The SD pattern of the past couple of days.

[tekisui]

For each Superdelegate that Hillary picks up, Obama adds two. He isn't flooding them, but maintaining and building his lead with each new Hillary SD.

Hillary received an Add-on yesterday, and one the day before. Obama picked up 4 in that time, none of them Add-ons.

Hillary received a non-Add-on SD today, from Guam. I expect at least two to announce for Obama.


5 Add-ons will be decided on in the next 3 days, from Alaska(today) should go to Obama. Tomorrow 2 from GA, 1 from WY, and on Sunday 1 from HI, all likely to go to Obama.

Currently, the SD standing is

Obama-306.5
Clinton-279.5

[Major Hogwash]

1. They're waiting for the states' primaries to be over.

Before they endorse Obama.

That way, Hillary can't claim later that the people in those last few states didn't get to have a choice to vote for her because the super delegates had already made the choice for them by endorsing Obama, before they had a chance to vote in those last few states.

So, most of the super delegates are waiting a few more days.

Then, after Montana is done voting, there will be a flood of super delegates endorsing Obama.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. They are playing the end game well n/t

[tekisui]

4. They stay several steps ahead.

Obama really does have a great team. True Professionals.

[tekisui]

3. I don't doubt it.

But, I like the way Obama Camp is answering each SD to HIllary with two of their own.

11 days!

[Shae]

5. While I think they'll eventually break for Obama . . .

the last 2 days (since the OR/KY results came in):

5-21-08 - Added Ohio add-on William Bashein (OH)# for Clinton
- Added Rep. Joe Courtney (CT) for Obama
- Added DNC Wayne Dowdy (MS) for Obama
5-22-08 - Added DNC Pilar Lujan (GU) for Clinton

On 5/20 Obama did pick up 2 and Clinton got 1.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

[Major Hogwash]

6. Chuck Todd told Chris Matthews yesterday that if you look at the uncommitted delegates left,

you can be pretty sure how they are going to go once the primaries are over.

Many of the super delegates that haven't committed yet are in swing states or states that could go blue this year with the right combo running for the White House.
Obama's coattails will be much longer in those states than in some of the more red states, but the theme of change is going to be the overriding issue this year.

[tekisui]

7. I expected at least two, today for Obama. He got them! One switched from Hillary

5-23-08 - Added Rep. Jim Costa (CA) for Obama
- Switched Rep. Dennis Cardoza (CA) from Clinton to Obama


I think the plan will be to put Obama within 10 on June 2nd. He should get 6 more add-ons and around 25 delegates from PR.

He can add 1.8 Superdelegates a day from now until June 2nd, and be sitting at 2016.

On the night of June 3rd he can declare outright victory after the last Primary vote in SD and MT. And the next day, 150+ Superdelegates can declare support for him.

[Kittycat]

9. He also picked up 2 NH Edwards Delegates today, to make it 4 Obama, -1 Clinton

[tekisui]

8. #3 today: DNC Jenny Greenleaf (OR)

[Kittycat]

10. +2 NH Edwards SDs (see above) = +5 Obama

Reported on ThePage & Ben Smith's blog.

[tekisui]

11. Very good!