Obama will have the majority of delegates with pick up in KY (updated)

[ProSense]

Current delegate totals: Obama 1904, Hillary 1717
Obama +187

Hillary's best case scenario:

Hillary wins Kentucky 65% to 35%

Obama gets 18 out of 51 Kentucky delegates and clinches the nomination

Delegate totals with Kentucky: Obama 1922, Hillary 1750
Obama +172

Obama wins Oregon 52% to 48%

Delegate totals with Kentucky and Oregon: Obama 1949, Hillary 1775
Obama +174

Delegate counter

Obama picks up delegates in Kan., Md., Nev.

14.5 PLEDGED DELEGATES needed for a majority

115 TOTAL DELEGATES needed for the nomination



Edited title to reflect delegates.

Update:

For those who are still spinning FL and MI, the scenarios leave Hillary 156 to 178 delegates behind Obama.

Obama then needs 138 to 153 to reach the required delegate count.

After KY and OR, Hillary will need 305 to 309 delegates to reach the required delegate count.

Problem: Only 86 pledged delegates are up for grabs after May 20.

[ProSense]

1. No comment?

Play around with the delegate counter. That's all that's left to do, well, that and waiting for Hillary to concede.

[Zachstar]

2. Thanks for the math!

[ProSense]

6. Why do people hate math?

It's fun and hard to spin.

[phrigndumass]

23. Definitely! (lol)

I enjoy reading your posts, ProSense!

:hi:

[rocktivity]

3. After WV, how wonderfully ironic that he can get all 15 delegates from KY

with as little as 30% of the vote.

:woohoo:
rocknation

[ProSense]

4. FL and MI scenario added to OP. n/t

[rocktivity]

12. My bad! I should have written that Obama would clinch the DELEGATE LEAD

--not the nomination--by picking up 15 pledged delegates from KY with as little as 30% of the vote.

:headbang:
rocknation

[ossman]

5. wont it be OR that puts him over since their results will come in after KY?

[slinkerwink]

7. It'll put him more over the top

[MonkeyFunk]

8. He need 2025 to have a majority of the delegates

currently. right?

[ProSense]

10. No. n/t

[MonkeyFunk]

13. How do you figure?

there are 4049 delegates currently, without MI and FL.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/02/delegate.explainer/index.html

[PM7nj]

14. Majority of *pledged* delegates.

4049 is including superdelegates.

[MonkeyFunk]

22. Ah, so the OP

is wrong. Misleading.

[PM7nj]

25. *Obama will have the majority of pledged delegates with pick up in KY

There, completely true! :)

[MonkeyFunk]

26. That's fine

but the OP is still misleading - deliberately so. But I don't expect some of the Obama fans here to ever tell the truth.

[Zhade]

11. Nope.

NT!

[yellowcanine]

9. But math is so......boring. We would rather talk about "electibility" in GE.

[DemVet]

15. He clinches the lead...but not the NOMINATION.

He needs to have 2025 to do that.

Having the lead is like leading a football game at the end of the third quarter.

Fourth quarter coming up...the convention.

[tekisui]

17. I would call the Convention overtime.

And, we are in the last minutes of the fourth quarter. The signals from team Clinton have been sent out, I don't think it will go to the Convention. It will go until Mid-June at the absolute latest.

[cali]

18. Sorry, it won't go t o the convention. Even Hillary is no longer suggesting

it will. Obama is only 120 delegates from 2025. By next Wednesday he'll be around 60 away from it. He'll be at 2025 by June 4- or at whatever number he needs to become the presumptive nominee. Hillary doesn't have the resources to take it to the Convention, and by putting Obama over the top the SDs will have sent her an unmistakable message: Time to concede.

[quantass]

19. He clinches the majority which as we are seeing is sealing the nomination

via the landslide of superdelegate support....he should clinch the nomination on or before June 3rd at this rate.

[MindMatter]

24. If it the landslide isn't over on Wednesday, it will be by the weekend.

After Tuesday, there is no reason for any "Pelosi club" SD to hold back.

[tekisui]

16. Will we get the big fundraising numbers Monday?

That would be a good time to start a great few days of press. The money on Monday, with a few SD's. A big OR win, big speech in Iowa on Tuesday. A flood of SD's from Pelosi Club and more on Wednesday. A trip to Florida, with (fingers crossed) Al Gore.

This should be a good week.

[quantass]

20. My guess is the numbers come out on Wednesday

[tekisui]

21. They have to be out by the 20th, I guess a late night release

would hit the airwaves on Wednesday AM.