If Hillary wins the popular vote, does it change anything??

[kentuck]

Most will say that if Obama wins the majority of pledged delegates, he should be the nominee? But is it that simple?

If Obama loses KY by 35% points tomorrow and Hillary comes close in OR or even wins OR, what then? They go to PR and she wins by several hundred thousand votes and claims the lead in the popular vote. Will the remaining delegates be pushed to vote for her as the nominee over Obama? Because she has the momentum and Obama has slipped at the end?

Unthinkable? Perhaps so? Perhaps not? Is this race truly over? Or is it just beginning?

[Thrill]

1. This process is about Delegates not Popular vote

[papau]

32. true - the Starbucks crowd gives us losers anyway they can - delegates from caucuses sans Mich/FL

[RaleighNCDUer]

53. I am really sorry.

I remember when you were rational.

[lojasmo]

78. You do?

I don't.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

57. Yep, We should let people like this pick our candidate instead.

How does it feel, papau, knowing that people like her are your peeps? Your homies?

[ericgtr]

79. You must be from West Virginia

[Aloha Spirit]

82. That is quite beautiful.

Completely serious.
That man is doing his thing.
Reminds me of this song:

It's such a good feeling to know you're alive.
It's such a happy feeling: You're growing inside.
And when you wake up ready to say,
"I think I'll make a snappy new day."
It's such a good feeling, a very good feeling,
The feeling you know that we're friends.

[canucksawbones]

84. Nugent

has been packing on the pounds :rofl:

GK

[dionysus]

83. you're fucking pathetic....

:rofl:

[skipos]

2. What do the rules say?

I say we stick by them.

[democraticinsurgent]

3. Ask President Gore n/t

[breakaleg]

4. No because it ignores caucus states. They would become disenfranchised. nt

[kentuck]

7. I believe the caucus voters are counted?

Where do you get that information??

[NotThisTime]

18. Not for four caucus states

[papau]

33. LOL - so estimate the "unknown" number and she still wins the popular vote

[Gore1FL]

60. Not according to realclear politics

that has him ahead by 80,000 now.

Of course counting caucus votes the same as primary votes is also a major canard.

[totodeinhere]

95. It's not possible to accurately estimate it.

[Changenow]

5. If Obama wins the popular vote, delegates, and supers

will it change the Hillary supporters? Nope, not the slightest.

The suggestion that the rules can be changed because one candidate can win by playing them is interesting.

[Changenow]

6. If Obama wins the popular vote, delegates, and supers

will it change the Hillary supporters? Nope, not the slightest.

The suggestion that the rules can be changed because one candidate can win by playing them is interesting.

[leftofcool]

8. The DNC will go by their rules, not the will of the people

[sfaprog]

10. Well, their rules, Hillary's rules...

whatever, right?

[leftofcool]

15. Theirs

The DNC does not care about what the people want.

[sfaprog]

22. Especially when what people want is for the nomination to be handed to them like Clinton expected

[RaleighNCDUer]

55. The DNC cares about what the people of the 48 states that DID

follow the rules want.

[kwenu]

92. Sorry. To tell you but the Rules committee was stacked with Clinton loyalists when the rules were

agreed to. So let's stop talking about the DNC rules committee as if it's some unknown "them" that doesn't care about the people. "Them" are Hillary's people and it was good and fine before she started losing.

[bowens43]

9. no , it changes nothing. Obama is the nominee.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

11. It doesn't change the rules

and the rules say that the winner of the majority of the delegates receives the nomination.

Anyway, the popular vote is meaningless when some caucus states can't even be reliably counted.

[kentuck]

14. OK, the question?

Can the delegates switch their votes at the Convention? The majority of delgates now does not necessarily equal the same number at the Convention. Right?

[John Q. Citizen]

21. Sure Kentuck. You still have a shot at being nominated. Don't give up hope. You or Gravel

could certainly get it.

If you know something, you could make a fortune at the futures markets.

I think you should invest.

[kentuck]

27. Are you saying..?

That there is no need for a convention? That whomever has the most delegates after all the primaries and caucuses is the nominee? That no one can change their vote at the Convention? Once you have made your choice, it is written in stone? Is that what you believe?

[Exilednight]

49. The convention is required by law. The law mandates that every party, even those .....

little parties like the Green's and Libertarian's, have an official nominating process. Most pick convention nomination.

[RaleighNCDUer]

58. There is a HELL of a lot more to a convention than picking the

presidential candidate.

The party locks down the platform, decides on a VP candidate, basically decides where the party is going to go in the GE. The candidate is determined before the convention far more often than not.

And, BTW, Hillary is not going to come even close to winning or breaking even in OR. She's NOT getting the popular vote, which makes the entire argument moot.

[mac2]

73. They have "dumbed down" the convention to make it useless?

It's a pep rally by the DLC?

[John Q. Citizen]

69. No, i'm saying if a meteor hits earth or a super volcano erupts, there won't be a convention.

It's definitely a possibility, don't you agree?

I wouldn't bet on it though.

You can if you want to.

[Bentcorner]

59. Yes, the superdelegates don't cast their delegate vote until the convention.

[MonkeyFunk]

17. Yes, the winner of the majority of the delegates wins...

but that includes superdelegates, who are free to use any criteria they want in making their decision, and the popular vote is a pretty compelling argument.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

28. Just keep telling yourself that.

Meanwhile, Obama continues to pick up several superdelegates every day.

[sfaprog]

41. Why are Hillary suporters still pushing this argument,...

that SDs can vote for whoever they want, when clearly they are streaming over to Obama's side. I expect any day to hear about how unfair it is that SDs didn't vote for Clinton because of sexism from Obama and the DNC. :eyes:

[MonkeyFunk]

64. because they CAN vote for whomever they want

Do you disagree?

[rinsd]

90. Because Supers can vote for whomever they want and don't vote till the convention.

:shrug:

[NashVegas]

26. The Rules Are

Whomever is nominated, seconded, and 'yay'd upon by the proper number of delegates at the convention becomes the nominee.

[kentuck]

30. "at the convention" ?

being the defining words of those rules.

[NashVegas]

39. Yes

Do you remember the 1992 convention?

Jerry Brown was nominated. He was even seconded (he did it himself and got to make a speech), but of course, not having the delegates, he couldn't win the vote.


(He cried too, by the way, when he spoke about his dad Pat Brown.)

[dkf]

12. Nope. The rules are the rules...

Everytime I see stuff like this it makes me question if Hillary Clinton is a rule breaker and I think she is. This is not a good characteristic for the President of the United States.

[Alexander]

13. No. This is a race for delegates.

The idea you're getting is that the superdelegates, who are only a small fraction of the total delegates, are going to vote based on the popular vote totals.

So far the vast preponderance of superdelegates said they'll back the pledged delegate winner.

That's the disconnect that many people don't want to admit, the linchpin that gives Obama the nomination.

He may not technically be the nominee yet, just as McCain wasn't technically the nominee up until March 4th, but it's a matter of going through the motions at this point.

[sfam]

16. The Super Delegates seem to have already decided. I don't see them changing their minds...

Even if Florida and Michigan were out of the total AND Hillary wins the popular vote, this doesn't change anything. The Superdelegates have already decided. There will be a flurry after Obama captures the pledged delegate lead for good.

So yeah, unthinkable is the right word. She has lost, and she knows it. So does everyone else.

All she's hoping for at this point is that history will look back on this and say that Hillary lost due to some really bad democratic rules. If she wins the popular vote, this will help her argument for posterity. But I think they will also remember what a horrible campaign she ran for the first year or so. Until her back got against the wall, she really did run a horrid campaign. There is no excuse for just bypassing all those caucus states.

[mac2]

75. Oh but they do.

They are after all politicans.

[WeDidIt]

19. She CAN'T win the popular vote

because there is no popular vote to win.

Until somebody can report the popular vote in Iowa, Maine, Washington, and Nevada, we'll never know what the popular vote count was.

[CreekDog]

20. how does she win PR by several hundred thousand votes?

when the polls have her up by 9 points.

how many votes do you think are in Puerto Rico?

[kentuck]

31. Last I heard it was about 2 million?

10% would equal 400,000 voters.

(edited; to correct the math) :-)

[CreekDog]

36. There are only 4 million Puerto Ricans

how do you come up with 4 million voters?

edited to note: your post contains no facts. :hi:

[kentuck]

38. Sorry .. corrected the math.

It's only an estimate. But Hillary is expected to win PR big, in all the reports that I read?

[CreekDog]

40. quote some "reports" you've read for us

you didn't even put up poll numbers, I did that for you.

Puerto Rico is similar in population to Oregon, her lead in PR is similar to his lead in Oregon. Those two together --a wash.

Her margin in Kentucky is offset by Montana and South Dakota.

There you go.

[kentuck]

42. You, yourself say she is up by 9% in most of the polls.

That's a pretty big margin, by your own numbers.

[CreekDog]

45. WTF, tell us what you have "read"

i don't think you have read anything because you don't quote anything, except for me, and then only partially.

i stand by my assertion that your statements are devoid of any facts aside from what you quoted from me.

[kentuck]

51. I have read about it in the NY Times, Washington Post, Newsweek,

Huffington Post, and other blogs. You can google those articles if you wish. Most of them will say that PR favors Hillary for various reasons: They have gone from a caucus to a primary. They have a lot of Puerto Ricans in NY. There are a lot of Catholics, etc. Some blogs may show Hillary ahead by 2 to 1 with about 25% undecided.
http://search.isp.netscape.com/nsisp/boomframe.jsp?query=Democrats+in+Puerto+Rico&page=1&offset=0&result_url=redir%3Fsrc%3Dwebsearch%26requestId%3D708186bb3d57e93e%26clickedItemRank%3D5%26userQuery%3DDemocrats%2Bin%2BPuerto%2BRico%26clickedItemURN%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fblog.washingtonpost.com%252Fthe-trail%252F2008%252F03%252F07%252Fpuerto_rico_democrats_seek_to.html%26invocationType%3D-%26fromPage%3DNSISPTop%26amp%3BampTest%3D1&remove_url=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.washingtonpost.com%2Fthe-trail%2F2008%2F03%2F07%2Fpuerto_rico_democrats_seek_to.html

[NJmaverick]

23. Welll you could also ponder what would happen if Obama

is hit by lightening or a meteor. I think that the odds of that happening are about the same as the scenerios, you laid out, happening.

[cali]

24. No. First of all Hillary won't come close to winning in OR and there is

nothing to suggest that your proposal that she might come close is true. Why engage in such silliness. She'll no more win OR than he will KY. Furthermore, it's done. Do you understand that by Wednesday morning Obama will be no more than 55-55 delegates away from the nomination.

It's over. And no, anyone with a calendar is aware that the race isn't just beginning. That's laughable.

[SoonerPride]

25. Popular vote? Disenfranshise caucus states? No thanks.

This is a delegate battle and it was over two months ago.

Thanks for playing.

[mac2]

34. The Super Delegates won't go against the popular vote.

The DNC has decided to allow Dean to "hand pick" the FL and MI delegates to be seated at the convention.

What crap is that? Dean gets to chose the candidate who gets their vote?

I just heard CO had decided to send two more delegates to the convention.

Can they screw up this primary more than it already is? We don't need the Republicans or the Supreme Court to decide who wins this election. The enemy is us.

[cali]

44. Put up or, well, you know.

Just because your candidate lost and you have a bad case of sour grapitis, doesn't mean that the primaries have been screwed up. It certainly doesn't mean we'll lose in Nov. And it does NOT give you the right to smear. Post a link to something reputable confirming your outlandish claims, or cease making them.

[RaleighNCDUer]

61. If Florida seats 1/2 delegates, that doesn't mean that either

Dean or the state party will pick and choose which delegates to send. ALL the delegates will go, and EACH delegate's vote will count as 1/2.

That is the standard minimal penalty for BREAKING THE FUCKING RULES.

[slinkerwink]

29. No. It's about the delegates. Hillary said so herself.

[graycem]

35. Well, since the SD's have never

overturned the delegate count, I would say no, nothing changes.

I know that many of you want that to happen, but they simply will not do it. They will take a chance on Obama rather than angering the Obama supporters, and guaranteeing a loss in the GE. The reason it is different is because this has always been a delegate race and he is perceived as the winner of that metric. You can't take away the prize from the winner and give it to the second place candidate and expect people to suck it up, especially the new voters he's been pulling into this process, and the cynics he's managed to get excited about politics again. They are more aware of that than anyone because they are elected officials too for the most part. They get how this works.

Finally, another reason, why would they believe Hillary is the better candidate when her campaign has failed to avoid so many pitfalls during this race? Why would they believe she'd do any better in the fall against McCain??

[kentuck]

46. I tend to agree with you..

But I do want to give Hillary and all her supporters the benefit of the doubt. They can legitimately argue, in my opinion, that the votes are counted at the Convention and that delegates can change their minds, in fact some already have, and that it is not officially over until the delegates are counted "at the convention".

But, for the reasons you stated, I do not think they could take the election away from the candidate that wins the most delegates in the primaries. That would be almost an automatic loser for the Party, in my opinion. By the way, as most folks here know, I am an Obama supporter. :-)

[graycem]

47. Then I don't include you in the "you"

but I do agree with you that Hillary has every right to go to the convention. She does have a lot of support. I just think barring a serious Obama implosion, it won't do any good except keep the rancor and hurt feelings stirred up, so why take the risk? We need to win and in order to do that, we need Hillary to persuade her supporters.

If there is a floor fight, we lose, period. Obama will be seen as the victim of "dirty tactics" whether it's dirty or not. She will he seen as a sore loser, and it will be political suicide for her, so I hope she doesn't. I think it will all be settled on May 31st or shortly after, and I think Obama will ultimately choose her as VP, and that will give her a face saving option, whether she accepts or not.

[LeFleur1]

66. Political Suicide

Kinda like Ted Kennedy committed political suicide against Jimmy Carter at the convention?

[graycem]

76. ...and he never ran for President again,

so, yeah. Let's face it, Hillary wants the presidency, not to be relegated to the Senate for the rest of her life. If she does this, there will be no 2012 run for her, or if it is, it won't be pretty since she will be seen as the spoiler. Maybe not to you, but to the other half of the Democratic party, forgiveness would be years away if they believe she caused Obama's loss.

Plus, I would argue that Ted's family name and his connections to his home state provided him some insulation from the fallout that might've occurred otherwise. Hillary doesn't have the same luxury.

[Stop Cornyn]

37. Q: If Hillary wins the popular vote, does it change anything? A: Yes. It changes the time-space

continuum because Hillary would need to go back in time and win a few of the caucus states which she conveniently leaves out of her "popular vote" calculations.

[backscatter712]

43. She's not winning the popular vote.

Hillary has to fudge the numbers to make it look like she's winning the popular vote - including the bogus elections in Florida and Soviet Michigan, and omitting several caucus states.

By any honest count, Obama's winning the popular vote.

[mac2]

50. Fudge the popular vote to look like she is winning?

You mean they count 1, 2,3, 10? The vote is what it is isn't it?

[RaleighNCDUer]

65. You mean they count 1, 2,3, 10?

That is EXACTLY it. By discounting the caucus states where the popular vote is only estimated (which broke for Obama) and including FL and MI (where he didn't campaign, nor - in Michigan - was even on the ballot) that is precisely the way they are counting.

[mac2]

70. Caucus states are mostly conservative right?

Caucus states and votes estimated? How can that be legal?

[RaleighNCDUer]

85. Do you not understand how a caucus works?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus

Of course it is legal. And what does 'conservative states' have to do with it?

Are you really looking for information?

[mac2]

86. How about a real vote?

[RaleighNCDUer]

87. Thank you - that answered my question.

The prototypical low-information voter. The willfully ignorant.

I don't know why I even bother.

[DearAbby]

96. Repeat PRN

There is no popular vote.

Caucus states don't have a popular vote.


There is no popular vote.

Caucus states don't have a popular vote.


There is no popular vote.

Caucus states don't have a popular vote.


There is no popular vote.

Caucus states don't have a popular vote.


There is no popular vote.

Caucus states don't have a popular vote.


There is no popular vote.

Caucus states don't have a popular vote.

[lumberjack_jeff]

48. Depends on how much.

In the unlikely event that Clinton ends the primary with 400,000+ more popular votes than Obama,
a) the superdelegates need to do some soul searching.
b) it becomes impossible to ignore that as a party we need to revisit our process which gives a result so out of synch with popular sentiment.

My feeling is this, I prefer Hillary's policy, her willingness to advocate for the poor and for children, her specificity and her experience. However, my feeling is that Hillary supporters have a greater likelihood of voting for the D nominee even if it's not their candidate than do Obama's. Although Hillary's support is largely traditional democrats, Obama's are frequently independents and political agnostics, who are not voting for the party, but for the person.

