Florida and Michigan Delegate Status - 5/17

[WillyT]

<snip>

With the looming 5/31 meeting of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, it seems that there is increasing pressure to find a workable solution that allows all sides to get most of what they want while saving face.

It may be that no one wants to find out how the RBC would try to cut the baby of Florida and Michigan in half, so it's in everyone's interests to find a solution that works.

In Michigan, a proposal has gathered the support of Michigan's Democratic party (including the governor and the state's Congressional delegation) to apportion the delegates 69/59, giving Clinton a 10 delegate "win" as the best possible solution given that Obama didn't even appear on the ballot in Michigan. Clinton has recently rejected the proposal, saying she wants the delegates seated "as is". This stance seems a bit odd, given that a.) the current results would give Clinton a 73-55 advantage, which is only 8 additional delegates than the compromise proposed (assuming that the 55 assigned to "Uncommitted" actually became Obama delegates), and b.) that the RBC is most likely to decide to cut Michigan's delegation in half unless a compromise is reached.

In Florida, the Obama campaign is starting to quietly suggest it can live with a compromise that gives Clinton another 10 delegate lead (the results were 113-74 for Clinton, a stronger 29 delegate win). Murkying the waters is Edwards - now that he has endorsed Obama his delegates are starting to switch to supporting Obama as well. Giving Edwards' 13 FL delegates to Obama cuts Clinton's advantage to just 16.

It appears that in Florida consensus is building that the RBC may just leave the election results in place and cut the delegation in half. The result of this would be Clinton 56.5, Obama 37 and Edwards 6.5; cutting Clinton's lead to either 19.5 or 13 depending on Edwards' delegates. Given the really small numbers involved here, I'm surprised Clinton is taking such a strong line against a compromise, given the likely reality. Obama is under political pressure to have a compromise in Florida worked out by May 20th, when he has a rally planned in Tampa.

So where does that leave things?

Michigan: A compromise plan endorsed by the state Democratic party that is being sent to the Rules and Bylaws committee is the most likely solution given Obama didn't appear on the ballot. Hillary ends up with a +10 delegate count and the Michigan superdelegates come into play.

Florida: No clear compromise plan in place, so I'd say the convention wisdom is the RBC cuts Florida's delegate count in half and leaves the election results in place, giving Hillary a +19.5 delegate bump, and the Edwards delegates become new quasi-supers, courted by both camps.

The situation is still very fluid but will likely come to a conclusion on or before the 5/31 committee meeting.

<snip>

Link: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/florida-and-michigan-delegate-status.html

:shrug:

[JeanGrey]

1. This reminds me of the child who never learns to not get his

own way because the parent threatens disciplinary action but in the end, caves to the wishes of the child.

[flor de jasmim]

2. That's been my take on it, as well.

[Zachstar]

8. Bingo!

[canucksawbones]

21. yup

I've stated that several times here.

GK

[TahitiNut]

24. It's ALL about the candidates and NOTHING about the voters!

The Post-FUBAR Kabuki is DISGUSTING. The people of the State of Michigan got fucked over. Insult added to injury. With the single exception of Obama's recent appearances in Grand Rapids and Macomb County Community College, NO DEMOCRATS have spent any MONEY or TIME campaigning in this state. They have not faced the voters and EARNED support in the state with the highest unemployment and region with the highest rate of home foreclosures.

I don't give a flying fuck if NOBODY gets to vacation in Denver in August. Fuck 'em. No matter how often folks call them 'delegates' they're NOT. There has been no valid process to DELEGATE anyone! The party insiders are serving themselves and NOBODY else. The party insiders, state and national, including the state parties of four states engaged in coercion to protect their privilege, created the FUBAR. It disgusts me.

[TexasObserver]

3. Hillary is playing to the crowd in Fla and Mich. She knows they won't get all the delegates.

This way she can say she didn't compromise, she "fought" for Fla and Michigan. Of course, she's only fighting for HER delegates.

