Poll question: could Obama energize black turnout to the point he makes the South competitive?

[Syrinx]

Poll question: Poll question: could Obama energize black turnout to the point he makes the South competitive?

(I posted this about 22 hours ago, but in the wrong forum. I was thinking GD would be the correct one, because this is about the General Election. But the moderator was correct in locking it, because it is remotely related to the primary situation.)

I'm talking about states like Alabama, where I live, that is about 27% black, and my neighbor Mississippi, where the African-American population is well above 35%.

Are there enough black people, that haven't turned out in the past, that could vote in November, that could make the South competitive in November? I don't necessarily mean could Barack win the South, but could he make it close enough that McCain will have to spend money, effort and time down here?

Just wondering what you all think.

[Honeycombe8]

1. Maybe...if combined with a low Repub turnout. He will certainly make the Repubs....

spend some of their cherished war chest in those states...something they cannot really afford, since the Dems will have a much larger war chest.

[Sherman A1]

2. I would look at primary turnout as your indicator

The NY Times has a great state by state (county by county) map that is worth taking time to review. Just go to their web site and find the election coverage, I am sure you will find it.

Also the Christian Science Monitor has a good map called Patchwork Nation on their web site.

[David__77]

3. Make it closer, yes.

But there will possibly be a countervailing white racist reaction that will partly mitigate its effect.

[Carrieyazel]

4. No. It won't be enough. VA and NC could be close, but maybe not.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Obama will be confronted by the old reliable math in a general election

Alabama? Fine. 15% self-described liberals and 44% self-identified conservatives. That's game set match, and 6-0, 6-0, 6-0. Swing states are along the lines of 20% liberal and 32% conservative, more or less matching the national numbers.

The easiest way to spot a weak argument is any proposal that ignores the partisan reality of a given state, and tries to cram it into the other column. Meanwhile, Bush won every state in '00 and '04 with at least 35% conservatives. Once you reach into the 40s in that category, we have virtually no chance. It would take a double digit national popular vote landslide to drag some of those states.

Besides, turnout is fool's gold in a general election. It's all about preference and Obama will have to deal with the demographic realities of the traditional swing states. The black vote and youth vote will soar only in close proximity to voting upswing in general. Unfortunately, many novice analysts have been spitting out ignorant scenarios, projecting typical participation among most major blocks, simultaneous with 20-40% surge in the categories they favor. It reminds me of NFL mock drafts in which fans will project all the wonderful players to their favorite team, miraculously bypassed by every other team round after round, before being snagged at bargain rate.

The white vote in states like Alabama is 80/20 or higher in favor of the Republican during a presidential election. That's what offsets the high percentage of black voters. It's remarkable consensus, in both directions.

[Syrinx]

6. tell me how you really feel!

:hi:

Oh, the 80/20 figure sounds a little high. But maybe I just run with the wrong folks. ;)

[featherman]

7. (Hi Awsi...welcome back) I think this needs to be explored a bit

Not disagreeing with your thesis but I was looking at somebody's (? mainstream, not liberal blog) numbers on MS where if the Dems got a bit over 20% of the white vote and 90% plus of a big AA turnout it could be quite competitive. Just saying.

[Alexander]

8. As it looks now, only in Virginia, North Carolina and maybe eventually Georgia.

I say maybe because we have yet to see if Bob Barr will take the Libertarian nomination. If he does and polls well in Georgia, it could be in play.

Other than that, not really. Florida and Missouri look to be leaning to McCain and the rest of the South is hopeless.

[FrenchieCat]

9. What about Louisiana...........?

[RichardRay]

10. I voted Yes, but not with a lot of confidence.

The operative word is could, and that only in conjunction with contributing factors beyond the single issue of black turnout. A dispirited Republican coalition would help, and we may have that. The break up of the religious right as a monolithic bloc, and the migration of some of those folks to more truly compassionate attitudes would help, too. It's not a slam dunk, but it doesn't seem impossible, either.

[hokies4ever]

11. Perhaps competitive on the down ticket

Congressional seats in the South will no longer be Republican safe havens. Local offices might start to fall as well.

[onehandle]

12. Deep South talking here. Georgia and Virginia are longshots maybes. That all.

The map this year is already looking like 2004. He will win because of the flipping of some Western and Central states. The South will stay red.

I say Ohio will matter the most again. Florida could go either way, but I think GOP control makes it unlikely.