Predictions for tomorrow: Oregon- Obama 59%, Clinton 41% / KY- Clinton 62%, Obama 38%

[Colobo]

Your thoughts.

[jefferson_dem]

1. I like your predictions, Katz.

Sounds more than reasonable.

I sure hope Obama can keep it fairly close in PR, for those popular vote numbers.

[tekisui]

3. RCP has the popular vote totals,

with FL and MI, and estimated for the caucuses, Obama up 80,000. He should get a big boost in OR, and I imagine enough to keep the lead, even after PR. He could do very well in PR, I read he will be campaigning there.

At any rate, the popular vote argument means very little to the superdelegates, they aren't idiots.

[rocktivity]

2. I'll buy that.

And after WV, I think it's poetic justice that Obama can clinch the pledged delegate lead with only 38% of Kentucky.

Thank goodness this will be over soon--then DU can devote itself to doing some serious "hating on McCain!"

P.S. Last I heard, Obama was down by only nine in Puerto Rico.

:headbang:
rocknation

[cali]

4. katz, baby, I love your predictions

They're exactly the same as mine.

:hi:

[tekisui]

5. You are very close.

I think bit larger margin in OR: 60-40. I'd like to see Obama get a 60+ win.

[Zachstar]

6. It is Obvious after yesterday that there is large amounts of support for Obama.

So I am going to say Over 60-40 Obama in Oregon

Your KY numbers look about right.

[EnviroBat]

7. I was in Newport KY over the weekend.

I met some wonderful people going door-to-door for Obama. I saw a great many Obama signs in yards. Perhaps the Hillary win won't be as huge as predicted.

[iamthebandfanman]

25. i think certain counties actually might be hard for her.

there will be super close counties, and then counties where she completely blows him out.
i see lots of obama signs in northern kentucky... so either his supporters are just more involved and passionate, or theres a real movement up here. there were NO hillary signs anywhere in my town before this morning(hillary came to town i do believe people musta put them out so she could see 'em as she came into town).

[papau]

8. not quite 20% spread in either state but Or spread larger than Ky

[PM7nj]

20. Really?

That is interesting. You think he will do better in OR than she will in KY?

I think it will be +15 Obama in OR and +22 Clinton in KY.

[Colobo]

24. Lowering expectations for Hillary, huh?

Obama will lose big in KY and we all know it.

[NotThisTime]

9. Oregon 55-45, Kentucky 61-39

[hogwyld]

10. In the interest of setting expectations

KY Clinton 65/Obama 35. In Oregon, Obama 51/Clinton 49 so that if Obama gets anything over those percentages, the media will have to report the stunning Obama upsets.

FWIW, I live in Oregon, and have already voted for the big O.

[PBS Poll-435]

11. Good Luck w/ That!

:rofl:



Clinton will win the night.

KY & OR have roughly the same amount of delegates.

And Clinton will win KY with at least 27-30% of the vote and Obama will win Oregon by 8-14%

[rocktivity]

12. Obama needs only 35% of KY to get the 16 pledged delegates he needs

to clinch the pledged delegate lead. His Oregon pledged delegates will be icing on the cake.

But Hillary CAN stop him from clinching tomorrow: all she has to do is get 86% of the vote in BOTH contests. Good luck with THAT!

:headbang:
rocknation

[PBS Poll-435]

13. Are you disputing what I said?

[rocktivity]

14. I'm disputing that it will be Hillary's night

The news will be that Obama clinched the pledged delegate lead, and that he DIDN'T have to win to do it. Hillary's winning KY will be of no significance unless, as I said, she gets 86% of the vote both there AND in OR.

:headbang:
rocknation

[cali]

16. She'll winvthe night for pledged delegates. She'll lose

in every other way. Obama will be only about 60 delegates from 2025 come Wednesday morning. The Pelosi Club will endorse him. So will other SDs. Oh and I think Obama will win Oregon by 15 to 20 pts- closer to 20. We'll see tomorrow.

[MadBadger]

15. Oregon - Obama 60, Clinton 40 / KY - Clinton 66, Obama 34

[dbmk]

17. OR: O 58,5 - C 42,5 -- KY: O 37,5 - C 62,5

Total delegate gain for Hillary: About 5.

[Colobo]

18. Kick!

[TheDonkey]

19. why can't she win the big states

GO OR!

[Robbins]

21. My Take

Oregon-Obama 60 Hillary-40

Kentuckey-Hillary 61 Obama 39

[Texas Hill Country]

22. i would put Oregon within 12... but spot on in KY

[iamthebandfanman]

23. im part of the 38% in kentucky

and for once it feels good to be in the minority ;)