Oregon polls

[my3boyz]

I was just looking at real clear and Morning Joe earlier. It seems like Oregon is tightening. :( Two polls show him with 5%. I thought he is supposed to win big there. I hope a lot of his supporters have voted.

[tekisui]

1. Obama is up 10.8% on the RCP Average.

The Average has been pretty close to the results. Individual polls are unreliable, as is joe.

[cali]

2. He's up by over 10. My bet is he wins by about 17 to 21

[my3boyz]

5. I hope you are right. That would be awesome! nt

[Dawgs]

3. Didn't the same thing happen in North Carolina?

:shrug:

[rug]

4. Clinton is up by 36% in Kentucky.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/kentucky.html

Only 6% undecided or other.

[quantass]

6. Today's newest Poll shows her down to 26% (drop of 10+ pts)

[Perky]

10. Thazt is the inevitability factor kicking in I suspect.

She is going to win handedly. But there is probalby some sense that the race is over. If that depresses her turnout it coild tighten a little bit more... but she is still going to winm.

[tekisui]

8. RCP Poll Average shows her up by 29.6%, 12.8% undecided.

I like the average better than individual polls, they have been more accurate.

[rug]

13. I agree, but by any measure it's a resounding win.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

17. weird how 6% polled plan to vote for Edwards - guess they didn't hear about him dropping out

maybe the pollsters didn't poll the sharpest knives in the drawer.

[helderheid]

20. 7% in WV voted Edwards. n/t

[ErinBerin84]

7. I only saw the Suffolk U poll, which was the other one?

I don't believe The Suffolk U poll for a second. Morning Joe always inflates the one poll that wildly stands out from the others. I don't think that Obama's victory in Oregon is going to be as big as Hillary's in Kentucky, but this poll really seem like an outlier to me. Which was the other one?

[my3boyz]

9. American Res. Group. nt

[Renew Deal]

16. Those two are amongst the least reliable pollsters

And ARG always underpolls Obama.

[mmonk]

11. Remember the polls in my state (NC) right before the primary here?

I think they said it closed to 5 points. Obama carried the night on reported votes with 14%. In the end, I believe it ended up 16%.

[saltpoint]

12. Carter, running for president in the New Hampshire primary in 1976,

was hounded by one reporter who tried challenging him with an extremely detailed policy question.

By way of response, Carter said, "I think we're going to do very well here in New Hampshire."

I predict the same for Obama in Oregon.

[MattNC]

14. calm down

Suffolk U and ARG are not terribly reliable polling outfits. He's headed to a 10+ victory. No worries.

[Khaotic]

15. Remember How "tight" Wisconsin Was Supposed to Be????

Yeah ... not so much.

I project that Obama will spank Hillary in Oregon by at LEAST as much as he did in Wisconsin.

That's my prediction.

[book_worm]

18. Remember NC the polls all showed it tightening, same thing in OR

besides if they polled yesterday a lot of Obama supporters weren't home--about 75,000 were at his rally in Portland.

[GarbagemanLB]

19. If it was tightening, Hillary would be here today and yesterday. She left early.