Rove's Latest Electoral Maps Have Clinton Stronger Than Obama Against McCain

[ElsewheresDaughter]

May 19, 2008 1:48 PM

Electoral maps put together by the consulting firm helmed by Karl Rove, and obtained by ABC News, show Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, to be a stronger general election candidate in a hypothetical general election match-up against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., than Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois.

Click HERE to see the maps and charts from Karl Rove & Co., obtained by ABC News.

States are allocated in Rove's exercise based on an average of public polls, which many pollsters would tell you is a rather unscientific way to look at the data.

Still, for political junkies the information is interesting.

In the first map from Karl Rove & Co., McCain leads Obama in a hypothetical match-up, winning states totaling 238 electoral votes to Obama's 221 electoral votes.

There are 538 total electoral votes. At least 270 are needed to win the presidency.

The trend is positive for Obama -- he is up 14 electoral votes from May 11, and McCain is down 13 electoral votes.

The map shows McCain winning Florida, New Hampshire, West Virginia and Wisconsin. States with 79 electoral votes -- Connecticut, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia -- are toss-ups, within a margin of error of +/- 3 points.

In the hypothetical Clinton-McCain match-up, Clinton leads with 259 electoral votes to McCain's 206 electoral votes.

States totaling 73 electoral votes -- Connecticut, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, and New Mexico -- too close to call.

Clinton, too, is trending upwards, with a gain of 11 electoral votes since May 11.

The big differences between Clinton and Obama, beyond the her larger number:

Clinton would make competitive some states that Obama would lose -- such as Missouri and New Hampshire -- and she would win others outright, such as Arkansas, Florida, Ohio and West Virginia.

On the other hand, McCain would handily win beat Clinton in some states that Obama made competitive, such as Colorado, North Dakota, and Virginia. Some states that Obama would win, such as Minnesota and Nebraska -- Clinton would lose to McCain.

Occasionally this election cycle the electoral maps of Karl Rove & Co. have reared their heads. In March, McCain adviser Mark McKinnon was spotted holding some of these maps, as reported by Texas Monthly.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/05/roves-latest-el.html

[Qutzupalotl]

1. Go figure!

[Emit]

21. lol!

my first thought, too.

[PaulaFarrell]

2. Right, this would be why the freeps are rooting for Hillary n/t

[JoFerret]

13. Not because they are racist then?

(Actually - imagine their discomfort. An arch enemy who is a woman with policies almost identical to a black man who has wide appeal. Poor things. )

[PaulaFarrell]

98. Probably both

I looked at a thread (smacks wrists) about Obama, and there was one comment, about ' well, we msut get this out so the Hillary supporters don't get discouraged (a totally bizarre thread about how the phots of the huge Obama rally were supposedly all "cropped" to make the crowds look igger than they were)" and then a few just hating on Obama. SO I do think both, but I think that part of it is that they are scared to death of the support he gets, regardless of his colour. They are used to democratic candidates having lacklustre support, and they are shitting themselves. They hate all democrats anyway so it's hard to disentangle the motive...

[TheDonkey]

3. hypotheticals are fun but we'll never know. Obama vs Mcain this November 2008

[anonymous171]

4. lol Rove, the brilliant strategist who helped the Republicans maintain all their seats in 2006

:eyes:

[americanstranger]

5. How embarrassing.

Down to using Rove as a source. That is sad.

- as

[babylonsister]

22. No kidding! nt

[Kittycat]

94. The OP should be ashamed

bringing that trash here.

[Bleacher Creature]

6. Ask Dennis Hastert about the accuracy of Rove's maps.

Why even post this drivel?

[bunnies]

7. Never though I'd see threads championing KKKarl on DU.

Its a dark day indeed.

Oh and PS. Obama will win NH.

[sfaprog]

59. Seriously - this is twilight zone shit.

:wow:

Wow. A dark day indeed.

[Kukesa]

80. Neither did I. Hard to believe we can stoop so low. n/t

[PM7nj]

8. Oh, I see... Rove.

We should listen to him. I am sure he is telling the truth.

[DJ13]

9. ....

A handsome St. Bernard went to a telegram office, took out a blank form and wrote: "Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof."

The clerk examined the paper and politely told the dog: "There are only
nine words here. You could send another Woof for the same price."

"But," the dog replied, "that would make no sense at all."

[Thrill]

10. Ever wonder why Rove, Bennett, Rush, Pat Buchanon, etc....Just love tooting Hillary's horn?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

16. because they know that you hate her and worship the O...and the turd blossom has won

they (RoveCo gamed that way and we have been played like a cheap violin

[Name removed]

26. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[haymakeragain]

30. Sorry to ask this, but could you kindly reveal the logic behind

that post, sans the condescension? Gracias.

[PermanentRevolution]

68. Plenty of time for cicada comments, but no time to answer you...

Interesting...

[newmajority]

38. Take this Rove shit back to the Hillary HATE site

Where KKKarl himself probably has an account.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

49. the god damn cicada's are making a racket

[silverojo]

63. Because they know HRC would make the wingnuts turn out in droves

"All the better to elect McCain, my dear," quoth the Big Bad Wolf.

[dems_rightnow]

11. What about reagan?

How's she polling vs. Reagan? Because that's nearly as likely as her facing McCain in the general election.

[hobbit709]

12. As if anything with with Rove's fingerprints is to be trusted.

[BlooInBloo]

14. That's nice.

[izquierdista]

15. "spotted holding some maps"

Hehehe, I've got some deeds to the London bridge too! :evilgrin:

[beachmom]

17. Karl Rove is responsible for the blood bath of the GOP -- their loss in Congress

was a major blow for which it will take years to recover, and people who identified themselves as Republicans are now switching to Independent. President Bush, for which Rove was his advisor until 2007, is the most unpopular president in modern history. Given this reality, why in the heck would I or anyone here give credence to Karl Rove?

[msallied]

31. Easy! Because Hillary is Rove's little protege!

And Rove assuages the fears of and encourages the hatred from Hillbots.

[JackCo]

18. This still boggles me.

Exactly when and why did people like Rove and Faux reporters become trusted reliable sources and allies?

[AtomicKitten]

19. Since she can't beat Obama, she won't be competing in the GE, so this metric de jour is moot.

[msallied]

20. Christ on a cracker...

I think I've officially read it all.

Rove. :vomit:

[Zachstar]

23. Hey ED How are the Election maps looking between Clinton and Abe?

The Civil War is such a wedge issue these days!

[northernsoul]

24. 'Cuz his predictions in 2006 were so accurate...

:sarcasm:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

57. Well, looky here:

Karl Rove, White House adviser

I’m looking at all of these and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I’m entitled to the math. <10/24/06>
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/11/07/2006-predictions/

[myrna minx]

84. Hi NS.

:hi: How have you been? I'd make a silly joke about our awful weather but, I'm too cold. :D

Did you ever think you'd live to see the day that Fox News and Karl Rove would be heralded on DU by some as champions of the Democratic Party? :wow:

[northernsoul]

95. What up MM?!

I'm not around DU too much these days. Gee, wonder why. :eyes:

I'm doing well, hope you are too.

I'm keeping busy with my attorney gig, and trying to have some fun and do a little good when I'm not working

[ProSense]

25. Hillary and co., supporting soon-to-be-jailed criminal ass Republicans from day one.

Look at what you have become.

[Forkboy]

27. I pity you.

[last1standing]

28. I wouldn't put too much stock into what Rove says.

He is a manipulator. That is what he does.

Besides, based on his 2006 prognostications, I'm not sure he really understands the political map today.

[enough]

29. And please please PLEASE don't throw me into that briar patch.

[DangerousRhythm]

32. Quite simply?

Fuck Rove.

[Zachstar]

42. Amen!!

[Douglas Carpenter]

33. "Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.0% chance of winning in November"

"Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.0% chance of winning in November”(results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189"

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Real Clear Politics NATIONAL Average: Obama 49.0/Clinton 41.8

The nomination poll is an average of the latest polls from Gallup, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and ABC News/Wash Post

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

----------

Real Clear Politics NATIONAL Average: Obama 47.2/McCain 43.4

The general election poll averages the latest polls from Gallup, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post,POS/GQR and LA Times/Bloomberg

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.0% chance of winning in November”(results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189"

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Texas Hill Country]

34. this is no surprise. most of the electoral maps have her much stronger than he is.

[Zachstar]

40. Please tell me you are kidding.

[msallied]

41. See Post #33.

[Texas Hill Country]

44. and? that is a simulated fantasy election? its not statistical data

[mckeown1128]

90. Market predictions for elections have shown to be more accurate..

than polling. So, it does matter.

[kevinbgoode]

35. Well that settles it! Rove has decided the Democratic nominee

. . .as if we haven't already had every conservative writer, columnist, broadcaster and pundit with their noses running overtime trying desperately to dictate the Democratic nominee.

