Well - So Much for Nevada. Rasmussen JSM/BHO - JSM +6 JSM/HRC - HRC +5

[PBS Poll-435]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election

[Colobo]

1. Polls are all over the place. Relax.

[AllentownJake]

2. It isn't even June yet

[PBS Poll-435]

4. You took the bait. Thanks.

WE MUST END THIS NOW!!!!!!

WE WILL SEAL OUR FATE NOW!!!!

THIS IS HUGE!!!!!!!

GET THE FUNK OUT HRC!!!!

:rofl:

[Forkboy]

33. So you were trolling?

[PBS Poll-435]

36. No. I was just shocked that someone would make that argument.

Seems to be the opposite what is being said here...

[AllentownJake]

47. Polling in June

is differnt than a convention in August.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

61. Why do you even dignify that crap with this crap? n/t

[kid a]

3. so much fresh BS it's steaming

[PBS Poll-435]

6. Take it up with the pollster.

[NJSecularist]

5. Another Obama electability goes down the tubes.

If he isn't going to win Florida, if he isn't going to win Ohio, if he isn't going to sweep the SouthWest, how is he going to win the election?

[9119495]

8. He'll win Ohio...

Plus New Mexico and Iowa. And likely Virginia.

That is over 300 EVs.

[NJSecularist]

11. Obama is not winning Virginia. It is a pipe dream.

And for Obama to win Ohio, he needs to make in-roads in Appalachia. Very unlikely considering how badly he has performed there.

[bookman]

43. Ohio Polls

Ohio Head-to-Head Polls
Ohio: McCain vs. Obama
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 05/13 - 05/20 -- 42.7 44.0 Obama +1.3
SurveyUSA 05/16 - 05/18 600 RV 39 48 Obama +9.0
Quinnipiac 05/13 - 05/20 1244 RV 44 40 McCain +4.0
Rasmussen 05/15 - 05/15 500 LV 45 44 McCain +1.0


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ohio.html

[Mike L]

78. The SurveyUSA poll is tainted. Dems represented 2:1 over Repubs.

Throw out that poll and McCain is ahead 2.5 points.

[bookman]

87. Just reporting what's there. n/t

[bookman]

45. Virginia Polls

Virginia Head-to-Head Polls
Virginia: McCain vs. Obama
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 05/08 - 05/18 -- 44.3 43.0 McCain +1.3
SurveyUSA 05/16 - 05/18 600 RV 42 49 Obama +7.0
VCU 05/12 - 05/18 852 RV 44 36 McCain +8.0
Rasmussen 05/08 - 05/08 500 LV 47 44 McCain +3.0

[Renew Deal]

55. Obama will not beat Hillary. It is a pipe dream.

Heard that one before.

[Quixote1818]

56. Actually, Virginia is a perfect state for Obama

Dems have been close there recently, and the large black population with put him over the top.

[NJSecularist]

63. Only if Northern Virginia is its own state.

There is more to Virginia than Northern Virginia.

[9119495]

80. Then there is the Jim Webb election to think about...plus Mark Warner

on the ticket for senate. Virginia is in the bag for Obama.

Call it a pipe dream...I'll invest in steel I guess. Webb was told the same stuff.

[Hippo_Tron]

84. "In the bag" is very overconfident, Obama will have to work his ass off to pull a win in Virginia

He can definitely do it, but it will not be easy. He's going to need massive turnout among African Americans and from the DC suburbs in Northern Virginia. If they show up to vote in record numbers he can beat McGramps who probably won't have as much enthusiasm behind him.

[9119495]

86. Fair enough...

you seem reasonable. I just hate it when people post a poll in Ohio and say it is all over but discount a poll in Virginia saying Obama takes it. You can't have it both ways. Either the polls matter now, or they don't.

I personally think EITHER dem would win in a walk. I am glad it is Obama leading the fight for the nomination and would be disappointed (but still supportive) if Clinton was the nominee.

[Zynx]

76. We've had the black vote there for a long time and have gotten creamed

The change is Northern Virginia, which has flipped our way.

[Mike L]

79. BO will lose OH, and IA and NM won't be enough.

HRC can/will win OH and she's ahead in NM also.

[PBS Poll-435]

10. You forget the States that he brings that COMPLETELY changes the map.

Like ...

West Carolina
North Virginia
New Dakota

[NJSecularist]

14. LOL

:rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[smalll]

59. Obama may win New Dakota, but McCain is way ahead in all the Old Dakota polls. /nt

[PBS Poll-435]

66. LOL- Old Dakota is "OLD Politics!"

Get with the times.

[still_one]

37. If people actually vote on the issues then WHOEVER the Democratic nominee is, we WIN

What are the issues:

1. The Iraq War
2. The high cost of food and energy, with the help of the Iraq War
3. Jobs
4. Healthcare
5. Social Security
6. The Supreme Court
7. The GI Bill
8. The slumping economy

The past 8 years have been controlled by the republicans, along with mccain voting along with what the administration wanted

The issues have NEVER been clearer

As STUPID as the American people are on issues, since many of these issues are DIRECTLY affecting them adversely, I suspect the results will be overwhelmingly reflected in our winning all THREE branches of government in 2008

It is too early to give credence to the pollesters, and I would also like to remind you, that the pollesters haven't been too accurate this year, from New Hampshire to Indiana

[Mike L]

73. BO can't win the Presidency. Superdelegates should pick HRC. em

[malik flavors]

7. Lol. One poll and now it's so much for Nevada? OK.

[PBS Poll-435]

17. It was subtle...

But you got the sarcasm.

And I love your sig pic and am glad you are for REAL unity.

Thanks.

[mcctatas]

9. Wow, you must love that BHO thing...

enough so that you've at least started using the other candidates initials too, except Hillary's middle name is Diane :eyes:

[PBS Poll-435]

12. Simma Down Now. Did what I could to fit everything in the subject line.

And EVERYONE uses HRC here.

[Straight Shooter]

18. It's KDS, prodn2000.

Kneejerk Disorder Syndrome. Seems to be especially prevalent on GDP.

[PBS Poll-435]

20. I know. Thanks.

[mcctatas]

22. ....

Oh please :eyes: It's just a silly juvenile nearly republican tactic to always use BHO, sounds like hannity...

[PBS Poll-435]

24. Please

Don't be a jerk.

It's Friday! :party:


And if you have ever read ANY of my posts, you would know how silly you look accusing me of that.

[mcctatas]

26. I've read your posts...

nuff said...

Happy Friday :hi:

[Straight Shooter]

27. Need a shovel? n/t

[mcctatas]

30. I must be growing...

I just don't want to play anymore, here, have a piece of chocolate...

[Straight Shooter]

46. I don't like chocolate. Here, join me for some pie

And coffee ...



:hi:

[MonkeyFunk]

50. LOL!

Once I used "BO" and was attacked for that.

There's just nothing you guys won't bitch about, is there?

Can we get one definitive ruling on which initials you find acceptable? Because no matter which ones we use, somebody complains that we're insulting Obama.

[mcctatas]

52. How dare you say "bitch" about to me...

I'm a woman ;)

BO is fine, BHO is hannity's favorite meme, also in the crawl on FOX all the time. It's silly, get over it....

[slinkerwink]

13. Obama Up By Eight Points in PA over McCain

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election

More good news on the polling front -- according to Rasmussen, Obama is ahead of McCain 47 - 39 in Pennsylvania. This margin is virtually identical to the margin that Clinton holds: 47 - 38.

[Mike L]

82. PA is a blue state anyway. No news. em

[indimuse]

15. It's the MAP!

http://bp3.blogger.com/_y7akKaUErMI/SDRP25MyQ7I/AAAAAAAAAWc/M3Vzkyk-esw/S259/MAP+not+MATH.jpg

[Straight Shooter]

16. Nevada trends conservative.

People's Exhibit 1: Harry Reid.

ETA: I think people perceive Barack as more liberal, when in fact, blah blah blah, he ain't.

