Obama Landslide: A Preliminary 2008 True Vote Projection

[tiptoe]

Obama 71–59m landslide: Will it be denied in GE?
TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm
May 17, 2008

The 2008 Election Calculator projects that Obama will win in a landslide: 71–59m (54.1–44.7%). The model calculates the True Vote based on each candidate’s share of returning 2004 voters as well as those who did not vote in 2004. But the official Recorded Vote never reflects the True Vote.  Accordingly, we can expect that Obama’s recorded margin will be closer to 64–61m. The True Vote landslide will be denied due to election fraud, just like it was in the 2006 midterms, when the Democrats won 10–20 more seats than official results indicate.  Obama is expected to do better than Kerry (who also won the True Vote) among blacks, Hispanics, new voters, moderate Republicans and Independents, but may not do as well with white Democrats.  The analysis is based on an estimate of total votes cast (including uncounted), but millions of (mostly Democratic) disenfranchised “caged” voters will never get to the polls. If they were allowed to vote, the landslide would be significantly greater than the projected 12 million True Vote margin.

In 2000 Al Gore won the Recorded Vote by 51.0–50.5m (48.4–47.9%). The Election Calculator determined that Gore won the True Vote by 55.3–51.4m (49.9–46.6%) which closely matched his 49.4% unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share. The U.S. Census reported that 110.8m total votes were cast, but only 105.4m were recorded. If not for the 5.4m uncounted votes, Gore’s margin would have exceeded 3 million. In Florida, 185,000 spoiled ballots (not including absentees and provisionals) cost Gore 120,000 votes. He won the state by a minimum of 60,000 votes, but Bush won the recorded vote by 537.

In 2004 Bush won the Recorded Vote by 62–59m (50.7–48.3%). The Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by 67–57m (53.2–45.4%). Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52.1–46.9% and the adjusted 12:22am National Exit Poll by 50.8–48.2%. The analysis was based on NEP vote shares applied to estimates of returning 2000 voters. The Census reported that 125.7m total votes were cast as opposed to the 122.3m recorded. Approximately 2.5m of the 3.4m uncounted votes were for Kerry.   Investigative reporter Greg Palast provided government records which indicated the actual number of provisional, absentee and spoiled ballots which comprised the 3.0m total.

There is no reason to believe that 2008 will be any different than 2000 and 2004. At least 3% of total votes cast will be uncounted, and 75–80% will be Obama’s.
...

 

2008 Calculated True Vote
                                Estimated vote share
  
2004  Turnout  Voted    Mix     Obama  McCain  Other
  
DNV       -     17.2   13.1%     59%     40%     1%
Kerry     95%   60.5   46.2%     89%     10%     1%
Bush      95%   51.6   39.4%     11%     88%     1%
Other     95%    1.6    1.2%     70%     11%    19%
  
        113.7  130.9    100%    54.1%   44.7%   1.2%
Total                  130.9    70.8    58.5    1.6
  
Recorded Vote (est.)   126.0    64.0    61.0    1.0
                                50.8%   48.4%   0.8%

2004 Calculated True Vote
                              12:22am NEP vote share
  
2000  Turnout  Voted    Mix     Kerry   Bush   Other
                                                 
DNV       -     25.6   20.4%     57%     41%     2%
Gore      95%   49.7   39.5%     91%      8%     1%
Bush      95%   46.6   37.1%     10%     90%     0%
Other     95%    3.8    3.0%     64%     17%    19%
  
        100.1  125.7    100%    53.2%   45.4%   1.4%
Total                  125.7    66.9    57.1    1.7
  
Recorded Vote (actual) 122.3    59.0    62.0    1.2
                                48.3%   50.7%   1.0%
  
  
Unadjusted Exit Poll            52.0%   46.9%   1.0%
True Vote Discrepancy           -1.2%   +1.5%  -0.4%

2000 Calculated True Vote
                                Final NEP vote share
    
1996  Turnout  Voted    Mix     Gore    Bush  Other
    
DNV       -     15.0   13.5%     52%     43%     5%
Clinton   96%   49.3   44.5%     86%     11%     3%
Dole      96%   37.3   33.7%      7%     91%     2%
Other     96%    9.2    8.3%     27%     61%    12%
    
         95.8  110.8    100%    49.9%   46.4%   3.7%
Total                  110.8    55.3    51.4    4.1
    
