]

77. I'm a mathematician, and it wouldn't even occur to me that it meant Obama +8.

[gateley]

3. I'm surprised at Oregon -- I can't believe there's only a 5 point difference.

I think these polls are off.

[grantcart]

4. delete

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. I'll take it.

It's over.
Still.

[DemGa]

6. Another trouncing coming up for the "inevitable" one

How will Team Obama work to obscure this loss?

[GarbagemanLB]

8. Don't worry, Al Gore is waiting in the wings for Obama.

[AllentownJake]

11. LOL

I think their heads would explode if we bring Al Gore out on Wednesday in Tampa.

[DemGa]

22. Would Gore take part in such crass opportunism

as did Edwards the day after Obama's WV defeat? I highly doubt it.

[AllentownJake]

38. I don't know

Ask Howard Dean in 2004 :-)

New to politics are we?

[catgirl]

60. "Crass opportunism"

Do you know what the word crass means?

Do you take passive aggressive/ anger management classes? You
should. LOL.

[DemGa]

65. Crass

-- Guided by or indicative of base or materialistic values.

The base value? Edwards taking part in a play to promote Barack Obama - at the expense of obscuring the voters' voice in W.V.

Where is the "passive aggressive/anger" in my posts?

[catgirl]

79. Post- singular

I don't see how Edwards obscured the voters of W.V. He came out for Obama
because he felt the party needed to come together. I admire that.

[shayes51]

63. Sooner or later, Barack is going to need to

do this on his own.

[Upton]

14. Kentucky is just another WV

who cares? Obama will win Ore. and he only needs 17 more to reach a majority of pledged delegates, he will get that on Tues.

[shayes51]

64. Not a good attitude for the GE.

[PBS Poll-435]

7. ARGGGG

They were the closest in West Virginia.

They did very well in Pennsylvania.

Not so hot in Indiana.

Texas was right on.




Take them or leave them, but they aren't as bad as some others this year.

[book_worm]

18. PA their final poll was Hillary 56-40, Indiana 53-45, and NC 50-42 Obama

They tend to poll Clinton better than she does. One exception is WVA where everybody had Obama down by a big margin. Hillary won PA in the end by 9.2%, It was dead even in Indiana and Obama took NC by 16 not 8.

[thewiseguy]

20. RCP does not even use the ARG numbers anymore. Plus they now put * next to ARG.

[PBS Poll-435]

28. They put a '*' because they are considered a partisan pollster, IIRC

[thewiseguy]

32. and if you pay attention their numbers are no longer used by RCP

At some point in the primary season they stoped using the ARG numbers.

[AllentownJake]

10. They are still polling these races?

[GoesTo11]

12. Real Clear Politics averages: KY-HRC by 28%, OR-Obama by 14%

More reliable - not brand new, but a lot more data.

[Occam Bandage]

13. LMAO @ ARG, "my candidate."

[cliffordu]

17. Yeah, I caught that too...

I loves me some PIZZA, I'll tell ya that.....

[Obamamaniac_25]

24. ?????

What is PIZZA???

[cliffordu]

35. A snack and a meal all rolled into one.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

57. some after dinner gum

[cliffordu]

78. Yep, LOL

I likes me the granite kind best of all....heh

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

34. or the big chicklet

for the "tough" guy.

[Obamamaniac_25]

21. Back way off pal

Back the heck off pal. I supported Obama before he even formed his exploratory committee. When did you start supporting him?

[Occam Bandage]

26. Heh. Tough-guy language on the internets. Gotta love it.

So, you a Hilly guy, or a McCain guy?

[cliffordu]

41. Yep - an absolute ass-kicker, this one...I loves me a keyboard ranger..

192nd keyboard and mouse division, reporting for duty...


Back way off......LOL

:rofl:

[Obamamaniac_25]

45. I've donated $300 to Barack's campaign since March-how about you?

Anyway, you're an ignorant jerk. I support neither HRC or John Mccain. I just want to win bigger in Oregon than 5 points that's all.

[Occam Bandage]

48. Methinks the lady doth protest too much.

Seriously, for your next life here, don't lay it on so thick with the "My Candidate" business--actual supporters of a candidate take their support as a given; they don't go out of their way to convince people. That's the icing on the manufactured-fear cake.

[Obamamaniac_25]

52. Whatever dude-think whatever the heck you want

even if it is wrong.

[cliffordu]

62. Whatever dude - Do you like Mountain dew with your cheetos

or are you a diet coke person??

