Mark my words - She's going to drag it out to the convention.

[SlipperySlope]

I finally get it. I finally see things for what they are. She isn't going to quit, she isn't going to step aside, she isn't going to give up her dream until it is pried out of her hands. Her enablers and supporters will let her keep going and going, and she's going to take this all the way to Denver in the end of August.

She believes all her arguments about electability. She believes that the supers can be connived into voting for her. Hell, she's even floated the balloon that "pledged delegates" aren't really pledged and they are fair game as well.

The only possible thing that can stop this trainwreck would be for the party to turn its back on her. But that isn't going to happen. Too many people respect him and her too much. Too many people love him and her too much. Too many people will say "well, she deserves her chance to take it as far as she wants".

I don't think she sees the damage that she is doing to her brand. For all their political history they've been able to undo any problem, deflect any criticism, turn around any spin. They have always been able to take it to the edge and then turn it around, so she won't even recognize what going over the edge feels like.

The math isn't going to change
And that's the problem. The math isn't going to change. If she can look at the situation as it stands and seriously think she has a chance, then everything that is left to come will just encourage her. Oregon won't count. Kentucky, Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota, all of them will count, and be enough justification to keep going.

Michigan and Florida will be two itches that she just won't stop scratching. "If only", "if only", she will think. But as much as the party loves and respects her, she won't get what she wants. At best a token victory, the states get seated but not with the delegates "as is". Not enough votes, and then she'll have run out of primaries. All thats left is to work the back rooms and alleys and try to put together a deal.

Mark my words. June 3rd is going to come and go and it just won't matter. It's going to be a long, long, long summer.

[anonymous171]

1. A lot of her early pledged delegates don't want to support her anymore, FYI

[papau]

7. If Obama can steal her "pledged" delegates as he has, seems Convention is way to go

[anonymous171]

9. It wouldn't be stealing. They support Obama now, but originally supported Hillary

[SlipperySlope]

17. If they can change their minds once...

..then they can change them back.

All this demonstrates to her is that pledged delegates are fair game.

[anonymous171]

20. I don't think Obama should actively seek to change their minds.

And I'm not so comfortable with pledged delegates switching.

[berni_mccoy]

63. Fool them once, shame on Hillary, fool them twice... They can't get fooled again

[mac2]

76. They are after all politicans.

[Alexander]

52. Didn't you know? It's only stealing when Obama does it.

:sarcasm:

[MattBaggins]

29. Stealing?

It was Clinton supporters who harped on and on that pledged delegates were free to switch. I think it sucks royally but don't act all innocent now.

Wait this is just like caucuses, pop vote and MI/FL isn't it? It was all fine until Hillary started to lose.

[Tatiana]

11. She's lost substantial support in her California delegation.

I suspect that there are more than a few waffling NY pledged delegates as well.

[jgraz]

41. Most of her voters don't want her either.

Look at the changing national polls. Many of those Obama supporters voted for Hillary during their caucuses and/or primaries.

[mac2]

78. What? Most her voters didn't want her but wanted Obama?

What kind of Orwellian concept is that? Could it be the influence or lies of the media?

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

45. Tough. "Her" pledged delegates aren't hers

they belong to the people who voted or caucused. Pledged delegates should not have a choice, they are not super delegates. If pledged delegates can switch, then the people's votes really are meaningless.

[Lerkfish]

2. yes, but at this point, it won't help her

she'll be irrelevant, so not worth worrying about.

[cali]

3. wake up. you're way off.

she isn't going beyond June 6th. She's deeply in debt. Her top donors are deserting her. Her SDs will defect in droves if she tries what you suggest. The dem bigwigs care far more about winning than hillary or bill. Damn right they'll spurn her. Going to the convention isn't remotely feasible.

[bigtree]

10. right. nothing indicates she has the clout to force anything from anyone

. . . she never did (and never assumed she did, beyond the normal political posturing and courting of delegates).

The voters and the results from the primaries will determine this election. The SDs are just pols. They aren't likely to produce any surprises which aren't evident in a traditional reading of the results of the primary (delegate counts)

[FSogol]

15. I agree. It ends this week. Wednesday or Thursday. n/t

[SlipperySlope]

22. Nothing can possibly happen this week to change anything.

Why would end end this week?

