Hillary will drop out this week, most likely on Thursday May 22

[rhombus]

Two factors that draw me to this conclusion:

1. After Tuesday's primaries in Oregon and Kentucky, more superdelegates are going to endorse Barack, making it much more difficult for the Clinton campaign to seek to overturn Obama's pledged delegate lead.

2. Fundraising.
The Clinton campaign is $20 million and counting in debt. This week, the April FEC reports are going to be released. This comes at a very inopportune time for the Clinton campaign as they seek to impress the superdelegates. People are going to question the wisdom of her campaign piling up so much debt.


What will follow -- You are going to see some very prominent Clinton supporters asking Hillary to bow out. The voices from her own camp will grow so loud even Hillary won't be able to ignore them.

[Crabby Appleton]

1. nope. nt

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Wednesday?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Good to know.

[Boz]

4. That has been the situation since pennsylvania, hasn't changed her "reality" before

Shes not going any where, at least until June 6

[nxylas]

5. Fundraising is what makes me think she'll stay in till June

Once she drops out, the donors will dry up. How's she going to persuade any more little boys to sell their bikes and video games in order to pay off her debts after that?

[MindMatter]

13. I can't see her getting much donor support at this stage

She had a lot of people who typed a lot in support of her, but they evidently didn't donate much, so they aren't likely to start now. And her "professional funders" know the score.

[rhombus]

15. I honestly think after PA the Clinton campaign thought they had a shot

But after IN and NC, all that hope went out the window for her campaign. Taking care of over 300 full time staff on two weeks salary is not small change. At least a $10 million figure. She has greater incentive to bow out sooner than later.

[MindMatter]

21. It wasn't numerically over after PA

but when Obama ended up winning the day in Texas, that sealed it. She needed to gain 50-70 delegates that day to have had a chance. When we see the finance reports, I believe we will find that the well went dry right about that time.

Everything that has happened since then is Clinton vanity.

[baldguy]

6. I won't hold my breath

[thoughtcrime1984]

7. Nope, she will wait until June 3 or 4

All of the primaries will be heard, and why not? We've come this far and Hillary has stopped all attacks on Obama. At this point, let's appreciate the fact that all the primaries will have been contested, and that the Democratic Party has registered a tremendous amount of new voters. Two more weeks are not going to hurt anybody in the current environment.

[Jackpine Radical]

8. There might even be some slight advantage accruing

from keeping the show alive (albeit on life support).

[John Q. Citizen]

12. Yep, she's more help in than out at this point. Her recent talk about party

unity after the primaries is actually helpful.

If she can raise enough to help her with her campaign debt, that's not a bad thing.

As long as she stays positive, I have no problem with contested primaries.

[Major Hogwash]

9. More than likely, she's $30 million dollars in debt. But, she won't stop until June 3rd.

She may never concede, she may never endorse, but I don't think she will drop out before every state has had their primary.

[frogcycle]

27. hell, she as much as endorsed after WV

In her victory speech she said (approximation): "I will work to elect whomever is the Democratic nominee"

[invictus]

10. Never underestimate the size of Hillary's ego or her willingness to destroy the Democratic Party ...

... for her own personal gain. Hillary will stay in the race until the convention in Denver is concluded and Obama is officially named the Democratic candidate for President. Hillary likely believes, defying all reason, that by staying in "something" could happen that would end Obama's candidacy and allow her to step up and fill his shoes. That "something," I'm sure, is being cooked up by the Clintons' team of dirty tricksters such as Carville and McAuliffe.

[Rob_4_Obama]

17. I agree-She won't concede until Obama is the official nominee

She's a "fighter". ugh.

[Labors of Hercules]

24. As an Obama supporter working for his campaign...

I would encourage you not to be so pessimistic about Hillary's attitude toward the party and toward Barack who she KNOWS will be the nominee. There are so many issues still at play right now. Give her til June 4th, then if you still think she's "cooking up dirty tricks", feel free to shout about it.

[Donkeykick]

11. Look...

I'm a Hillary supporter, OK? And even I know that Barack Obama has this thing.

Now go forth and get a life my young Jedi. :P

[Ken Burch]

23. I'm glad you accept that Obama's got it. I know how hard it is to come around

To things like that.

We need you.

[Donkeykick]

26. What can I tell you?

I'm a democrat. :shrug:

[powergirl]

14. Obama's campaign will end up paying for the Clinton Campaign to take a trip

to Puerto Rico. Because they won't be able to pay that back.

[Condem]

16. Nah, rhombus

June 4. She goes the distance.

[Duke Newcombe]

18. Would that it were...

...but unfortunately, she's going to ride that firey 747 of a campaign of hers all the way down. I'd be mightily surprised if she did-so don't hold your breath.

Duke

[ekwhite]

19. Another speculative post

I still predict she won't drop out until after June 3rd. I'm not too worried about it either way, at this point. The Obama campaign has already switched to General Election mode.

[AllentownJake]

20. At least May 31

She's in it till at least May 31 for the Florida and Michican thing. Than its only 3 days till the Primary in. If she isn't taking it to the convention it will be soon after June 3.

[atufal1c]

28. Her posture is so strange.

The way that she is still screaming, "I never quit!", "I'm a fighter!", "I don't give up!" ,"They'll have to drag my dead ass out of here!", I gotta believe that she is waiting for ironclad proof that it is over. And even then, her rhetoric is SO strong this close to what has to be the end, that it is still going to feel surreal when she finally quits.

[Occam Bandage]

22. This has all been the case for weeks.

[atufal1c]

25. Why before the Rules Committee makes its decision on 5/31?

That way she'll have something to point to as the reason why the odds (and the party) are against her.

I fought for you, Michigan and Florida. Remember that in 2012.

[Youphemism]

29. She Won't Go Away

First, she's pretty much promised her followers that she will campaign in all the remaining places. Her public campaigning has turned away from the negative. I'm sure she realizes that negative campaigning at this point would cause that superdelegate flood to Obama she dreads.

Her campaign conference calls and things people are doing behind the scenes are more questionable, but at this point, it's still probably just as well for her to keep it going. Look at all those people who turned out in Oregon... That would not have happened if she quit. As long as she keeps it toned down, it's not a big deal.

However, she will still be in it until August. The most that can be hoped is that sometime in June, she will *suspend* her candidacy. There is not a chance in Hell (or even Cleveland) that she will drop out of the race completely. She's still hoping for some big catastrophe to put her back in the race. Also, she wants to keep being a player. Unless someone in the DNC has a big mallet that none of us know about, nobody is going to knock her delegates loose before August.

This, of course, is just a cheapo opinion. But it seems to me that this is the way it's been heading. First, we heard "Just wait until June 3rd." Then, people were saying "Sometime in June." Soon after June 3rd, we'll hear some reason for her to just suspend her campaign, and why that's better for all democrats.

[AlinPA]

30. I'm predicting she tries to change the 2025 to 2210 with the rules committee on May31; if

that does not work look for a lawsuit against the DNC. She is in this to the end.

[Bensthename]

31. She will finish out the primaries. Why go 1.5 yrs then quit 2 weeks short?

The remaining states are cheap to campaign in and this is too close to over.

[Labors of Hercules]

32. Actually, it won't matter what she does after May 20th.

She can stay in it or go ahead and wrap it up... Either way the party will be celebrating that Obama is the presumptive nominee, and I promise you after next week, Hillary will no longer be functioning as an "opponent".

[DeepBlueC]

33. She can't decrease debt without a campaign

I heard a couple of weeks ago on KO that the debt is an incentive to hang in as a candidate may not accept campaign contributions unless the campaign is still on. She may need to get help to get OUT of the campaign. Kind of a Catch 22 position to be in, sounds like.

[BearSquirrel2]

34. This strategy was more sound ...

This strategy was more sound when she was only $10 million in debt.