If Obama is the nominee, 5% of Clinton's supporters will vote for McCain and 15% will stay home. If Clinton is the nominee, 10% of Obama's supporters will vote for McCain and 15% will stay home.

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

52. Several problems with your post..

1) She is not going to win OR, and 'keeping it close' would mean a less than 10 point victory for Obama.

2) Without counting MI she is not going to come close

3) Are they going to extrapolate the caucus states in the popular vote total?

--

Its all over but the crying..

[mac2]

72. You would leave out the voters of Michigan?

Is this 2000 where we demanded every vote counts but the Supremes stole everyone's vote in the end? Are the party leaders doing it this time?

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

77. I owuld leave out any state which had the following:

1) only one of the big name candidates
2) two fifths of the voters voted uncommitted..
3) Hillary herself said ahead of time is 'not going to count for anything'

I think MI falls into that category.. Its more reasonable to leave out MI than not count the caucaus states..

[Texas Hill Country]

54. yes,

[hokies4ever]

56. Hillary needs virtually all of the remaining supers

Even if she did win the popular vote (which will not count some of those caucus states), not ALL of the supers will be convinced by her argument. Some will, but she just needs way too many to pull out a victory.

[Bentcorner]

63. Remaining superdelegates? You realize that all of the superdelegates are remaining?

The superdelegates don't cast their votes as superdelegates until at the convention.
Not now.
Not next week.
Not next month.

[hokies4ever]

68. Well then by your logic, the score is tied 0-0

since none of the pledged delegates have voted yet either. Plus, we've already seen one of Hillary's pledged delegates switch to Obama. So technically the race is a dead-heat, 0 delegates apiece.

See how useless that is? While endorsements from superdelegates may not be binding, most political analysts count them for our sake in determining who is winning.

[haymakeragain]

62. If my aunt had testicles, he'd be my uncle.

Without MI she ain't even close, and MI ain't gonna count as is cause Obama wasn't on the ballot. Why do hillarians want to cheat?

[jgraz]

67. It's about as meaningful as winning the unicorn vote.

Which, by the way, is the next metric I expect Terry McAuliffe to trot out.

[PseudoIntellect]

71. People think popular vote matter, so yeah, it matters.

Not that popular vote is actually meaningful in the primaries.

[Vinca]

74. She could only win the popular vote if you don't bother giving Obama

any for Michigan and Florida. Then, of course, there are the caucus states that Obama won (but don't count to Hillary). In any case, the game is currently played for delegates. If you want to change it for the next time, that's fine with me, but you can't change the rules after the game is played.

[ericgtr]

80. Sorry but there isn't even a remote chance that Hillary will win Oregon

Obama owns it.

[Orsino]

81. The spinning of it will be used to try to change perceptions...

...which I suppose could be used to get around the rules, if the party is in big-time disarray.

Mainly, her chance to win the popular vote is all that's left, so that will be the talking point for the rest of the campaign.

[SoonerPride]

89. The popular vote doesn't count caucuses. There is no there there.

There is no popular vote.

Only delegates.

Period.

[rinsd]

93. 4 caucuses did not calculate pop vote. The rest did.

[rinsd]

88. Its only an argument for persuasion of Supers not party rules or the like.

Unless she can persuade the Supers with the argument(and it does not appear to be winning many converts), it is of little consequence.

[kwenu]

91. It doesn't change anything and Hillary doesn't have the popular vote.

No one is taking her silly campaign tricks seriously. This is a delegate race. Either she's the pledged delegate leader or she isn't and we aren't following her multiple "what if" scenarios to make it seem like she is something that she isn't.

[DearAbby]

94. WHAT POPULAR VOTE???

Can you state what the vote count was for CAUCUS STATES? or doesnt Hillary Count them?

THE POPULAR VOTE ARGUMENT IS BOGUS...try something new...like sexism, then tomorrow dig up the WRIGHT ISSUE for old times sake...:eyes:

[AZBlue]

97. What popular vote? There's NO popular vote when there are states that caucus.

If you don't like the process, work to change 2016. But you can't change the process 3/4 of the way through the primary.

[rinsd]

98. That is not true. 4 caucus states don't publish pop vote totals.

Not every caucus works the same.

[AZBlue]

99. So you want to leave those 4 out?

Plus the ones that publish are only estimates.

Again: there is NO popular vote.