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

55. Mayhill Fowler comes to mind

she donated to some campaigns.... hmmmm

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

31. Let me guess, is your candidate running on "The Change You Deserve"?

no links in your OP, and big emphasis on race

no way an Obama supporter would post this garbage.

[cliffordu]

42. Yeah, his candidiate is blasted on Effexor

[cloudythescribbler]

15. Those results are still sufficient for Obama to get the nod -- but a HUGE question is ...

will Hillary have the votes to force herself on the ticket as VP? I think it is very important that a LOT of progressives and other supporters of Obama START VOCALLY INSISTING NOW ON NOT HILLARY'S BAGGAGE AND DIVISIONS ON THE TICKET.

On the other hand, having a woman running mate at this point looks to me like an essential, and so is having someone who never supported the Iraq War Resolution.

Barbara Boxer fits these criteria well and is a VERY popular and appealing and unifying candidate with no serious baggage that I know of, strong on the Greenhouse Effect (relative to other pols -- all of them are weak, very much including Gore,in my arrogant opinion), with a LOT of LONGTIME foreign policy background.

Stabenow is another possibility, and many have urged Napolitano or Sebelius who are both worth a close look.

I just found out that Webb opposed the IWR back when, which bumps him up to my short list. I don't know about Strickland or Schweitzer, but they are also worth looking at closely.

[PassingFair]

25. Stabenow sucks.

She voted no on IWR, but other than that,
she's been PURE DLC all the way.

Including the Bankruptcy Bill.

[tokenlib]

81. Stabenow needs to get head out of her rear..she really does suck

Her comments defending herself on Bankruptcy reform were an insult and offensive to Michiganders struggling to survive. She actually was irritated that we were displeased with her vote and spoke up about it.

[PassingFair]

87. You heard the same spew I did....

yeah, to say she was unapologetic is an UNDERSTATEMENT.

[FredScuttle]

43. She cannot "force herself" on the ticket

The only sliver of hope she and her delusional supporters are clinging to is to hijack a significant majority of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to force a fight at the convention.

What they fail to realize is:

1) No superdelegate will support a candidate who lost every metric in the campaign including the most important one: DELEGATES
2) Michigan and Florida will be seated and their delegates apportioned appropriately, so that issue is moot
3) No superdelegate will support a candidate who $20 million in the red in May
4) No superdelegate wants to see this circus go all the way to the convention
5) Howard Dean has set June 3rd as the deadline for all uncommitted delegates to make their choice
6) Over the last month, Obama has dominated the superdelegates going public. I don't see anything that reverses this trend

[K Gardner]

16. Pollster on MSNBC: Obama 55 - Clinton 35 Oregon

[jenmito]

29. Even though that's an older poll, the pollster said Obama will win with at LEAST 54% and maybe up to

60%. :)

[hayu_lol]

36. The problem for Dems here in Oregon is that we all rely...

on the I-5 corridor, from Ashland to Portland, for Dem votes. That is the liberal center of the state.

Here in Klamath County, approx. 70,000 population(45,000 in Klamath Falls and suburbs), there are roughly 17,000 Repugnants and only 10,000 Dems registered to vote. Our Dem votes only count when combined with what happens in the rest of the state.

That 17,000/10,000 imbalance has prevented us in 02 from getting rid of Walden--the fundie radio station owner who has been re-elected and will undoubtedly be re-elected easily again.

Other parts of rural Oregon are in even worse shape that we are.

[Boz]

19. MSNBC live on the air has a banner that says Obama has a commanding lead in Oregon 55% to 35%

Can some explain the differences and discrepencies?

[SoxFan]

40. Explanation: ARG is a fraud

It's a sketchy outfit. The firm engages in some really sleazy practices, e.g., taking money from a campaign, releasing a cooked poll to the media, but not disclosing the financial ties.

[marlakay]

23. I talked to someone in Kentucky yesterday

and he said Louisville is for Obama big time. He wasn't sure and by end of conversation he was going to vote for Obama. Don't worry clintonistas, he was leaning 3rd party and sick of everyone.

he was against the war and wanted the economy better...i convinced him this isn't the time for a vote that won't win.

[jenmito]

27. There was an OR pollster just now on MSNBC who said at WORST Obama will win with 54%, he's doing

better than Hillary among women by 10 or 11 points unlike the ARG poll you posted. Tim Hibbitz (sp) is the pollster's name.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[indimuse]

37. K&R!

Tides have "CHANGED." There is YOUR "Change!"

[Independent-Voter]

39. I wouldn't sweat it too much. Kentucky is the last ignorant Appalachian state that's going for HRC

and no way in hell is Veruca taking Oregon

[emilyg]

80. Any state that doesn't go for Obama is ignorant.

:sarcasm:

[RiverStone]

44. Then why not post the GOOD news polls for your candidate? Obama up by 20 points in OR!

Accentuate the positive eh? :hi:

http://www.kgw.com/news-local/stories/kgw_051308_news_obama_poll.f841d69b.html

[rodeodance]

47. only 400 polled, May 8-10

[GarbagemanLB]

49. Good point! That was before the Edwards endorsement! Those numbers must have gone up.

[Teaser]

59. 400 is a typical sample for state polls

National polls use larger samples to capture the greater geographic variability of the United States. State polls frequently use smaller samples, under the assumption of greater homogeneity and the difficulty of getting larger independent samples.

[democrattotheend]

46. What are Obama supporters in Oregon waiting for?

This is the second poll that has shown Obama with a big lead among those who have not yet sent their ballots but even among those who have. What are his supporters waiting for?

[durrrty libby]

50. Hopefully they have discovered the Cardboard Messiah is a Fraud

[Barack_America]

53. Don't mix polls.

Different methodologies mean different results.

[hokies4ever]

56. Poll shown on MSNBC for OR had Obama-55, Hillary-35

[rodeodance]

61. May 8-10

[Buddyblazon]

58. Let's see...

A handful of posts.

An over the top screen name.

A deliberate use of "my candidate" in the very first sentence.

Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining.

Desperation is unbecoming. You shouldn't have tried so hard. It makes you look silly.

[GarbagemanLB]

67. Also, no profile. Interesting...

[Obamamaniac_25]

73. I do not have the vaguest idea why posting an ARG poll and saying that I hope that they are wrong

And that Oregon has a wider margin for Senator Obama than just 5 points elicits this kind of response. It is hurtful and unfair. I thought Obama would win Oregon by 12-15 points by a Wisconsin size margin and was surprised at how close it was. I get the message though. I am not welcome here. No worries though. I have no intention of posting on a board where I am not welcome. I do not want to cause trouble for the moderators either. I thought Obamamaniac was a cool name to show my support for him. Anyway, the message is loud and clear. I am gone. Way to treat new members.

[rodeodance]

76. you dared to suggest he was falling in the polls and they ate you alive.

[TexasObserver]

82. here's the problem

It's late in the process. There are many posters who have already flamed out with their excessive, uncontrollable hate for Obama. Some were no doubt Republicans posing as Democrats, and some were no doubt people with personal problems who had come to identify too strongly with Mrs. Clinton's campaign. It is not unusual for such persons to adopt a new screen name and persona in an attempt to slip back in here to create problems.

One variety of the aforementioned ousted troublemakers is something called a "concern troll." This person poses as an Obama supporter, but is constantly concerned about things that appear to cast Obama in a bad light. Hand wringing while using Hillary or GOP talking points is one trait of this kind of interloper.

When a new poster starts threads immediately here, it's always looked at askance. It's not typical behavior. Most new posters who are legit have lurked for a while, and they know that as a new poster it is best to comment on threads, not start them. Even if they post threads, they don't post threads that have all the look and feel of the concern troll at work.

You are judged by what you do here, and if those judgments are incorrect, perhaps you might reflect on the things you have done that might have caused others to incorrectly think you're a concern troll or a returning troublemaker who is simply trying to be a pest.

I am assuming you are merely a poster who started posting without ever having read the board, and who geniunely has no idea why your thread has gotten the reception it has. Time will prove that valid, or not.

[sandnsea]

75. Oregon gets skewed easily

I've seen it happen many times. If they don't weight for Portland, they aren't going to get a good poll.

[publicatlarge]

83. Is getting 'a majority' of pledged delegates...

...a new goal post? Do not think Obama would anoint himself a winner based on that standard. It would make him seem pushy and arrogant. lol

[GarbagemanLB]

84. Pledged delegates are the important metric. What, you want the party elites to overturn that winner?

[kwenu]

85. Don't put any stock into this. The Hillary Farewell Tour continues until June 4th.

[nonobadfish]

86. Real Clear Politics won't even count ARG in their poll numbers. They put an * by their name.

[DearAbby]

88. Dont cha just love the hand wringing Obama Supporters

"I support Obama BUT ...Oh my, I am so concerned, -insert doom and goom here - :::wrings hands::::eyes: