The 4 basic political, not personal, reasons Obama cannot choose Hillary for VP

[scheming daemons]

1. He'll lose half his base

Not their votes, mind you... but their enthusiasm. And their cash. A large percentage of Obama support is from people who jumped in with both feet on his message of change. Adding Hillary to his ticket defeats and undercuts his entire campaign theme. The prevailing thought among all the new voters that Obama has brought in would be: "I thought you were against the status quo, and for change. Meh, you're just like all the rest of them. Why did I get my hopes up?" Some would still vote for him. A lot would stay home.

2. He'll lose any chance of winning among independents

Hillary is very unpopular among independent voters. They would flock to McCain in large numbers, as McCain himself does fairly well among independents.

3. He'll lose any chance of getting a significant share of disaffected Republicans

There are a lot of Republicans that are disenchanted with their party right now. They are looking for an excuse to vote for someone else. If we put Hillary on the ticket, all their hatred of all things Clinton overrides their disenchantment with the GOP and they'll hold their nose and vote for McCain.

4. The GOP base will be rallied

There's nothing that the Democrats can do that will do more to get the GOP rank-and-file to open their checkbooks and GOTV for John McCain than to put Hillary on the ticket. Their hatred of the Clintons runs deep. They don't much like McCain, but they'd open their checkbooks for the devil himself if he was running against a Clinton.



Now... I ask you, astute DU political observers, is placating Hillary's hard-core supporters worth all of the above? Yes... she has 16 million or so votes. But a large majority of them would vote for Obama anyway. Putting Hillary on the ticket would only placate those hard-core supporters for whom NOT putting her on the ticket is a deal-breaker.

And I ask you.... concerning the REALLY hard-core voters that hate Obama with a passion... would putting Hillary on the ticket placate them enough to make them vote for Obama? Come on, you know the answer is no. The 20% of Hillary supporters that have said in exit polls that they voted against Obama because of his race are not going to vote for him if Hillary is on the ticket.



The good news: The Obama campaign is smart and they know all of this.

[baldguy]

1. But the MSM never let facts get in the way of a good story.

[Alexander]

2. That's why he should pick Feingold. He would make Obama stronger on all fronts.

[FatDave]

9. As much as I would love to see an Obama/Feingold ticket...

...I'm not sure it would make him stronger. It would be vulnerable to cries of "latte liberal". Strategically, I think Richardson is the better bet, but damn, I sure would feel good about voting for a ticket with Russ on it.

[Yotun]

3. All true- especially an Obama-Clinton ticket: a black supposedly extremmely liberal man + Clinton ?

You will see a Republican turnout like no other in electoral history, and we negate the advantage of Republicans being disenfranchised by the current administration.

[scheming daemons]

22. Bingo

[FSogol]

4. 5. Geography. Obama will win NY without Clinton.

Pick a candidate that allows you to secure some other states.

Webb: Virginia and maybe NC
Richardson: New Mexico and maybe some Western States

[FatDave]

11. Wouldn't Richardson help in FL as well?

I keep bringing this up, and while nobody says I'm an idiot, they don't say I'm right either. If the theory is that Richardson will help bring Latinos on board, and FL has a lot of Latinos, is 1 + 1 == 2? Does Richardson have a problem among Latinos of Cuban and Puerto Rican descent? Seems like putting FL in play would be a big plus in VP considerations.

[FSogol]

15. While he might help, I don't think his presence makes FL a sure thing.

Latinos are not a big homogeneous group. Richardson will help more in the West.

[FatDave]

19. No, I agree it won't make it a sure thing...

But Barack has been spending a lot of time there lately, obviously not going to just write it off. Some strong campaigning plus a potential Richardson VP might be enough to tip it. At least enough to make it competitive.

[global1]

16. My Understanding Is Obama Has Richardson In Puerto Rico Campaigning For Him........

lets see how effective Richardson is in putting a dent in Hilliary's lead. This might be a good gauge as to how effective he might be as a VP in getting out the Latino vote in the GE. There's no question that with his resume he would make an excellent VP given a win - but we have to win first.

[CK_John]

18. Obama will not carry NY without the Mayor of NYC on the ticket. n/t

[FatDave]

20. Are you serious?

Nothing about that really jumps out as sarcasm, but you can't possibly seriously believe that.

[WeDidIt]

5. The "Dream Ticket" is only a Dream for the MSM

because Clionton's equate to drama and drama sells soap.

This whole primary drama has been better for the MSM than Brittany, Paris, and a dozen missing white girls combined.

[cascadiance]

7. "Dream Ticket" needs to be reframed by us as "Nightmare Ticket" which it is in another thread!

[mod mom]

6. 5. He'll have Bill Clinton second guessing his every decision publicly. 6. His message is change

Hillary is seen as a calculating Washington insider. 7. The neocons want control of protecting their turf-Hillary and her neo libs have the same ties to corporations & promote war for the MIC (I worry about having the second in line favoring their stance)

[MattNC]

8. The primary was too nasty

for their to be a dream ticket. If it did happen, and I were a GOP strategist, I'd use some of Clinton's clips repeatedly, such as "and Senator Obama gave a speech in 2002."

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

10. 1. yep 2. yep 3. yep 4. yep 5. he will be seen as a weak negotiator

[MadBadger]

12. She can't be controlled/not a team player

She wont run as Vice Presiden of his ticket, she will act like she is running for President, running on her own pans.

[Tinksrival]

13. People hate Bill for the Clenis

People blame Hill for the Clenis

It's not fair but it's a major part of our history that people can't get passed.

That's why Bill is so off the hook, he knows if she loses it's his Clenis' fault.

The disenfranchised Republican family and neighbors in my red suburb are entrenched in their anti-Clintonism.

The ticket needs someone who has served in the military...IMO....not Hillary.

[ElkHunter]

14. The war in Iraq is going to be an issue in the fall campaign...

...therefore Obama needs someone in that VP slot who did not vote to authorize the war.

[CK_John]

17. No matter who he picks, he will lose 1/2 of his base. Nobody will ever be good enough. n/t

[FatDave]

21. Richardson, Edwards, Sebelius, Biden, Clark...

Boxer, Feingold, Webb....

His supporters will have no problem with any of them. Well, maybe a few wouldn;t be thrilled about Webb. But Hillary is the only one a significant portion of Obama supporters will balk at.

Seriously, do you have some secret source of woefully uninformed posts somewhere?

[scheming daemons]

23. shameless self-kick...... 'cause it's still relevant to several recent threads..

[FatDave]

24. I'm not sure if this falls under personal or political, but...

I would be afraid that she wants the presidency a little too much. It seems pretty clear that she will stop at nothing in order to be president. I would not want that person to be my Vice President.