Kentucky County-level Projections based on Demographic Attributes

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Sat May-17-08 08:29 PM
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Kentucky County-level Projections based on Demographic Attributes

Edited on Sat May-17-08 08:31 PM by usregimechange

Where are the people?

Jefferson county, home of Louisville, has the highest population density by far of any county in Kentucky (KY). There are 1,802 people per square mile (ppsm) and a total of 693,604 (US Census 2000). This county comprises 17% of KY's total population. By means of comparison, the next highest population density in KY is Kenton county with 935 ppsm (note its much smaller land area).

Fayette County, which contains Lexington, has the second highest total population of 260,512 and a population density of 914 ppsm. The county is named after a French General who served in the American Revolutionary War.

Campbell, Kenton, and Boone County comprise the Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky metropolitan area. They have significant populations as indicated by both density and total population. Kenton county, which also contains the city of Covington, has a population of 151,464 people and a density of 935 ppsm. Campbell County has 88,616 people with a density of 583 ppsm. Boone County has 85,991 people with a growing population and a density of 350 ppsm.

African Americans in KY

Kentucky's African American population (7.5%) is close to half that of the national average (12.8%) but is still more than twice that of West Virginia (3.3%). The following explains where this population lives and in what concentration.

As you can see Christian and Fulton county (in dark green) have the highest concentration of African Americans in KY. Fulton county is very sparsely populated with only 7,752 total people of which 1,798 are African Americans. Christian county is moderately populated roughly 10 times that of Fulton (70,554 people, 17,148 Blacks). The seat of that population is Hopkinsville, which is 30.9% Black. Obviously, these two counties do not account for much of KY's 295,994 African American citizens but they do result in two Obama projections. So where are the bulk of KY's African Americans?

Louisville

There is a significant African American urban population of 84,586, residing mostly in Downtown West Louisville near the Ohio River. This comprises 33% of the cities relatively massive population. Louisville's African American population puts Jefferson county above the cutoff and as a result is projected for Obama. It is also above the national average in terms of educated citizens.

Fayette County contains a fair amount of Blacks because of north Lexington but it is below the Obama cutoff level. However, the county is projected for Obama for other reasons. The remainder of KY's African American population appears to be fairly evenly spread-out in small concentrations throughout western KY.

KY's Educated Population

KY is less educated than the national average but more so than West Virginia. KY has a educated population of 17.1% with a Bachelors degree or higher, which is less than the national average of 24.4% but also more than West Virginia (14.8%). Below are the details about where such individuals live.

Oldham County (just north of Jefferson county/Louisville) is not only the second most educated county in KY it is also the wealthiest. In fact, it was the 48th highest income county in the US per median household income in the 2000 Census. The county is well educated with 30.6% with a Bachelors degree or higher. It is projected to Obama.

Fayette County is home to Lexington and the University of Kentucky. It is the highest educated county in KY with 35.6% with a Bachelors or higher. It is a major Obama stronghold.

There are a number of counties that border Fayette with well educated and more affluent citizens. Woodford County was above the educational cutoff and the national average with 25.9% with a Bachelors degree or higher.

Warren County is a southern KY county with an educational concentration above the state and national average. This is due in large part to the presence of Western KY University and Bowling Green Technical College.

Jefferson county (Louisville) has already been projected for Obama based on its African American concentration but as I stated above it is also well educated. It has a number of educational institutions including the University of Louisville, which was founded in 1798.

The elderly and the young

Counties projected for Clinton include those in dark green. These counties tend to be a rural areas and concentrated mostly in south KY. Not all were projected for Clinton due to the presence of demographic attributes that could assist Obama.

Whites

KY is 90.2% white, which is 10% less than the national average. High concentrations of whites can be found most notably in eastern KY.

Again, a number of projections for Clinton have been made in eastern KY due to high concentrations of whites but also for another reason...

Income

This is perhaps the most important map for conceptualizing KY's geopolitical landscape. East KY is West Virginia. Clinton will own this region.

Conclusions

There simply is not enough citizens that have demographic characteristics that favor Obama in KY. While he does have a number of areas that will go for him and I predict will do significantly better than he did in WV, the statewide data indicates a sizable disadvantage. KY is less educated, less racially diverse, and is older than the national average. Obama will win Lousiville/Lexington, some surrounding counties, will likely win in some of the Cincinnati suburban counties, a few in the southwest but not by wide enough margins. In addition, the entire eastern half of the state will go to Clinton.

Projections