[Clear Blue Sky]

36. Rove is trying to do his own "operation chaos"...nt

[Zachstar]

37. Seriously ED what the hell were you THINKING posting this!

[mudesi]

39. ROVE?!

OK, you've officially outed yourself.

Go away, freeper.

[Carrieyazel]

43. Klown Karl's electoral maps also showed Shrub winning CA, NJ, WA, MN, DE

in 2000.

Nebraska and North Dakota are tossups? Nonsense. Connecticut??

And Wisconsin is a dead heat right now. Giving it to McCain now is premature. Advice from a clown who ruined the Repukes in 2006? Give me a break.

[graywarrior]

45. Rove?

Bwahahahahahahaha!

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

46. Based on the same math that had the Republicans winning in 2006, no doubt.

Rove is not magic. His numbers are not special.

[quakerboy]

47. Well Damn

Considering how well he has always looked out for our best interests, I have my ears WIDE open for any tidbits of wisdom he might deem worthy of sharing.

[anigbrowl]

48. Turd Blossom has spoken - bow down and obey!

[kid a]

50. It doesn't matter anymore - focus on the real foe - McCain (wasting energy)

[madrchsod]

51. when you have the supremes and jeb bush

then the state of ohio anyone can be brillant....well 2006 did`t work our but 2008 he`ll be back on top again!

[K Gardner]

52. Hillary's MINIONS now Quote Karl Rove ! On Democratic Underground !

[Warren Stupidity]

53. What were you thinking when you posted this?

Did you even start to consider the source? The appearance that using Rove as your source would have on the credibility of your post and your candidate here? Do you even care anymore to appear honest and thoughtful?

[dchill]

54. Trust Karl Rove!

:crazy:

[Colobo]

55. And you trust Karl Rove...

[graycem]

56. Hmm.. my map

has Rove going to face Congress and trying to lie his way out from between this rock and a hard place his tactics have put himself and the Republican party in. Yeah, I'd rather he stick his advice where his head is. :)

[4_Legs_Good]

58. ... and other irrelevant topics...

I don't know what Rove's or any other 3 way match up polls matter anymore.

Obama v. McCain is all that matters.

David

[Shakespeare]

60. Amazing how Rove is now a trusted source for Hillary supporters.

JFC, folks.

[Alexander]

61. Nobody cares. Take your right-wing talking points elsewhere.

[windbreeze]

62. I never thought I'd see the day when a member of DU...DEMOCRATIC Underground...

is pushing numbers from KARL ROVE as oneupmanship for their candidate, over our "presumptive nominee"....What the hell is going on here??....Then has the nerve to turn around and say in another post, that it means the "Turd Blossom has won"....while calling fellow members of DU cicadas....because they do NOT support those tactics or the other candidate.....Let's put it this way...."Turd Blossom" is NOT winning without YOUR help...and NOW I AM convinced....that the only thing Clinton IS after...IS to DESTROY the party, in order to win...thanx for making that abundantly clear to me...wb

ps: personally, I believe I CAN resist looking at his maps...because I don't believe he's doing them for the DEMOCRATIC party's benefit...has he been hired by Clinton now??.....for shame really...

[dailykoff]

64. Yeah Karl, he's a genius!

By Clinton standards that is...

[Mooney]

65. Karl Rove.

Seriously, Karl Rove.

[thewiseguy]

66. You have to be kidding! Please go away.

[Window]

67. Now, that would be funny if it weren't so pathetic. Karl Rove????

[thevoiceofreason]

69. Shouldn't it be a one week ban for channeling Rove?

Aren't we democrats?

[tekisui]

70. How does Kerry, Gore and Dean do?

That is as relevant as Hillary.

[berni_mccoy]

71. I Bet Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame are having a MAJOR WTF MOMENT.

[slinkerwink]

72. KARL ROVE?!?!?!?!?? THAT FUCKING TRAITOR!!!!!!!!!

[ecstatic]

73. You guys have reached ROCK BOTTOM citing a lying, conniving traitor

on DU. Are you serious? No, seriously...?

[beachmom]

75. They are only emulating their role model Queen Hillary and

Larry Johnson who prior to being a sickening Obama hater was a champion in defending Valerie Plame's honor after Karl Rove and Scooter Libby outed her. I feel like I don't really know these people anymore, or if I ever did. Does Valerie Plame and Joe Wilson approve of this message? Inquiring minds would like to know.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

74. I guess Karl Rove is cheaper than Mark Penn.

[Perry Logan]

76. Another topic the Obamites don't want to talk about, yes?

[wileedog]

87. Seriously, why do you?

[Arugula Latte]

77. We all know that if there is one person who never lies and also has our best interests at heart,

it has to be Karl Rove.

:rofl:

[lojasmo]

78. Why any democrat would give a FLYING FUCK

about what Rove says, or give an ounce of credence to his traitorous bullshit just boggles the mind.

[saltpoint]

79. When you cite a finding by Karl Rove -- actually not EVEN a finding

but a slanted projection -- and you do it on a liberal website, I experience the same emotion as when someone tracks dog shit into our house from the street outside.

For you Republican lurkers, yes -- I am in fact equating Karl Rove with dog shit.

I don't think much of this post. I've had quite plenty of Karl Rove and his ilk and his dark milieu for one lifetime.

[Melinda]

85. I share the sentiment. The OP should be banned and all supporting this tripe banned as well.

I'm a free speech touting extreme left wing liberal, however - there has to be a line drawn at this point otherwise DU has devolved into theatre of the absurd.

[saltpoint]

88. Hi, Melinda -- I'm depressed when I see the mainstream media doing their

We Just Adore Karl Rove bit.

I guess I should admit that nothing the mainstream media emphasizes these days surprises me, but Rove sets off a singular set of nerves for me. I have a resolute disregard for him.

[Melinda]

91. Plame, Seigleman, 7+ years of Bush*... I guess I expect corporate MSM to carry Bush's water, but

members of DU? And long-time members at that?

What ever happened to not compromising one's self-respect? I would personally never, ever throw out my values in blind support of anyone, not even my own children, much less a political candidate... I just can't grasp my mind around this!

I emailed Skinner a few months back about all of this, explaining that I felt this forum was far worse than 2004. He basically said there was no significant difference, and yet, for me, there is... I don't recall anything posited by the opposition as proof of anything at anytime, unless it were posted by a troll... but ED?

For me, down is now officially up. Rove and Bush, along with every neo-con enabler of the Iraq war and more, should be in the Hague.

[saltpoint]

92. We're a couple of hundred days from the end of the Bush/Cheney

madness.

It has been a dark time, a time when our best instincts as people were distorted and misrepresented.

You and I and the people we know have no quarrel with any person in Iraq.

Or North Korea.

Or Iran. Etc.

Yet our presidents pretend we do.

That offends me at the bones-and-blood level. Of our 8 original Democrats, I would have vigorously worked for any of them had they won the nomination. As things stand, we will almost certainly be nominating Barack Obama in Denver this summer, and I think the world will be willing to give us another chance.

Bush and Cheney squandered the chances they had. But the rest of us are willing to do what's right and push ahead.

[Tatiana]

89. I strongly second this response. WTF is wrong with these people? n/t

[Honeycombe8]

81. Where's the map? You have a link to Rove's map? Obama's is different,

of course. So the Dems go after the same ol' purple states, election cycle after election cycle. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Michigan, Florida.

So I ask you....how's that workin' for ya? If you think that's workin' out fine for the Dems, then by all means, continue doing the same ol' thing.

Or....you can broaden the map, and maybe turn a few light red states purple? Maybe turn some other purple states blue? So that the Dems maybe don't have to campaign almost exclusively in OH and PA and FL? Now THAT'S a change. Will it work? Obama's camp is bankin' on it. And so far, their "strategery" has been better than Clinton's.

I'll look for his map and post it, so you can see. (Hint: It doesn't involve Florida or Pennsylvania, altho it'd be great if the Dems could win those states, too.)

[neverforget]

82. Connecticut is a tossup?

:rofl:

[stratomagi]

83. Interesting, Obama gets Edwards so Clinton pulls out Rove?!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Occam Bandage]

86. Okay, seriously? The Clintons now have Rove on their side?

[merh]

93. Yeah, and the hillary supporters are using Rove's numbers

and predictions to support their support of hillary - isn't it a full moon. :freak:

[EFerrari]

96. Karl Rove is a criminal and a traitor. n/t

[ericgtr]

97. It's sad when you would sell your soul to the devil for an angle

There is no level she would not go to in order to get what she wants. There would be no shame in totally giving Rove and his report the finger but that's just not how Hillary operates. Fucking sad how much some of her supporters on here have adopted the most hideous of Republican ways.