Obama is going to take Oregon by 10%-15%, she is going to take Kentucky by 25%-35%. The writing on the wall won't be any clearer on Thursday than it is today. Nothing changes.

If she doesn't see a reason to quit now, she won't see one after Oregon and Kentucky. She'll just have one more pointless argument to make about how her blow-out in Kentucky proves she should be the nominee.

[FSogol]

28. Here is a delegate counter.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

Plug whatever rosy scenario you like into it and see if Hillary has any chance at all. Also, remember that who gets the majority of pledged delegates (1627) will pick up 8-10 superdelegates (The Pelosi Group which includes Jimmy Carter and others). Obama will pass that number tomorrow.

[ieoeja]

33. I predict Michigan's and Florida's punishments will be commutted to the original expectation.

They did what they did expecting their votes at the convention to count one-half. I suspect that punishment will be re-instated in which case Obama needs 58 instead of just 16 to win an overall majority.

Of course, with 103 up for grabs tomorrow, he might pass that number as well.

[bigtree]

4. the fricking superdelegates are more responsible than she is for 'dragging' anything out

and, if they stay divided, and more stay uncommitted, it will drag on -- until they decide. Voters are more responsible too. If they gave Obama enough votes to win the nomination, the race would be over. Don't blame Hillary Clinton for the process. NOTHING in our rules says a candidate is obligated or expected to bow out before one actually reaches the required number to nominate. If the SDs don't decide and fill the deficit in delegates, this will drag on -- until they decide.

[cali]

12. you'd be upset- and with some justification- if the SDs had

already put Obama over the top. They're waiting for the primary season to wind down and giving deference to Clinton and her supporters. The SDs have pretty clearly already decided. Axelrod has made it quite clear that they have Sds on tap. After tomorrow, Obama will only need about 50-60 to get to 2025. He only needs 113 now.

[bigtree]

49. hey, I'm not the one calling for an end to the process before it runs its course. I'm saying though

that their (understandable) intransigence would delay the process, not Clinton. She doesn't have that power.

[Major Hogwash]

51. Hillary now has an "electoral map" that she is using, drawn up by Karl Rove that shows she could win

in the fall if she were the nominee. The map is disingenuous, it's based on the presumption that the primary elections are just like the general elections, that people will vote in the fall like they did in the spring.

Which is total bullshit since we know that so many Republicans "crossed over" during the Democratic primaries in Ohio, Texas, and in Pennsylvania to vote for her. A lot of them were people who told exit pollsters that they didn't intend to vote for Hillary in the fall.

Obama would have won all 3 states handily if the Republicans had skewed those primaries for Hillary.

So, Hillary's argument that she won all the big states is disingenuous, too.

There is no correlation between the primary elections and the general election.

[rurallib]

She can run but if the media refuses to cover her

it will kill whatever she is trying to accomplish. Ron Paul is still running also.
The media pretty much decides who wins and who loses by the amount and type of coverage candidates get. Not always true, but let's face it, the media has an enormous voice in the electoral process.
They did try to kill Obama, tried to promote Hillary, still promoting McCain and killed Edwards. They had a major hand in killing Dean and I believe a major hand in giving us dimson.

[Jawja]

61. "I believe a major hand in giving us dimson."

They DID give us dimson.

[TexasObserver]

5. Once June 3rd passes, her delegates will start to abandon her.

They will declare her candidacy dead long before the convention.

[marions ghost]

47. yes, for sure

n/t

[GarbagemanLB]

6. No, she won't.

[dbmk]

8. I also think

..that she has painted herself up into a corner with the "all voters must be heard" rethoric. She can't really back out now and still maintain some sort of integrity on that issue.

[PassingFair]

"Integrity"?

That went out the door with her unapologetic,
asinine IWR vote.

[mac2]

13. Which ever candidate gets the most votes or delegates

according to party "rules" (of the past not the present who claim new rules for liberal states) can't declare themselves a winner. The delegates do that at the convention.

It's plain arrogance to declare victory before all the delegates are counted and recorded. Delegates can change their vote at the last minute.

Ya..I'm talking to you Obama.

[cali]

19. Sorry, there's almost always a presumptive nominee

and when Obama reaches the requisite number of delegates in a week or so, he'll be that person. He won't declare victory before then, but he has every right to do so when it happens. Just as McCain did.

[Benhurst]

23. I think Obama said today that he is NOT going to claim

victory before the convention.

I hope this is the case. He will remain the presumptive nominee. Otherwise he will make himself into the nominee presumptuous.

No candidate will reach the magic number of elected delegates to automatically win the nomination without the help of the super delegates.

Nevertheless, Obama looks as though he is going to prevail in the end. Overreaching by claiming a prize he has not won would weaken his position, not strengthen it.

Let the process, extremely flawed as it may be, run its course.

It's in the hands of our unelected super delegates now, who can change their votes up until the time they are cast.

Don't like the system? Get to work on changing it for 2012, win or lose, as soon as the general election is over.

[PoliticalOne65]

27. right on

They will have a floor count at the convention anyway. Once the floor count shows Obama as the winner then there is nothing she can do. 'Well, maybe run as an independent'. She will make a speech at the convention endorsing Obama. Much the way Reagan did in 1976, endorsing Ford. Then she hopes in four years she can run again.

[MattBaggins]

31. After June 6th Hillary gets 4 days to make her case to the SDs

I will accept her as VP if she is given the nod and takes it. If she drags this to the convention and gets ugly; I pledge as a New Yorker to see to it that she can not win re-election to her Senate seat in 2012. She will be forced to decide between defending her Senate seat and another failed run for President.

[mac2]

72. Don't forget the delegates and their influence?

Or is this a fight of the oligarchy?

[haymakeragain]

14. Of that I have no doubt. And she will be aided and abetted by Rush

and the rest of the Repubenic nation. The longer they can keep this going the less time McSameAsshole will be able to avoid serious confrontation.

This is a sad state of affairs for sure.

[mac2]

73. Haymaker from Obama headquarters?

Hang onto your suckers. The convention decides on a primary winner.

[julialnyc]

16. I disagree. I think she will wait for the last state to vote and then concede

She has repeatedly said that she wants every voice to be heard and I think she is just going to wait for this to play itself out and then give a concession speech that states how amazing it was that Democrats of all of the states have participated in this process and now will come together. She doesn't want to be known as the destroyer of the democratic party and at this point why not wait for everyone to vote?

[marlakay]

18. I know how you feel but I hope you are wrong! nt

[RainDog]

21. The Clintons have made lots of enemies among powerful democrats

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/05/18/as_clinton_chances_wane_old_slights_come_due/?page=full

For Clinton, holding one of the most famous names in Democratic politics has had both advantages and disadvantages as she has sought to persuade superdelegates to make her the nominee. Much of the Democratic establishment jumped to Clinton's side early, rewarding her and her husband for years of friendship and shared political struggles, giving the New York senator a large lead in superdelegates at the beginning of the campaign.

But the reality of the Clintons' relationship with fellow Democrats was always more complicated. As even some Clinton supporters concede, there are many superdelegates who have had issues with the Clintons. And now, when the New York senator most needs the loyalties of her Democratic colleagues, the checkered history of relations between the Clintons and Democratic officials is making the task tougher, say lawmakers and political analysts.

"The Clintons have a lot of enemies, even in the same Democratic establishment that embraced them," said Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. "Now that it looks like she's done . . . there's not a lot of reason to stick their necks out for her."


The sooner this is over now, the better off for the party. Everyone knows this but the Clinton camp, apparently. They will not take this to the convention. It will be over by June.

[mac2]

25. With all those egoes in one room why wouldn't there be

enemies?

[Major Hogwash]

54. Hillary's ego is the biggest of them all, she doesn't just want to be the President.

She wants to also be the Queen of the World.
She wants to be referred to as the Goddess of Peace.

[mac2]

65. Don't they all?

[Major Hogwash]

67. No.

Obama just wants to be President.

Hillary wants adoration like she's some queen from Egypt.

[mac2]

69. Is that not a big ego since he is not qualified or even

promising to support the Constitution? He is a globalist wanting amnesty and open borders...WTO rule. Hillary is right. He is an elitist but so is she belonging to behind closed door organizations.

We here in Illinois we have seen that big ego pushed along to be "saviour" type candidate by the Chicago Tribune (same paper as Bob Novak). RW radio (also owned by the Chicago Tribune) can't say enough about him. B.C. Obama, the first word out of their mouth on the news was Bush. Now it's Obama and then Bush.

I voted for him the first time since he was a better choice than Senator Fitzgerald who left office. Fool me once but never twice. He has failed to accomplish anything he promised like "change". That change carrot can only work if there is a bit of "change" seen (because we lack enough power). His speech writer is good but his actions not.

You as an American have a right to vote as you please. Don't force it on the rest of us.

[Major Hogwash]

70. You're a troll - good-bye, asshole!

Don't forget to grab your hat on the way out the door, motherfucker!

[mac2]

71. delete

[mac2]

74. Clean up your language.

I'm not a troll and just as much a Dem as you. Your insults and bad language make you an angry person. Just because someone doesn't agree with your political choice makes you think they aren't a Dem? Get real. Half the country disagrees with you...and they are Dems.

[msallied]

24. Hey, chin up. She lacks the cash to pull this out any further

and she is alienating more and more people by the day. She won't have an iota of sane backing left come August if she is still in this. It'll be over in a couple weeks. Don't fret. :)

[PM7nj]

26. The party will not let her.

I am sure of it.

[mac2]

77. Do you have an inside track on that?

Isn't that voter fraud? You mean Dean won't let her?

[ashrob123]

30. Am I the only one that agrees with this?

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if she comes up with reasons to keep running. She's like the energizer bunny. She's acting as if she has money to burn (which she may). If she can convince herself and others that Obama has clay feet and that within the next 3 months his big scandal is going to come she's staying in. She'll go through whatever processes available (and I have heard that even after the committee meeting on the 31st there are appeals open to her during the convention).

It would actually surprise me if she did drop out on the 3rd.

[RainDog]

32. I think the superdelegates will go for Obama and let her know it's over

if she refuses to accept she is not the party nominee.

And if this happens, she will find that she has made far more enemies in the Democratic Party than she had before. This will mean that the power she previously held will be diminished, along with people like Ferraro.

I, for one, will not be happier because they are not women I want as my representatives in public life.

[yodermon]

34. Moot point. After the last primarty, the media will ignore her because

the only audience she has left are the superdelegates. McCain/Obama will get all the attention (see, it's happening already).

IOW, if a campaign crashes in a forest and there are no voters left to campaign to, does it make a sound?

[apocalypsehow]

35. I think you're right, and what's more I believe that after the Clinton's make the convention as ugly

as possible for Obama but in the end he is finally nominated, the day after it ends she'll be in court with a boatload of lawyers in an attempt to sue her way to the nomination. It won't be because she thinks she'll be successful, but merely as a tool to help McCain win the general election so she can run again in 2012.

The only thing I disagree about in your OP is when you said: "I don't think she sees the damage that she is doing to her brand."

I think she sees, alright, but just doesn't care. The Clinton's are Clinton's first, Democrats second: they don't give a damn about the Democratic Party or anything else if it doesn't serve their own narcissistic, personal needs. They are truly the two most self-centered people in American politics today.

[SlipperySlope]

38. "Brand Clinton" not "Brand Democrat".

Clearly they don't give a flying crap about the "D" brand.

What I'm saying is they don't see how bad they are damaging the "C" brand.

[gorekerrydreamticket]

36. I think so too...

After the primaries are over, I can envision the Clinton campaign starting or threatening to start litigation over the Michigan and Florida situations...

[nomaco-10]

37. I think it's very possible that this is her plan.......

I didn't want to believe it, but as time has gone on and when she does give a couple of sound bites about unity that sound insincere at best, she either verbally flubs it, or outright says she's taking it to the convention. I believe she's in it til denver. So far, she has done nothing to make me believe any different.

We're getting ready to see exactly what one, hillary rodham clinton is made of.


edited for a spelling error not for content.

[wvbygod]

39. SDs can change their minds back to Hillary if they wish

You can still cheer for the media darling and let Hillary do what she must.

Why to some people hate freedom of choice?

[TBF]

42. Referring to Obama as the "media darling" made me LOL. This woman

that you worship was always the media favorite and the dem party favorite. She came into this race as the wife of a former president with front-runner status. It is only due to Obama's intelligence and organizational skills that he was able to challenge her highness and win Iowa.

