THE MATH Weekly (GE Edition) – Friday, May 23

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Weekly (GE Edition) – Friday, May 23





Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 285
McCain – 253
Needed to Win – 270


Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 57,529,979 (45.4%)
McCain – 55,822,967 (44.1%)
Undecided/Other – 13,368,053 (10.5%)


Strength of Projection – 23.4%

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Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)







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Strength of Electoral Votes







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Popular Vote (50.1% needed to win)







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Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 197 (36.6%)
McCain – 131 (24.3%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 248 (46.1%)
McCain – 179 (33.3%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 359 (66.7%)
McCain – 179 (33.3%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 248 (46.1%)
McCain – 290 (53.9%)

Runaway Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 407 (75.7%)
McCain – 131 (24.3%)

Runaway Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 197 (36.6%)
McCain – 341 (63.4%)


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Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 44.8%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)




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Obama Projected Win Index (greater than zero is a projected win for Obama)







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Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.


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[Dark]

1. Can you edit in an electoral map?

Thanks. Kick

[phrigndumass]

3. Great idea, thanks! (done)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. Comparison of weekly tracking - Multiple sources

Projected Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

[Kukesa]

7. Yea! More great work! K&R

[phrigndumass]

11. We're starting a cult, Kukesa. Wanna join? :)

:yourock:

[FrenchieCat]

4. I am mightily impressed with this work of yours.

[phrigndumass]

5. Thanks Frenchie!

The sentiment is mutual, of course!

:hi:

[myrna minx]

6. K&R.

:hi:

[grantcart]

8. can you explain what is meant by 'strength of prediction'?

[phrigndumass]

9. The "Strength of Projection" is ...

... technically, the percent of electoral votes from states where the polls are current (30 days old or less) and undecideds are less than 10%.

Or, to put it another way, it's the percent of polls that are still good.

[Greyskye]

10. To the greatest w/ you.

:kick:

[FogerRox]

12. The vote was about 60/40 in '06, the OP says we regress from that

61% got LBJ an 42 state win in the EC. I think its far more likely we improve on that.

[phrigndumass]

13. Nice! A great bit of history there!

Thanks for posting that, FogerRox. The current polls don't show it yet, but I agree with you that it is very likely we continue on the path from 2006.

:hi: