Why do current GE polls between Obama/McCain don't matter?

[Dawgs]

Because the results will change dramatically...

For instance,

Six months ago, in November of 2007, Hillary led by 15 points over Obama in NH. She won by 2.6. That's a difference of 12.6.

Similarly,

NV - Clinton +25 (November 2007), Clinton 5.5 (Election Day), Obama +19.5 (Difference)
CA - Clinton +25 (November 2007), Clinton 9.6 (Election Day), Obama +15.4 (Difference)
SC - Clinton +2 (November 2007), Obama 28.9 (Election Day), Obama +30.9 (Difference)
PA - Clinton +20 (November 2007), Clinton 9.2 (Election Day), Obama +10.8 (Difference)
WI - Clinton +13 (November 2007), Obama 17.4 (Election Day), Obama +30.4 (Difference)
OH - Clinton +25 (November 2007), Clinton 10.1 (Election Day), Obama +14.9 (Difference)

Currently, six months before the election, Obama is trailing McCain by one point in Ohio, Florida, and Michigan.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May19.html

I realize the dynamics are different, but being down one point is not a bad place to be considering the states that are in play.

[CoffeeCat]

1. These GE polls do not matter right now...

...because after we have a Dem nominee--tectonic shifts will happen.

People will be tuned in to the GE. They'll be listening to McCain and Obama debate, fight
and discuss the issues--and the focus will shift.

Right now, each candidate benefits from the hard-core supporters in each of their camps. Just
like Hillary had such high numbers in all national polls, a while ago. People give their most
obvious answers. Republicans are saying they'll vote R. Dems are saying they'll vote D.
Indies are most likely split.

Running mates will be selected. New arguments and ideas will be brought forth.

The GE hasn't even begun. Obama and McCain will debate. So much will happen. These two
haven't really gone head to head yet--and when they do many, many people will change their
minds and "realignment" will happen.

We don't know exactly how those numbers will go--but they will shift--because we are not in
GE mode yet.

[Dawgs]

2. Exactly.

But, I think you'll see a dramatic shift of support to Obama after Hillary drops out - maybe as many as 7-10 points.

[Dawgs]

3. Duplicate.