GOP strategists mull McCain ‘blowout’

[daa]

Exerpt

It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain, many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama — and by a margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004.

At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish.

But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes.

By post-war election standards, that margin is unusually small. Yet it’s considerably larger than either Bush’s 2004 victory or his five-electoral-vote win in 2000.

“A win by 40 or 50 electoral votes would be an astonishing upset, just a watershed event with all the issues that were stacked against him from the very beginning,” said David Woodard, a Republican pollster and Clemson University political science professor. “But it could happen. I know this seems like wishful thinking by Republicans. I’m thinking that Republicans could win by 40 electoral votes. But I dare not say it,” he added. “Certainly what is possible could come to pass.”

A top strategist with the Republican National Committee, who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, explained that by his own examination, “we’re actually sitting pretty well in most states.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10585.html

[griffi94]

1. mccain is going to be more difficult to beat

than may here want to admit. to the non political junkie he's a moderate, solid fiscal record, war hero, and the maverick republican who seemed to buck the bush administration.
the democratic base seems too divided, and i no longer believe that this rift will be able to heal by november. hopefully we'll add to our congressional majority no matter what happens with the presidential race.

[Dancing bolt]

2. What a silly article

What expert expects McCain to "blow out" Obama? Even beating Obama by a small margin is a stretch right now due to the economic conditions, and almost every poll has Obama ahead.

[Tippy]

14. No doubt it's Bush and Rove...Remember the dirty tricks...

Dirty Republicans don't change their spots they just refine their ways....

[GarbagemanLB]

3. Yeah, a message of 'change' won't be powerful when gas hits 5 dollars a gallon by November.

[LibDemAlways]

4. It's hard to imagine Americans flocking to the polls

at $4.00 a gallon to vote for the guy who is promising to continue the failed presidency of the chimp - tax breaks for the wealthy, endless war, no health care, foreclosures, out of control inflation, economy in the toilet.

I think this may finally be the election in which Americans start to wake up and vote against the party that's been screwing them over for 8 years. That "top strategist" is full of shit.

[KingFlorez]

5. They are deluding themselves

McCain has very little chance of a narrow win, much less a blowout.

[AllentownJake]

6. Karl Rove

Predicted Victory before the 2006 congressional elections and he is the "best" they got.

Their only hope is Hillary continues to damage Obama as she's been doing since March.

[CaptJasHook]

7. Hillary fear mongering.

If you truly believed their was a problem then you would get behind Obama, contribute to him and the DNC and stop posting Right Wing/Hillary talking points.

Concern troll.

[TexasObserver]

8. Sometimes when too many of those GOP strategists get in the same room ...

... they get high from the smell of their own farts, and hallucinations ensue.

[GoesTo11]

9. Not to mention Hillary's effectively campaigning for McCain

But I think that to talk about McCain's unique strengths is a bit of fantasy. His best moments are when there are ads about him with the gravel voiced narrator and the patriotic music glossing over some of the uglier details in his bio. His worst moments are when he is really out in public expressing his views about issues of importance.

[Pathwalker]

10. John McCain's had FOUR bouts of skin cancer since 2000.

The press won't discuss it, no one here gives a damn about it, so he'll get a free pass on it, because it's all just about the HATE.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

11. There'll be a McCain blowout, alright. nt

[zanne]

12. I know we're used to being disappointed, but this is ridiculous.

I don't know how many posts I've read on DU about McCain winning in November. I don't know why people would post about such a ridiculous theory. Perhaps they want to be proven wrong, but it sure doesn't help morale here.

We sometimes sound like such defeatists. Why even bother then? Why even try? Unless people are consciously trying to bring the rest of us down, we should have a forum called "EXPECT THE WORST AND YOU WON'T BE DISAPPOINTED".

C'mon people. Stop moaning and groaning. You're missing out on all the excitement of a good election year for us! We're gonna win it this time! Smile, for chrissake!

[boobooday]

13. They can imagine this

Until the contest really starts.

[kid a]

15. with hillary on the ticket - i can mull that

[VolcanoJen]

16. Oh, that is so precious.

I really do hope they keep on thinking that the 81% of the nation that thinks we're on the "wrong track" is going to march to the polls to vote for McSame.

And I really hope Karl Rove gets more deeply involved in the campaign, because that assclown has certainly lost his touch. And what I really, really, really hope is that Bush campaigns a lot with McSame, so we can have a whole summer and fall filled with their birthday cake and huggy-bear parties. :-)

[pretzel4gore]

17. let them win!

mygod. It's the repukkes who know that only a democratic admin can pull the plane outta the swan dive it's in while mcsame thinks we need just a lil more gas, plus more stick, and faster faster FAS------------------etc! (old mcsame thinks it's a video game....it isn't)...if the repukes win, THEY LOSE! If they lose otoh, they WIN, in regards the repukes who care for the commonwealth will be able to see its situation improved, just by Barack's election, alone, in fact. So in a way, this kind of alarm, that America's inherent racism trumps its survival instinct.... truthfully; If the country allowed another repuke to steal the top office, and sit back doing nada, would anyone really feel compelled to go up on the rooftops and....etc?

[Arkana]

18. Of course the top strategists think this.

They don't get paid if they don't.

McCain will lose--and he will lose big. The environment has never been more toxic for Republicans than it is right now.

[daa]

19. It is interesting the responses

Not one of you counters the MATH. It says Obama can do like Gore and win the popular vote, but apparently you forget the electoral college (or supreme court) determines the winner. Not one of you countered the article.

Do you think he will win Florida? The Jewish vote says HRC first, McCain second. And the old folks in Florida will not vote for Obama. Ohio? Do the math folks.

Its cute to talk about $5 gas but I don't see your solution or Obama's solution. He has been in the
senate majority. What bill did he introduce and pass to solve the problem that Bush vetoed?

Think about it.