[DemGa]

19. LOL

While 32% believe it is time for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race, 29% say the same about Obama. A recent national survey found that ongoing support for the former First Lady is so intense that 29% of Democrats want her to run as an Independent Presidential candidate in November.

[PBS Poll-435]

21. Therefore, she will slide into obscurity, right?

:rofl:

[JVS]

23. link?

[PBS Poll-435]

25. Same pollster

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fewer_democrats_want_hillary_to_drop_out

[JVS]

28. "29% say the same about Obama."

Your link says 23%

[DemGa]

31. No, that's copied and pasted without manipulation, lol

While 32% believe it is time for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race, 29% say the same about Obama. A recent national survey found that ongoing support for the former First Lady is so intense that 29% of Democrats want her to run as an Independent Presidential candidate in November.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election

[JVS]

42. Except for the manipulation of leaving out the first part of this quote

"The Nevada election poll found a continuing major divide among the state’s Democratic voters. While 32% believe it is time for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race, 29% say the same about Obama. A recent national survey found that ongoing support for the former First Lady is so intense that 29% of Democrats want her to run as an Independent Presidential candidate in November."
Everyone should know better than to trust you guys anymore.

In the other article, about national polling

"Among all voters, including Republicans and unaffiliated voters, 33% now say Clinton should leave the race. An earlier survey found that 29% of Democrats say she should run an Independent campaign for the White House. Clinton supporters are evenly divided on the question.
As for Barack Obama, 23% Democrats say he should drop out. That number has remained quite consistent through all surveys on the topic."
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fewer_democrats_want_hillary_to_drop_out

[DemGa]

51. That's not a manipulation - the OP was about Nevada polling

I extracted a bit of the article about Nevada and posted it - that's not misleading at all.

"Everyone should know better than to trust you guys anymore."

These leaps in logic and inference are astounding.

[nomaco-10]

29. Obama will clean up the floor with grampa....

WITHOUT hillary. That is why you post this stuff, isn't it. As soon as she ever gets out, he will concentrate on gramps, and he will be dog food. You did hear that the repubs are referring to their own "brand" as dog food, the kind that would have to be taken off a grocery store shelf, haven't you?

[Buzz Clik]

32. Thank for posting every day a single poll of a single state in which Clinton does better than Obama.

Please be certain to never post polling results in which Obama does better. It would cloud the picture.

[PBS Poll-435]

34. With a 15-1 Obama Supporter to Clinton Supporter Ratio here at DU -

I am sure that there are plenty of others that can post the "Obama does well" polls.

[Buzz Clik]

39. Excellent point! It's far more important to spin the hell out of everything than to dabble in truth.

[PBS Poll-435]

41. You can't be serious.

How is posting a contemporaneous poll that shows broader support for Hillary than Obama in one of his "KEY STATES*" spinning?

[Buzz Clik]

48. It's spin when you provide only one side and only one interpretation, of polling data in May.

[CatsDogsBabies]

35. Obama is the likely nominee

why do democrats on here seem so excited when they think he will lose a state? Why not get to work to improve his chances in these states?

[PBS Poll-435]

38. Obama needs to end this charade NOW.

Put Hillary on the ticket and we will all fall in line.

Ok, well at least I will. :P

[Buzz Clik]

40. Um. No.

[PBS Poll-435]

54. Yeah. He really does.

Within a certain margin of error, about the same amount of people cast a ballot for Hillary Clinton as they did for Barack Obama

[Buzz Clik]

57. Oy. Hillary hasn't even acknowledged that she's trailing. Why would she accept the VP?

[JVS]

44. I see no reason for his camp to believe that you will fall in line

[Mike L]

81. That won't do any good. Better for Hill to wait until 2012 and beat McCain if

the superdelegates screw up this year.

[Bensthename]

49. Hill bots always forget to post the other 49 states..

But I dont blame them. It keeps them feeling warm and cozy..

[PBS Poll-435]

53. Be less rude. It will help with the whole "unity" thing.

And recent other polls from the same pollster show Clinton doing better against McCain than Obama in California, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

But Obama does slightly better than Clinton in Mississippi. Just below 40%. :cry:

[ElsewheresDaughter]

58. Obama cannot win in Nov...sad but, but that's just the way it is

[dana_b]

64. no, it's not - you're wrong.

You Hillary people all get so excited thinking that way - like it gives you some sort of sick, twisted pleasure. Every other Hillary supporter says "he won't win" "he can't win" "you'll all see". Seriously, do you get off thinking that way?? "oh goodie! He'll lose and our candidate will come in to save the day in 2012!! Whoopee!!!" This does not make us think "oh, they're right, let's give up on the guy who is ahead and follow the person who has run a lousy campaign instead." It makes us all think that you're the ones who have been drinking the Kool-aid.
So far he's ahead of McCain in most polls and we have a looooong way to go.

[Mike L]

83. Correct. McCain has a lock on FL vs. BO, and OH's demographics are against BO. em

[ElsewheresDaughter]

60. k&r

[Phx_Dem]

62. You're relying on a poll

to tell you who will win a state SIX MONTHS before the election, when we don't even have an "official" nominee? Really?

All polls have Obama beating McCain in a national match-up. That's great news for us, but it doesn't mean Obama has already won (although he will! :D).

[PBS Poll-435]

65. Then Why...

Are so many here saying that we need a nominee NOW or we are going to lose in November?

After all....it is SIX MONTHS away. (actually.. it is FIVE and change)

[Phx_Dem]

92. Because a nominee

needs plenty of time to campaign and get his message out and "define" the opposition. John McCain has been doing that for months while we've been fighting with each other. The reason we need a nominee now is to influence the polls that are not in our favor, and strengthen the ones that are.

Remember how Obama narrowed Clinton's lead substantially in Texas and Pennsylvania? She started out 25-30 points ahead of him and by the time the primary rolled around she won the Texas primary (only) by less than 2 percent. He won the Texas caucus and earned more delegates. He cut her 26 point lead in PA to less than double digits. That's what happens when you have ample time to campaign.

If Hillary had any chance to win, I wouldn't suggest she get out of the race. But she doesn't. She has zero chance mathematically, and after yesterday, she now has zero chance to woo the Superdelegates. Game over.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

67. *****TODAY'S ELECTORAL MAP: Obama 302, McHundred 236***********

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6088503

[PBS Poll-435]

68. ***********************THIS ONE IS BETTER*********************

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Clinton vs. McCain - Clinton 315/McCain 206/Tied 17

Obama vs. McCain - Obama 242/McCain 272/Tied 24

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

69. why not go by the most recent polls? (that's what mine does)

[PBS Poll-435]

70. DUH -

I like the results of the other one better!

:hide:

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

75. by that logic then, I think Obama is up 538-0. hey...you're onto something!

[PBS Poll-435]

77. I am seriously hoping....

You could detect a hint of facetiousness....


You post would be WAY better with a map :-)

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

85. I don't know how to color in the states

[Mike L]

71. Another state that HRC can win, and BO can't. em

[PBS Poll-435]

72. Do you think they should team up?

[Mike L]

74. If HRC is VP, no. People vote for Pres, not the VP.

Now, if BO is VP, yes. BO is young. He would have 8 more years to groom as a Pres candidate. But if he runs this year, he is finished as a contender.

[datopbanana]

88. the two of you are huge jokes

[Mojambo]

89. OMG. Dude, it's MAY. n/t

[SoCalDem]

90. Perfecto

[Douglas Carpenter]

91. Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.9% chance of winning in November

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.9% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

-----------------------

Average of National Polls:

Obama 47.8/McCain 43.1 = Obama + 4.7

Clinton 46.0/McCain 44.5 = Clinton = 1.5

The general election polls averages the latest polls from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post, Democracy Corp, LA Times/Bloomberg, IDBB/TIPP, Battleground

links:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

--------------------------------

Gallup: Key Clinton voters are shifting to Obama



---------------------------

Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.9% chance of winning in November

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.9% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll