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It's NOT over! Obama should be campaigning hard in remaining 5 primary states

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Dems to Win Donating Member (245 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:34 AM
Original message
It's NOT over! Obama should be campaigning hard in remaining 5 primary states
I am quite concerned that Clinton is going to be ahead in the popular vote on June 3.

The popular vote IS important, even though if one thoroughly understands the math it is an inaccurate metric. Congresswoman Lynn Woolsey of California has endorsed Clinton but says she will vote at the convention for the winner of the popular vote, excluding Michigan.

I don't want lots of people out there with the perception that the Democratic nomination contest has been a repeat of the 2000 Gore/Bush race, with OBAMA in the role of Bush. It will give lots of people cause for feeling aggrieved and angry.

The RealClearPolitics website totals up the vote 6 ways: with and without the estimated caucus attendance in NV, IA, ME, and WA, with and without the 4 caucuses plus FL, and with and without the 4 caucuses plus FL and MI. When they add in MI, they give Obama 0 votes.

Currently, in one of the 6 totals, WITH FL and MI, but without the estimates from the 4 states that never reported attendance totals, Clinton is now in the lead by 29,471 votes.

It is possible that HRC could overtake Obama in more of these columns, if she gets a large margin in Kentucky and Puerto Rico. I see it as VERY likely she will then take it to the convention. (even if she does not, and gracefully concedes in June, she will be perceived as the Gore to Obama's Bush, giving in even though she actually won)

Obama will most likely still get the nomination, since the delegates understand the caucus/primary math problem. But the widespread perception that he lost the popular vote will cloud Obama's nomination. It will lead to endless arguments, all summer long, on how Michigan's votes should be counted.

I strongly believe that Obama will have a much easier and clearer path to the nomination if, after everyone votes, he leads in all 6 popular vote permutations. I think it is a worthy goal.

I am dismayed, angry, and aghast that Obama has prematurely begun focusing on the general election, visitng Michigan, Florida, and Missouri. He should be campaigning full speed in Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico.

Clinton is behind by 140+ pledged delegates due to her campaign's hubris and arrogance in believing that they did not need to pay attention to small caucus states in February. I feel like Obama's campaign may now be declaring premature victory due to hubris and arrogance, and it may lead to enormous problems for Obama.

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kenny blankenship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:36 AM
Response to Original message
1. Thank you, strange person, for your deeply felt concern
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NewHampshireDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 01:22 AM
Response to Reply #1
13. *snort*
:spray:
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kid a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
2. He is. Its over. nt
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
3. Pay Attention - He was in SD today, Oregon this week-end
I don't know his plans Mon and Tues, he has not abandoned the final states.
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kid a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. He's in Billings Monday - Got my tickets today: 10:45 am West High
;)
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Dems to Win Donating Member (245 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:55 AM
Response to Reply #3
10. No need to be snippy
Edited on Sat May-17-08 12:56 AM by Dems to Win
He received John Edwards endorsement in Michigan, not Kentucky. He had one short visit to Kentucky planned, but has now cancelled it.

He has announced plans to be in Florida for 3 days next week.

Yes, he's making some visits to upcoming states, but he is not concentrating his full atention on them.

He can attack Bush and McCain wherever he is.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. He's attacking them in his final states
No need to give Hillary attention by actively campaigning against her, that pretends that all her momentum nonsense has merit.

And nothing irks me more than people who make long drawn out posts attacking a Democrat when there is absolutely no basis to it whatsoever.

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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:39 AM
Response to Original message
4. Thank you for your concern.
Where you on the Clinton Blogger Call? I see talking points. Maybe you just picked up the info from another site ;)

She is NOT in the lead on popular vote. The only way popular vote works, is if you exclude the caucuses. The caucuses were legitimate races, and MI & FL were not. The rules are the rules, and although they will likely be seated, their votes will not determine the outcome (ie. they will not be full votes or seated as is). They have to reap some form of punishment for breaking the rules, otherwise in 4 years all of the other states will jump ahead and break the rules.

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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:41 AM
Response to Original message
5. He has been. But he's also been attacking McCain.
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grytpype Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:44 AM
Response to Original message
7. Obama and the entire country (minus HillBilly) is moving on to the general election.
Hil's new campaign slogan should be

IN YOUR GUTS YOU KNOW SHE'S NUTS
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:44 AM
Response to Original message
8. It's over. Get used to it.
and counting MI and yet giving Obama not one vote from there, is the only way hilly is ahead and it's something everyone but hillbots laughs at. Obama is 123 delegates from 2025. Next Wednesday he'll be 75 or less delegates from 2025. Axelrod says they have the SDs to put him over the top.

Obama will essentially claim victory next Wednesday after reaching 1627 pledged delegates. That's the Pelosi Club number and it will trigger the endorsements of those in Congress who said they'd endorse when he reaches that number.

Obama was is SD today. He's abandoned nothing. And everyone knows it'll be Obama and McCain. Expecting him to sit back and pretend the pukes aren't attacking him is assinie.
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NanceGreggs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 12:45 AM
Response to Original message
9. Well, there's a new one ...
"I don't want lots of people out there with the perception that the Democratic nomination contest has been a repeat of the 2000 Gore/Bush race, with OBAMA in the role of Bush."

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Lord Helmet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 01:08 AM
Response to Original message
12. oh BS he's campaigning hard and has to start the general election
because whasserface is being a pill
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