Recorded Vote (actual) 105.4    51.0    50.5    3.9
                                48.4%   47.9%   3.7%
  
  
Unadjusted Exit Poll            49.4%   46.9%   3.7%
True Vote Discrepancy           -0.5%   +0.5%  -0.0%

 

Download the 2008 Election Calculator (Excel) to run your own scenarios:

 

2004 True Vote
   Kerry   Bush    Other    Total   
   66.9    57.1     1.7     125.7   
   53.2%   45.4%    1.4%    100 %   
Uncounted                           
   2.6     0.7      0.2     3.4     
   75%     20%      5%      2.74%   

2008 Recorded
   Obama    McCain   Other   Total  
   64.0     61.0     2.0     127.0  
   50.4%    48.0%    1.6%           
Uncounted                           
   2.9      0.9      0.1      3.9   
   75%      22%      3%      3.00%  

2008 Calculated
           Obama   McCain   Other   
Cast        70.7    58.6     1.6     
Share       54.1%   44.7%    1.2%    
                                    
Switched    3.8     -3.3     -0.5    
Sw. Rate    5.4%    -5.6%   -31.7%   

 

Click for complete calculation, including: 
Scenario assumptions used for Uncounted Votes, Voter Turnout, Voter Mortality, Vote Share
Sensitivity Analysis consisting of two sets of tables, indicating Obama's vote share and margin for 25 scenario combinations of 
    1) Obama's share of returning Kerry and Bush Voters
    2) Obama’s share of returning Kerry and new voters (Did Not Vote in 2004)
 

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. "Crushed" will have new meaning.

[tiptoe]

4. yep. nt

[FogerRox]

2. 60/40 split

Roger Hussein Fox.


Goldwater lost 39-61%, 8-42 EC.

[kster]

3. K&R.nt

[tiptoe]

5. kick nt

[TexasObserver]

6. I believe Obama can win big in the fall. 300 plus electoral votes.

[Douglas Carpenter]

7. I certainly believe it is possible, very possible

I think it’s VERY possible!!...I'm cautiously optimistic myself


There are a number of reasons.

Among them:

1. Analyst predict that oil could very well reach $200 per barrel
over the next six months. link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=armYFIWZS8V0&refer=home

There are many, many factors affecting the massive rise in oil price. It would not be a stretch to assign some of the responsibility to the policies of the Bush Administration.

But regardless whose fault this is, the consequences will reverberate throughout the entire world economy and the incumbent President of the United States and his Party will be held responsible in the eyes of many, many Americans.

There is no doubt that many, many Americans will associate John McCain with the problem.

This has the potential to create for John McCain and the Republicans a political disaster this coming November.

2. And all of this aside, Rasmussen which has many times be criticized for having a Republican bias reports trending very favorable to the Democrats and very unfavorable to the Republicans. - link:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.9% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"Underlying this dismal outlook for the GOP is the fact that more and more people are considering themselves to be Democrats. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago. "see also this Rasmussen report on Party identity trending:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



3. And on top of everything else, along with a very low interest level as reflecting in very low primary participation, the Republicans are having a lot of trouble raising money for the Presidential campaigns:
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.php


4. President Bush Job Approval. Bush Job Approval Falls to Another All-Time Low: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/pol...

"Sixty-five percent (65%) disapprove of the President’s Performance, up two points from a week ago." "Also in April, as the President’s Approval Rating slipped, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats remained near the highest levels ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports."

5. Democrats Trusted More on All Ten Electoral Issues Tracked by Rasmussen Reports:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues/trust_on_issues

"American voters now trust the Democrats on all ten key electoral issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports. Last month, the GOP’s had an advantage on two issues.

Not surprisingly, the economy is still seen as the most important issue in this year’s presidential campaign--76% of voters say it is a Very Important issue. The Democrats now have a 14-point advantage over the Republicans on this issue, up from eight-points a month ago. Data from the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that consumer confidence is currently hovering near record lows. Not only is confidence low, three-out-of-four Americans believe that economic conditions are getting worse.

Government Ethics and Corruption is a Very Important issue for 71% of Likely Voters. The Democrats have a huge advantage on this issue—45% now trust them while just 26% prefer the GOP. That lead has also widened since last month, when the Democrats had only a six-point advantage.

Perhaps the biggest surprise comes from the fact that Democrats are now trusted more when it comes to National Security and the War on Terror, an issue long considered a GOP stronghold. The latest polling, however, shows that 49% of voters now trust the Democrats more on this issue while 42% trust the Republicans more. This shift comes at the same time that confidence in the War on Terror has fallen significantly."

