Strange Happenings: the dog that didn't bark.

[grantcart]

Sherlock Holmes solves a case by famously observing that the dog didn't bark because it was the owner that returned in the middle of the night to commit the murder when everyone thought he was out of town.


This weekend the most interesting things to note are the things that didn't happen:

1) The absence of surrogates. They started to vanish last week. Yes John Edwards made an endorsement and then was gone. All of the other surrogates were largely absent by Friday. When the big dust up started this week about the Idiot in Chief's treasonous remarks in Israel Obama's remarks versus Bush/McCain were echoed by others but they seemed to stay largely off camera, it was Obama stepping up by himself.

On Sunday the surrogates for the Clinton and Obama campaign were largely absent from the talk shows. Terry took his Baghdad Bob routine to the Colorado where he presented some great comic relief. Pres. Clinton gave a bipartisan speech that gave the impression that he really was equally happy with either candidate.

2) The Obama campaign stopped the Super Delegate show. This weekend they picked up 5 super delegates but they were the add ons who were publicly chosen. When another pledged delegate turned on Hillary they hushed it up and refused to count it. The Obama campaign had been marching out 4-5 super delegates out every day. There are still 'unannounced' super delegates from Illinois and Hawaii that they haven't brought out yet.

3) No one has made the slightest peep about the April funding figures. This has never happened - usually they are out at the beginnig of the month. Now three weeks has passed and the campaigns are still silent. If you had bad news to spread you would normally start leaking it out so that it softens the blow and you can control the spin. Nada nothing.

4) The Edwards pledged delegates stopped endorsing Obama. They were coming out on a regular schedule on Thursday and Friday and stopped.

Coming events

Tuesday

KY/OR Primaries Obama reaches the Pelosi number and presumably a substantial number of SDs who have stated that they won't over turn the pledged delegates. Speaker Pelosi, President Carter, Senators Murray and Cantwell are among the few.

Senator Obama will only be about 50 delegates away from clinching the nomination. He is going to Iowa to make a speech aimed at focusing on the General Election.

Wednesday

The campaigns have to release their April fund raising figures.


Obama goes to Florida for a 3 day tour - When Obama went to Michigan he brought Edwards.


Whatever is happening it seems as if we turned a corner on Friday.


It feels like an orchestration of dogs not barking.



oh on edit I forgot the new Gallup which is reflecting what all the poles are showing a widening gap

[last1standing]

1. Are you suggesting that Hillary snuck back and killed Howard Dean?

:wow:

Just kidding all. :D

I think you're on to something there, Sherlock.

[grantcart]

6. lol well that would only fit if he was staying at her house

[last1standing]

21. She thinks he is.

:evilgrin:

[Tinksrival]

13. Oh Boy! You got me good!That was a spray post!

:spray: Out my nose! Cranberry juice!

:rofl:

[thoughtcrime1984]

2. Are you saying that an Obama/Clinton ticket will be announced in FL?

Or am I reading too much into this?

[grantcart]

5. I am absolutely not saying that

but maybe Clinton announces that she is suspending her campaign and is doing that from Florida.


Obama is a cool cat and I can't see him rushing into any quick decision.


Somthing is going to happen in Florida - maybe its Gore.

[thoughtcrime1984]

14. That could be, but I think Hillary will compete through June 3

Might as well, we're so close to the end anyway. I could see Gore or Jimmy Carter endorsing, or perhaps Pelosi, but I could see her waiting until June 4. Florida would be quite the symbolism if it were Gore, for certain.

[cliffordu]

15. I was thinking about the two of them being near the same place at

the same time. Florida is fine.

Wanna heal the party in one evening??


After next Tuesday, the votes come in, the money figures are released...

The stupordelegates do their magic....

He goes to some function on Friday...She pops in, joins him onstage, says..."I'm going to suspend my campaign and support Obama full time. charge towards the anti-climactic convention.

Drop balloons, crush repubicant's. have fun. Watch Pat Buchanan's head explode

The Primaries board goes apoplectic.

[grantcart]

18. and every democrat would go fuckin nuts

[cliffordu]

23. Yep - It'd be perfect. The press with their "democrats divided"

bullshit, the pundits splitting hairs.....ALL of them would go insane...

By that next Tuesday we have every major Dem on the stump, killing the NEOCONS and outwardly MOCKING every talking point the Replugs have.....

A democratic party united, attacking the republicans on every front. Shock and Awe, indeed.

[Boz]

27. Hmm, Gore in Florida,party symbolism to the nth degree,take back the stolen,with a side of Hillary

Suspending.

BOOM.

[Boz]

29. Or maybe not Gore or Hillary suspend, But Hillary and Obama on one stage standing all democratic

Against McCain.

Blah, Blah, Blah, two good candidates, blah blah blah, in a few days we start the challenge together united, one of us leading and one of us standing together to take back the white house blah blah blah, Gore and carter and Kerry and Dean and Edwards and Biden and so on all in one place, one voice, one challenge

[datopbanana]

3. maybe he stopped the trickle for a burst after Tues

[AllentownJake]

4. Tuesday nights speeches

will be very telling.

[BlooInBloo]

7. Totally OT, but your post reminded me of this book:

"The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time"
http://psychservices.psychiatryonline.org/cgi/content/full/54/12/1661

A very good read.

[anigbrowl]

8. That's the name of the original Sherlock Holmes story.

[BlooInBloo]

9. Hmm.... mebbe I screwed it up... checking...

[BlooInBloo]

17. Huh - look at that - same name - cool!

http://www.amazon.com/Curious-Incident-Dog-Night-Time/dp/1400032717/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1211175309&sr=8-1

[grantcart]

20. looks interesting

[John Q. Citizen]

10. It's an interesting analysis you present, only lacking a clear conclusion, instead hinting at one.

I think they want to make sure the primary voters (OR and KY) put Obama over the Pelosi line, and not supers, and they plan to quietly roll out enough supers in the next 2 weeks so that MT and SD voters put Obama over the 2024 mark.

And both campaigns know this and have essentially entered into a truce. Clinton will continue to positively promote her campaign (and avoid the negative against Obama) Obama will concentrate on McCain, and the party will have a definitive and universally accepted presumptive candidate on June 3rd.

[grantcart]

11. rolling out the supers doesn't have any impact on the pelosi number

By wednesday morning they are going to be very very close to 2025 and with the Edwards delegates, the Pelosi Club it will be very hard to actually freeze it for 2 smaller states.

It appears that they are going to Florida with some big news and I think some big guns.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

12. her followers are planning to protest at the DNC on May 31

so someone needs to nip that in the bud.

[Hutzpa]

19. Yup!

Good catch....

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

22. well that is the alternative universe sometimes known as Florida

[Gore1FL]

24. I agree

though it is probably sure thing out of KY itself. 15-20 out of 52 is nearly a given. 15-20 out of 112 for the entire night is absolute.

But, again, I agree. History is a better argument than future projection.

[anonymous171]

16. It's to hedge the bitterness and encourage party unity/healing.

[unblock]

25. perhaps obama is orchestrating one massive endorsement day when he "goes over"

at this point, the steady trickly of endorsements is not great news, and getting a majority of pledged delegates and simply continuing the trickly of supers is not exciting.

however, getting a majority of pledged delegates followed briskly by hundreds and hundreds of superdelegates and an announcement of support from the clintons would be considerably more dramatic.

we're moving into the coronation / product rollout phase; let's hope we've learned some lessons and make a good show of it for a change!

[dbmk]

26. K/R - Yet another good post

Tell me, gc, do you think we might see a waiting game develop where they wait and see who McCain picks in order to pick the best counter for whoever that might be?

Could it be an idea to keep the press waiting on it a bit, as they seem a lot more interested in who he picks than who McCain picks, to keep the MSM talking Obama?

[quantass]

28. great read

[Secret_Society]

30. Call me crazy, but...

I think we may have struck a VP deal.

[shadowknows69]

31. That's the same theory I've seen used

to explain how Bush knew about 9/11. Oh shit, I didn't just get this thread tossed in the dungeon did I?

[mamalone]

32. Very interesting!

I sit here in a deep state of admiration of your analytical skills:)

and this type of post is why I love DU. I could never figure out all of these particulars on my own.

[eridani]

34. And then the real surprise-

--grantcart tells us who s/he really is! Well, OK, those internets tubes have allowed a lot of talented amateurs to have considerable influence, but there's somehing hinting ar 'experienced professional' here too.

[Kukesa]

35. You may be Sherlock, eridani. I think you're on to something. n/t

[mamalone]

36. grantcart complimented a post of mine once...

It completely made my day:) We are very fortunate to have folk like him sharing his wisdom with us, aren't we?

[grantcart]

47. your very kind

[H2O Man]

33. Correct

Nominated

[KittyWampus]

37. there is zero chance Hillary will stop campaigning til early June. ZERO.

[meow mix]

38. my dogs bark at anything that moves, including me =(

little bastards would give me up in a second lol

[tekisui]

39. And, today, Monday, Obama says it will not be a "victory speech"

in Iowa.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6025648&mesg_id=6025648

It will be a no-victory declaring speech....something bigger happening in FL, I hope so.

[ErinBerin84]

40. some good points.

I did see John Edwards on Wolf Blitzer defending Obama over the appeasement issue, but other than that, I haven't really seen him. I remember Richard Wolfe saying on Keith O the other night that one of the big failures of the Obama campaign is the lack of aggressive surrogates. There are so many "attack dog" surrogates on the Clinton side that are always on tv, but I'm not sure what their exact role is in the campaign, like Harold Ickes or Lanny Davis. Hell, even James Carville, even though he doesn't have an "official role" in her campaign.

[WinkyDink]

41. In other news: The "policeman" is the killer.

You know what I'm talkin' about.

[mamalone]

43. ummmm.... no I don't.....

care to elaborate?

sorry for being such a dunce about these things:blush:

[Kukesa]

45. No, the butler did it. n/t

[nomaco-10]

42. Another thoughtful and insightful post.....

if only your scenario would come to fruition. I've been trying to second guess what hillary would do for weeks and I still can't get a good read on her. Sometimes I think she will stay in til all the votes are counted and then with whatever dignity she has left, try to leave on a high note with promises of solidarity and unity. Other times I think she has this diabolical plan to go all the way to the convention, destroy the party and set herself up for 2012. I guess we're all getting ready to find out.

[myrna minx]

44. K&R. n/t

[phrigndumass]

46. I wonder if Howard Dean is tied up and locked in a closet somewhere

:7

Take him out to the ranch in the middle of nowhere and tie him up. Nobody will find him there!

[flpoljunkie]

48. I would be very surpised if Gore did not keep his powder dry--at least until after June 3rd.

There is no need for Gore to come forward until then, and I hope there will not be a need then.