You can try to re-write history but we've all seen this play out. She can sue whomever she wants but the writing is on the wall. It's over for all but the very delusional.

[TBF]

43. Delete - dupe

[IsItJustMe]

64. Yeah, I think you are full of it also. Media darling my ass. Guess you forgot about Wright.

[2rth2pwr]

40. You just now realized this?

[Ian_rd]

44. Repeat after me: Legal Action

Most of us aren't realizing how far this could go. Imagine a dramatic court battle: Hillary Clinton vs. The Democratic Party. The Media would LOVE it. And Hillary wouldn't have to surrender the spotlight. You see, it doesn't matter that she's in debt, it doesn't even matter that she can't win no matter how you count it. It's pure ego now. And make no mistake: there are millions of her supporters who would stick with her no matter where she wants to go.

It's not about winning anymore. She has watched her dream go up in smoke. And now she is willing to burn everything she sees to the ground in order to placate her ego.

[SlipperySlope]

46. Sue the party under the "equal protection" clause for the benefit of Michigan and Florida

I would give this at least a 25% chance of happening.

[kenny blankenship]

56. Wow. Just like George W. Bush did

Well technically just like his daddy's friends. I'm sure Georgie wouldn't know a legal brief from a bus schedule.

[mac2]

68. They should do a re-vote in MI and FL

for the primary since the manipulation to prevent the vote was so apparent by party leaders.

[Mme. Defarge]

48. I can't stand the suspense!

:popcorn:

[Major Hogwash]

50. Wolfson has been saying this for 2 weeks. Her lawyers already have the paperwork drawn up.

They're going to court to argue that the delegations from Michigan and Florida were denied their equal rights to participate in the process, according to the "equal protection" clause.

[casus belli]

53. Only problem with that theory is the money.

She doesn't have any, and if she takes it to the convention, she won't be allowed by law to continue raising funds to pay off her debts. She'll own them.

[kenny blankenship]

57. Won't Harvey Weinstein and this other fellow Saban set up a legal fund for her representation?

[davidpdx]

55. I heard the same talking point today somewhere else

that Hillary Clinton has the right to stay in until the convention (not here, but somewhere else). I quickly pointed out that I've never advocated pushing her out. She needs to make the decision for her own good and the good of the party. The other point is that after June 3rd there really is NOTHING to campaign for (except super delegates). The issue with Michigan and Florida is moot. They both will be seated in some way, but won't change the outcome. If you look at it that way, she has a couple more weeks to make the decision on her own time line. Sooner or later (although I don't think it will be May 20th as I previously had said) Obama will get the required delegates and then the contest IS over. My guess is it will be before the end of this month.

[Life Long Dem]

58. I think she was being a smart ass to Obama about KY.

Obama is allowing her to leave on high note. And she was acting like it was some kind of big deal at her rally that Obama left her KY all for herself to campaign. A bit strange.

[mac2]

75. How wonderful of him.

[Apollo11]

59. I expect this will all be over by June 15th at the very latest

After the DNC Rules Committee has dealt with the issues in relation to Florida and Michigan, and after all the contests are over, Howard Dean will pressure the remaining undeclared superdelegates to decide and declare before June 15th.

When it becomes clear that Obama is certain be the nominee, then Dean (supported by folks like Carter, Gore and Biden) will be in a position to tell the Clintons that the party expects them to support the nominee.

[nomaco-10]

60. I hope your right....

If this thing goes on past june 3rd or one minute longer than your predicted date of june 15th, I think the party is headed for real disaster.

[mac2]

66. Dean will force the delegates to make a decision before

the convention? He picked some and then he pressures them? Get out of the race Dean. The voters and their delegates speak not you. Let them decide at the convention per the rules.

Stop trying to steal and influence elections. Not one election since 2000 has been allowed to flow the usual way. Now they tinker with the primary. The coup to steal our democracy began in 2000 (officially).

I want Dean fired!

[NashVegas]

62. So?

[Abacus]

79. I think she'll "suspend" her campaign mid June

after it becomes clear that the supers won't switch and her negatives continue to climb, endangering her career.