With Obama as the Democratic Nominee, Southern States can go for Obama in the GE

[powergirl]

This is great news and I hope the Obama campaign devotes a lot of resources to these states. So far, they have. I live in Texas and I think we are actually in play.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/16/us/politics/16south.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin

NEW ORLEANS — The sharp surge in black turnout that Senator Barack Obama has helped to generate in recent primaries and Congressional races could signal a threat this fall to the longtime Republican dominance of the South, according to politicians and voting experts.

(cut)

But in Southern states with large black populations, like Alabama, Mississippi and Virginia, an energized black electorate could create a countervailing force, particularly if conservative white voters choose not to flock to Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, predicts “the largest black turnout in the history of the United States” this fall if Mr. Obama is the nominee.

(cut)

Some analysts suggest that North Carolina and Virginia may even be within reach for the Democratic nominee, and they point to the surprising result in a Congressional special election in Mississippi this week as an indicator of things to come.
With the strong support of black voters, a conservative white Democrat, Travis W. Childers, scored an upset victory in that race, in a district held by Republicans since 1995. Kelvin Buck, a black state representative who helped the Childers campaign, said he saw a “level of enthusiasm and energy” that he had not seen before from black voters — significantly motivated, he said, by a recent Republican anti-Obama campaign.

The numbers appear to bear that out. In one black precinct in the town of Amory, Miss., the number of voters nearly doubled, to 413, from the Congressional election in 2006, and this for a special election with nothing else on the ballot. Meanwhile, in a nearby white precinct, the number of voters dropped by nearly half.


:woohoo:

[TexasObserver]

1. I believe we will pick off several southern states, border states, and western states

with Obama leading the ticket

He's going to win 30 states or more.

[Captain Hilts]

2. Wow. Keeping Bush out of office wasn't enough of a motivation to vote in past elections?

It's not about race....

[VotesForWomen]

14. yeah, i remember how everybody here was so sure dems were going to kick ass in 2004.

[Labors of Hercules]

3. If Texas and Arizona go to Obama...

I think we could effectively call it a REVOLUTION!!

[speedoo]

5. Arizona?

Look, I'm an optimist, but winning McCain's home state is not at all likely.

[Captain Hilts]

6. Gore and McGovern lost theirs. nt

[cloudythescribbler]

7. If Obama carries Texas in Nov 08, I will personally send you $100

I am that confident that Texas will remain Repug, at least in the prez election.

Another issue, though, is that increased turnout among black voters might impact NONpresidential elections, particularly Senatorial ones, in a progressive direction, even if Obama doesn't carry a given state.

I still think the VP nominee is an important pending decision. I am one of those who say, in SPITE of the fact that Dick Morris' analysis is in agreement, HILLARY WOULD REDUCE OBAMA'S vote rather than increase it. On the other hand, a strong female candidate would not only unify the party (there being no doubt many disappointed women out there), but could really help increase turnout among voters who Obama alone might not bring out to the polls. Barbara Boxer (long foreign policy resume, VERY popular, not much by way of baggage that I know of, VOTED AGAINST IRAQ WAR RESOLUTION) is my favorite, but very cogent suggestions of Gov Sebelius (who also opposed the IWR back when though not in the US Senate at the time) and Napolitano sound extremely good. Stabenow is another possibility. These candidates, or possibly Schweitzer, Kaine, Webb or Strickland could tip needed states and thus help in the GE.

Of the other candidates in the primaries, my guesstimate is that Richardson would be the strongest, though I am less enthusiastic about him than the boost someone like Boxer, Stabenow, Sebelius etc would mean for the ticket. With the right VP, Obama COULD carry at least close to 30 states, which I think is very optimistic.

I say that we should take no chances in being overconfident -- one year from today we could be looking at a President McCain, out to "win" the Iraq War before 2013 ...

maine, nh, vt, ri, ct, ma, ny, nj, pa, md, de, mi, wi, mn, ia, il, ca, hi, or, wa, nm, co ... getting to 30 is pretty difficult. if you count dc as a 'state', you'd need another 7 (in addition to these) ...??? nv, mo, wv, oh, fl (i think he'd need Boxer on the ticket to pull this last one off against McCain)... + two southern states? getting to 30 states, WAY more electoral votes than needed to win, would be QUITE a feat, even with the most politic choice imaginable of VP.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Obama winning 30 (first time) to happen.

[powergirl]

11. Here's a poll from May 5 - which shows Texas in play

It will be a hard campaign but the Dems are in a position to do it. The Republicans are terrified b/c it should not be this close - even in May:


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/election_2008_texas_presidential_election



Election 2008: Texas Presidential Election
Texas: McCain Holds Modest Lead Over Both Democrats
Monday, May 05, 2008 Email to a Friend
In Texas, John McCain leads Hillary Clinton by six percentage points and Barack Obama by five.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found McCain leading Clinton 49% to 43%. Against Obama, McCain attracts 48% of the vote while the Democrat earns 43%.

While the topline results are the same, the dynamics of the race is different depending upon the Democratic candidate. Clinton attracts 82% of the vote from Democrats in the state while Obama gets just 69%. However, Obama and McCain are essentially even among unaffiliated voters while Clinton trails by seventeen among those voters.

Just 67% of those who vote for Clinton against McCain would also vote for Obama. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Obama voters would also vote for Clinton.

McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of Texas voters, Obama by 51%, and Clinton by 45%. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.

[book_worm]

4. I think we will see surprises in the south and west with Obama heading the ticket.

[SparkyMac]

9. The biggest surprise will be a low turnout. IMO.

[thoughtcrime1984]

12. of Repubs, yes. nt

[george_maniakes]

8. Anybody have hard numbers on which southern states are vulnerable to an obama effect? n/t

[golddigger]

10. Yep, awhuh, sure...lmao

[CTLawGuy]

15. yeah you'd like him to lose wouldn't you...

NT

[avenger64]

18. Dittos - lmfao from south carolina.

McCain will win here, NC, GA, MS, AL by to points, and probably FL by the same.

[VotesForWomen]

13. heh. bookmarking.

[BlooInBloo]

16. Yah... not.

It'd sure be nice though. Maybe someday.

[otohara]

17. Obama Nation - Landslide

old people aren't going to want grandpa McCain taking over, anybody who wants the money & lost lives drain that is Iraq to end sooner vs later, the kids, African-American's, some republican's, many independents, democrats abroad, anyone with half a brain, Asian, Hispanic, Arab American's, southerners, northerners, east coast, west coast, the fucking heartland baby - white women, white men.

The choice will be as clear as the sky is blue.