[tiptoe]

9. plus many moderate Republicans will cross-over and vote Obama:

Why I'm Backing Obama by Susan Eisenhower

[a kennedy]

8. A 'blowout' victory for McCain in November?

(if you believe this garbage)

Conventional wisdom holds that this is a good year to be a Democratic presidential candidate. And many polls say that at least at this moment in time, either Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama would get more votes nationally than Republican John McCain.

But The Politico writes this morning that "many top GOP strategists believe (McCain) can defeat Barack Obama -- and by a margin exceeding President Bush's Electoral College victory in 2004."

Politico's David Paul Kuhn reports that:

Some Republican strategists can envision a scenario in which Obama wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College -- he might galvanize Southern black turnout, for example, but still fail to switch a state in the region.

Among the 10 strategists interviewed by Politico for this story, there was near-uniform belief that had any other Republican been nominated, the party’s prospects in November would be nil.

Full article: http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/05/a-blowout-victo.html

:puke: :puke: :puke:

[bookman]

11. "many top GOP strategists believe ....

George W. Bush is a fine President."

[tiptoe]

12. "many top GOP strategists believe ....

in election fraud."

[Coexist]

10. .

[tiptoe]

14. . nt

[tiptoe]

28. k

[helderheid]

13. In order to win, we MUST have a MASSIVE turnout like in 2006 to counter the machines. It CANNOT be a

close race.

[tiptoe]

15. agree! nt

[tiptoe]

16. Latest Pre-election State Polling Averages - Obama leads McCain in EV in 19 key states, 214 - 63

2008 Pre-election Polling
May 23

These are the latest RCP pre-election state polling averages.
Obama leads McCain in the electoral vote in 19 key states by 214-63.

On an EV-weighted average basis, he leads by 46.5-42.8%
Converting to a 2-party equivalent, he leads by 52.1-47.9%

Obama's lead is beyond the 4% margin of error in 5 of the 19 states: MN, NJ, OR, WA, CA
States most likely to be targeted for flipping by the GOP: OH, FL, MI, WI, IA, PA, NH, NM, VA, NC, CO, MO
The more things change...sound familiar?

It’s obviously very early to place too much faith in the polls. But the fact that Obama has not yet officially clinched the nomination and yet has a solid lead in the critical battleground states portends a landslide victory. Obama’s lead will surely grow once the focus turns to the general election.

                             Avg Poll                 EV                     Exceed
             EV          McCain    Obama       McCain    Obama     Margin     MoE?
Avg         277          43.3       45.8        63        214       -2.5       6
 
OH           20          42.7       44.0         0         20       -1.3         
PA           21          40.5       46.3         0         21       -5.8         
FL           27          44.7       46.3         0         27       -1.6         
WI           10          41.7       47.3         0         10       -5.6         
IA            7          41.7       47.3         0          7       -5.6         
 
MN           10          39.7       50.7         0         10      -11.0      yes
MO           11          48.0       45.0        11          0        3.0          
NM            5          44.0       44.0         0          5        0.0          
NV            5          46.0       40.0         5          0        6.0          
CO            9          42.0       48.0         0          9       -6.0         
 
MI           17          43.7       44.3         0         17       -0.6         
NH            4          44.7       43.3         4          0        1.4          
NJ           15          40.0       49.3         0         15       -9.3      yes
VA           13          44.3       43.0        13          0        1.3          
NC           15          48.0       42.3        15          0        5.7          
 
GA           15          53.7       40.0        15          0       13.7      yes
OR            7          39.3       49.7         0          7      -10.4      yes
WA           11          39.7       49.7         0         11      -10.0      yes
CA           55          39.0       50.5         0         55      -11.5      yes

[Zynx]

18. Why in God's name is Georgia on that list?

That is not a competitive state at all.

[tiptoe]

19. All of RCP's "battleground" states were used. ...

If GA is not included, Obama's EV and vote share lead is even greater.
GA is the ONLY state in which Obama is not competitive or has a big lead.

[Zynx]

20. I'm still trying to figure out why people keep bringing up Georgia.

All the evidence I have seen over the past decade is that Georgia is slipping AWAY from the Democrats, not toward them.

[tiptoe]

21. GA is 100% DRE, IIRC...

not even a DEmocracy ;)

[suston96]

17. I will stick with this one for now.....

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May27.html

Meanwhile, this is how Hillary would do:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May27.html

But she won't win the nomination because the super delegates haven't seen these maps.

[tiptoe]

23. nice maps. nt

[tiptoe]

32. an update of the map should be interesting, given recent poll from CA.

CA poll: CA Dems now prefer Obama to Clinton 51% to 38%

Release #2270 Release Date and Time: 6:00 a.m., Friday, May 30, 2008
MORE CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY VOTERS NOW PREFER OBAMA AS THEIR PARTY'S NOMINEE. MCCAIN TRAILS BOTH OBAMA AND CLINTON BY LARGE MARGINS IN GENERAL ELECTION MATCH-UPS.
By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

The results of the latest statewide Field Poll survey completed this week finds the following about the 2008 presidential election:

• Barack Obama is now preferred 51% to 38% over Hillary Clinton among Democratic Party voters in California to be the party’s standard-bearer in the fall presidential election.
  
  
• Relatively large segments of both Clinton and Obama supporters (22% and 17%, respectively) say they would not be likely to vote for their Democratic rival in the general election if their own preferred candidates does not get the nomination.
  
  
• Despite this, both Obama and Clinton hold large seventeen-point leads over Republican John McCain among a cross-section of Californians likely to vote for president in the November general election.
  
  
• A majority of Democratic Party voters say that either an Obama-Clinton ticket or a Clinton-Obama ticket would increase their likelihood of supporting the Democratic ticket in the fall and few say this would dissuade them. However, there is less appeal among Obama supporters for a Clinton-Obama ticket than there is for an Obama-Clinton ticket among Clinton voters.
  
  
• Four out of five Democratic party voters (82%) are satisfied and just 15% are dissatisfied with the way Obama has run his campaign. With Clinton 60% are satisfied and 38% are dissatisfied with the way she has run her campaign. Obama supporters are more critical of the way Clinton has run her campaign than vice-versa.
  
  
• Of the three presidential candidates, Obama has a much more favorable image profile among likely general election voters in this state than either Clinton or McCain.

...

[tiptoe]

22. k!

[azmouse]

24. kick

[Perry Logan]

25. Someone's had a few too many hits off the Hope Bong.

I recommnend you screw your courage to the sticking place, face the music, and get over to the zillions of burgeoning anti-Obama websites run by Democrats, and ex-Democrats. Even a Bammerite can't hide from the truth forever...

Election fraud aside...

Everyone but the Bammers knows Hillary beats McCain and McCain beats Obama--over and over again.

Everyone but the Bammers knows that roughly 17 million Democrats are infuriated by Obama;s dirty campaign and will do anything but vote for Obama. (I'm guessing this little glitch hasn't been factored into your landslide. Better have another hit off the Hope Bong.)

Everyone but the Bammers knows Obama has scores of shady, scary connections, with newer, even scarier ones appearing almost by the minute. I have read that there's a distinct chance Obama will be indicted.

As everyone but the Bammers knows, Obama is not much liked by women--and the numbers are going down every week. People favor McCain over Obama on all sorts of issues--foreign policy, whatever.

As everyone but the Bammers knows, Obama commits a new gaffe every time he opens his mouth.

All in all, the dude turns out to be nothing like what we hoped. Almost the opposite, in fact.

But getting back to these marvelous, wonderful anti-Obama websites--you've got to get over there! These folks pore over the polls and do themost inctricate projections--far beynd what anyone at DU could possibly manage. And it all spells doom for the Democrats if we go with the little guy. Sorry.

C'mon, Bammerites. It's over. I know the truth is painful (and after you've been so nice to everyone!). But you'll soon find out your pipe dreams just aren't true.

[uberllama42]

27. I would like to compliment you

on the creativity and variation of your vitriolic attacks on Obama supporters. I check into GD:P about once a day, and it always seems to me that you have a new pet name for them. I find it endearing.

I just thought you'd like to know.

[OzarkDem]

29. Hopium

[Starbucks Anarchist]

31. Obama beat Hillary, and if she can beat McCain, so can he.

[genna]

26. I might be in denial but I think conservative Georgians are going to vote for Bob Barr

I think Georgia is in play.

Us Georgians are going to need to go outside of the big city and scare us up some votes among rural Georgians. If not for national office, then for local office.

[AtomicKitten]

30. Oh yeah.

:kick: