A Dreamier Democratic 'Dream' Ticket (Obama/ Sebelius 2008)

[oldpol]

A Dreamier Democrat 'dream ticket'
By David Lundberg




Kathleen Sebelius would enhance Obama's electoral appeal and the political efficacy of his Presidency. Senator Barack Obama's campaign has not yet achieved a majority at the 2008 Democratic National Convention, but his ultimate victory over Hillary Clinton is no longer in doubt.

The Democratic "Super-delegates" are moving in increasing numbers to Obama, and he has just received the important endorsement of former rival John Edwards. When he becomes the Democratic party's presumptive nominee (with a majority of Convention delegates indicating their support) Barack Obama will need to choose his running mate.

This is an analysis of the merits of one possible scenario: Kathleen Sebelius, Governor of Kansas, as Obama's vice presidential running mate.

To be clear, an Obama-Sebelius 'dream ticket' is not a forecast or a prediction, but a possible scenario.

The Clintons previously proposed a Clinton-Obama 'dream ticket' as a nomination campaign tactic, when criticism began to grow about the divisive effects of the continuing campaign. Others have proposed an Obama-Clinton ticket, but that would be more like a nightmare.

Superficially, the two complement each other's demographic support base very well. Hillary Clinton has been supported primarily by middle-aged and older women, white working-class and less well educated voters. Barack Obama has attracted his strongest support among a substantial new cohort of younger voters, African-Americans, affluent and more educated voters. However, a joint ticket between Obama and Clinton is probably no longer a viable proposition, if it ever was.


'Dog whistlers'

During the South Carolina primary, Bill Clinton asserted that Hillary could not win because more than half of the Democratic primary voters were black. This was a clumsy and unsuccessful "dog whistle" appeal for support from white Democrat voters in the numerous "super Tuesday" primaries that followed soon afterward. Bill Clinton's remarks were followed promptly by strong endorsements by the Kennedy family, who objected to the Clintons' "dog whistle" tactics. Senator Geraldine Ferraro and others subsequently also attempted to advantage Hillary Clinton by depicting Barack Obama as a marginal black candidate. Recently, Bill Clinton even accused Barack Obama of "playing the race card" against Clinton in South Carolina, in a rhetorical inversion of reality.

Hillary Clinton is of highly questionable value as a Vice Presidential running mate on an Obama Presidential ticket. Hillary Clinton's populist campaigning (particularly threatening nuclear annihilation of Iran) calls into question her suitability for presidential office. Politically, Hillary has intensified her polarising conventional politics image that is completely inconsistent with the unifying theme of Obama's candidacy.

Mobilisation of Republicans would be greatly assisted by having Hillary Clinton on the Democratic party ticket. She would come with a large nomination campaign debt.


Superior choice

Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas is an altogether superior choice as Obama's vice presidential running mate. Kathleen Sebelius was elected as a Democrat Governor in strongly Republican Kansas in 2002 with 53 per cent and re-elected in 2006 with 57.8 per cent, proving a dazzling political talent.

She has been a highly effective Governor, turning a large state deficit into a surplus without a real increase in taxes, and improved funding for education. She has a reputation for achieving sustained bipartisan cooperation and is married to a Federal magistrate who is the son of a Kansas Republican congressman.

In 2005, Time magazine judged her one of the five best US governors. She was recently convener of the Democratic Governors' Association, reflecting the respect of her colleagues. Sebelius' father is a former Governor of Ohio, an important federal swing state. She is an articulate speaker with a presentation style that would complement Obama's.

Kathleen Sebelius would enhance Obama's electoral appeal and the political efficacy of his Presidency. She has personally endorsed Obama, and her policy record is very complementary to his, although she is somewhat more centrist. She appeals to a broad spectrum of American voters, including most of those who would have voted for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries. Sebelius is a unifying politician like Obama, and she is a highly successful one, as her election winning margins in Republican Kansas and her successful bipartisan dealings with the Kansas State Congress indicate.

An Obama-Sebelius ticket would combine well with Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean's advocacy of building the Democratic party with a 50-state presidential campaign, not one simply focused on winning an Electoral College victory. The Republican party would have every reason to be demoralised.


Complementary

Why would a successful State Governor like Kathleen Sebelius give up that responsibility to acquire the office of Vice President that earlier generations of US politicians regarded with something approaching dread? Vice Presidents Al Gore and Dick Cheney have had a much more active and substantial role in the office than most of their predecessors.

Kathleen Sebelius' executive experience would complement Obama's legislative background, providing scope for her to have substantial Vice Presidential responsibilities from January 2009 to January 2017, instead of retiring in 2010 at the end of her second term as Governor.

Kathleen Sebelius would be the first woman Vice President. She would also make a substantial contribution to an historic Obama presidency that would change how Americans see themselves and how the US is perceived by others.

Substantial policy change in the US is needed. USA Today on April 21, 2008 reported that record numbers of US voters have expressed disapproval of President Bush and concern about the direction of national policy, and 69 per cent of US voters judge that Bush's presidency has been a failure.

The Republican Party will be in trouble in November 2008, and it has already begun using polarising and destructive negative tactics against Obama and other Democratic candidates, including subtle and blatant racism.

As the 2008 Republican presidential candidate, John McCain will have considerable difficulty separating himself from the Bush legacy, particularly US economic difficulties and Iraq, on which McCain and the Republican Party have nothing new to offer.

An Obama-Sebelius 'dream ticket' is a scenario that would offer substantial advantages in the November 2008 US election and as the new leadership of the United States from January 2009.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/15/2245217.htm

[mac2]

1. People won't buy it.

[JCMach1]

12. Obama needs to go for deep experience and/or electoral concerns

While I admire the KS Gov., she doesn't provide that.

[hokies4ever]

13. Change trumps experience this election

as Hillary found out and as the Republicans are finding out. Sebelius does have a good amount of experience as a governor, real executive experience. Plus she has experience of reaching across the aisle to get things done. Also experience reversing a state's financial crisis.

[mmonk]

17. A two term governor is considered experienced.

[JCMach1]

19. National Security, specifically...

Also, we will lose KS, regardless...

[mmonk]

20. Well I guess that's where the any split in our ranks lies

Whether the VP choice should be military/security linked or not.

[JCMach1]

21. We need both... someone like Wes Clark, or Bob Graham

or, if we go for the West, why not Gary Hart?

[mmonk]

22. I don't have any problem with the aforementioned.

I doubt it's imperative though.

[JCMach1]

25. IF she was gov of MI, PA, or OH

it would be a no-brainer.

[mmonk]

26. I still think it's a no brainer (since I support her in the VP spot)

but I'm flexible and will be behind whomever Obama chooses.

[oldpol]

30. but in in Ohio... :)

and that's been of paramount importance the last two elections

[splat]

2. Never heard of her -- this must be a very local dream

[hokies4ever]

14. Wake up from your political coma

She's been one of the favorites to win the V.P. position ever since Obama became the front-runner in February. Next you'll tell me you don't know who Tim Pawlenty is either.

[Jennifer C]

18. I'm not even in America, and I have heard of her

[thoughtcrime1984]

3. She'd be great and I would back that ticket wholeheartedly! nt

[grytpype]

4. Obama's VP is going to be a white male, either military or from a key swing state.

Not a female senator from Kansas.

[muryan]

6. Female governor*

I would disagree. I don't think Obama is going to make huge inroads into the white male vote regardless of who he picks. I think he can crush McCain in the female vote given 6 months to campaign with a female running mate.

[mac2]

11. You mean he could lose?

[muryan]

32. I think it will be closer than necessary with a weak VP pick

Anything that effectively adds to his base will make it a blowout, which is what I'm hoping for.

[hokies4ever]

15. Why do you think this?

Last I checked, Obama gets the last say as to who his V.P. will be.

[muryan]

5. She would be incredible on the ticket

Of all the names I've seen offered up as a VP candidate, she is one of my favorite choices. If you haven't heard of her, I suggest you look into it

[Occam Bandage]

7. I'd love to see Sebelius. I'd prefer her to Webb.

[butterfly77]

8. We don't need a woman...

just because hillary is not winning..

[hokies4ever]

16. She's been one of the favorites for V.P. from the get go

Don't just assume that she's a favorite because she's a woman either. Very demeaning.

[cloudbase]

9. Texas had the Sanchez-Kirk "dream team"

back in '02. That didn't work out too well. I suspect this "dream team" would meet the same fate.

This country has come a long way to where most people don't think twice about a woman or a Black man heading a party ticket. I don't think it's come far enough to where people are ready to accept the twofer.

[mac2]

10. 140 posts from Sebelius headquarters?

[sfam]

24. Do question the motives of everyone who disagrees with you?

Some of us feel Sebelius would be the best VP choice. The Washington Post put her in first place recently in looking at the VP-stakes. Fact is, many think she's make a good choice - many people even outside of Sebelius' headquarters.

[sfam]

23. John McCain picks a woman if Obama does not..

This would make perfect sense for McCain. Its a great way to capitalize on independent and left-leaning woman who perhaps wanted Clinton to win more for her gender than anything else. If Obama and Clinton patch things up wonderfully, and we see the signs that her supporters will enthusiastically embrace him, I don't think he needs to go this way. But if not, I think Sebelius is a terrific choice - and may be a terrific choice anyways.

[RichGirl]

27. This would be the nightmare ticket.

She's a nice lady, but an unknown and a lightweight, with the personality and excitement of a Sunday School teacher.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY4rgdPjlTE

BTW, the video lasts about 10 minutes, I challenge anyone to listen to the whole thing without dozing off!

The VP has to ADD to the ticket by offering what Obama lacks. Obama offers hope and inspiration, he needs the VP to offer strength and experience. Keep in mind, the VP takes over if something happens to the pres. Sebellius is not presidentail material.

[mmonk]

28. Add, not compete.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Sebelius.

[RichGirl]

29. I can see the Sebellius ads now...

KATHLEEN SEBELLIUS: THERE'S NOTHING WRONG WITH HER. LOL!

I think she has to have more going for her than that. I didn't say there was anything wrong with her. If we want to win in November then we need a really strong ticket. She would not make it a strong ticket, she would make it look weaker.

[Mabus]

31. It could be catastrophic for Kansas politics

It is too soon. Her lieutenant governor is the recently-converted-to-Democrat former GOP State chairman. He's a moderate to conservative former Republican. He isn't the only one. Most of the other moderate to conservative Republicans in Kansas haven't so much embraced the Democratic Party as much as they are coming to us rather than vote for the general election candidate chosen by the fundies in the primaries.

You have to understand that in Kansas there are three factions of the Republican party in Kansas: the radical fundies, the conservatives and the moderates. The moderates always lose out to the conservatives and the conservatives are losing out to the fundies. As a result, the moderate Republicans end up voting for the Democrat in the general and the conservatives either don't vote or split their vote. That's actually how Kathleen was elected the first time. She beat the fundie candidate after the fundie candidate knocked the conservative-moderate guy out in the primary.

Right now a good number of Republicans who were changing party affiliations in Kansas are signing up as Unaffiliated/Independent rather than as Democrats. We need time. We're still building the Democratic party in Kansas. Although Republicans are defecting. In some areas they are defecting in droves. They are defecting but they aren't exactly buying. They still have a lot of misconceptions about the Democratic Party and we need time to gain their trust and continuing to push Kansas to the left.

If Kathleen left, Mark Parkinson would become our governor. And until 2003 Parkinson was the chair of the Kansas GOP and he had held various elected offices as a Republican since 1990. He became a Democrat almost exactly two years ago today. If Kathleen leaves we'll end up with Parkinson and will stay in the conservative center politically rather than to continue our political move to the left. For instance, Kathleen just vetoed a bill for a coal power plant based on the CO2 emissions. She cited the climate crisis and appointed an advisory committee to make recommendations on developing clean energy alternatives in Kansas. I don't see Parkinson carrying on some of the initiatives that Kathleen has going.

Another thing that gets conservative Republicans out to vote are conservative Democrats, not moderate Democrats. The KCK area keeps electing Democrat Dennis Moore because Dennis is a conservative, Blue Dog Dem. He's conservative but has appeal to the moderates. In the end, he'll always vote safe. On the other hand, we have Kathleen at the top of the party which is helping to embolden Kansas Democrats to lean a little more left. If Kathleen leaves, I'm afraid that Kansas will snap back to the right of center with Mark at the top of the party.

[yodermon]

33. I still like Wes Clark. n/t