She'll end up with an advantage of 20-30 delegates in both states, not enough to matter to the race.

I hope the DNC cuts their delegates in half, including cutting their supers in half, and is done with it.

[unlawflcombatnt]

20. I hope they give her the whole 47, and the supers swing her way

And the will of the majority of Democratic voters is served, instead of the will of the mainstream media and Obama-supporting Corporate donors.

[Zhade]

23. Keep dreaming, Obama will have earned the nomination when you wake up.

NT!

[sfaprog]

26. I hope for a puppy.

[Zachstar]

4. Thanks for the heads up!

[WillyT]

6. You Are Quite Welcome !!!

:hi:

[4themind]

5. How many super delegates Do FL and MI have combined? Thanks

[WillyT]

7. They Are Listed In Red Here:

Link (scroll down): http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

:hi:

[Zachstar]

9. Kick!

[grantcart]

10. Thanks for publishing this willy

we should also mention that the article is a contribution from a newcomer (to me) of demconwatch - Charlie Anthe

In the article he has good links to all of the likely compromises.

[WillyT]

11. No Problem GC !!!

Glad ta do it!

:bounce::hi::bounce:

[madfloridian]

12. Where is the consensus from for this option?

"It appears that in Florida consensus is building that the RBC may just leave the election results in place and cut the delegation in half. The result of this would be Clinton 56.5, Obama 37 and Edwards 6.5; cutting Clinton's lead to either 19.5 or 13 depending on Edwards' delegates. Given the really small numbers involved here, I'm surprised Clinton is taking such a strong line against a compromise, given the likely reality. Obama is under political pressure to have a compromise in Florida worked out by May 20th, when he has a rally planned in Tampa."

Frankly, I hope they do not use the results of Jan. 29. It is called breaking the rules. :shrug:

[grantcart]

13. I think that the compromise is that by cutting the numbers in half it eliminates any

real impact and it is better to take the issue away from Clinton so that there is no possibility of a floor fight - same with Michigan.

With Obama approaching 180 delegate lead he can give up a few delegates to take the issue off the table.

Once this issue is settled then the Clinton campaign has nothing more to really talk about.

[madfloridian]

14. Using the results of Jan 29 to get a figure really bothers me.

They could work up another set of figures, but to go strictly by them says why bother in the first place.

[grantcart]

15. I know but now its a question of timing we need to take it off the table

before the end of May - it also puts the Clinton campaign in a difficult position by using 1/29 results she can't really object and yet if she accepts there is absolutely no hope for the nomination. If she doesn't accept the compromise it will be seen that she is being unreasonable. Same with Michigan.

[madfloridian]

16. My mind knows that....but where I live it is every day every day...

the false outrage in the news, in the local Dems.

So the rest of me isn't handling this coddling of her very well.

[Tatiana]

19. I know it's not exactly "just" or "fair"

But I think it is a pill we all have to swallow in order to, as grantcart indicated, take this issue off the table and away from Clinton.

It shuts the whiners up and allows us to get on with the business of gearing up for the general election. It will also allow Obama to begin campaigning strongly in Florida and winning over the support of Dems there if he is shown to be the magnanimous one.

[democrattotheend]

18. At this point, I think it's fine if they count them all

It won't alter Obama's delegate lead. And I think I read somewhere that most of the Edwards delegates in Florida are now on board with Obama, which means she would net about 25 delegates.

[WillyT]

17. Kick !!!

:kick:

[2rth2pwr]

22. What are all the posters that have been advocating no delegates count in these 2 states?

I would think that to be consistent they protest these plans and demand that the peoples voice be silenced.

[Zhade]

25. Upthread. Open your eyes.

NT!

[2rth2pwr]

27. The poor darlings, their stance was just rhetoric, no principle. They are at

the whims of the decisions made by other people. Then they go out and parrot the new talking points.

Sad.