Booman: The Question Clinton Couldn't Answer

[Adelante]

This is a thoughtful piece by Booman that goes beyond the current discussion. I encourage you to read the whole thing.

I want to tackle this RFK thing from a slightly different angle. Let's for the moment put aside all talk of assassination and look at this from the perspective of what she was asked. She was asked why people are asking her to drop out. We need to remind ourselves that she was attempting to answer that question. It's a question that asks her to step into a non-supporter's shoes and look at things from their perspective for a moment. Now, her answer to this question was that she didn't know why people were asking her to drop out and that she found it somewhat mystifying given the history of long primaries in the past. She chose two poor examples to make her point, as the 1968 contest started and ended later than this one, and her husband's 1992 campaign was effectively (if not mathematically) over in March. But it's not so important that her examples were bad...what's important is that she seems not to understand why she is being asked to drop out. So, I'll explain it for her...real slow.

We have reached a point in the campaign where Barack Obama has won the majority of delegates that were available to win through the contests that have been held. What this means is that Barack Obama will win the nomination (provided he is still alive to accept it) unless an overwhelming number of superdelegates decide that he is unelectable. And I don't mean that they will decide that he is less electable. They will only overturn the expressed will of the voters if they decide is absolutely unelectable. That's their job and that's why the superdelegates exist. Hillary Clinton doesn't have much control over whether or not Barack Obama is unelectable. If her opposition research team has unearthed some horrible secret that will doom Obama once the Republicans get a hold of it, she should by all means come forward with that information before Obama accepts the nomination. But, otherwise, she should cease arguing that she is more electable. No one cares if she is more electable so long as Obama is electable. But let me make this more clear. Should anything happen that renders Barack Obama unelectable between now and the convention, the delegates (who are all technically free agents) will be free to choose someone else as the nominee. This is true even on the first ballot where most delegates are 'pledged' to support a particular candidate. They are 'pledged', but they are not 'obligated'. They can choose to vote for whomever they want. And, provided a compelling enough reason (think Eliot Spitzer) they will do so.

What this means is that Hillary Clinton can be the nominee if Obama is somehow rendered unelectable (through scandal or sudden death), and that she can even be elected on the first ballot. And, because she ran a strong campaign and received nearly 50% of the vote and 50% of the delegates, she has a far, far stronger claim to be the back-up nominee than the third place finisher John Edwards, or any of the other candidates. She doesn't need to win more delegates to improve her case and she doesn't need to win more popular votes to improve her case.

So, let's imagine a hypothetical situation where Barack Obama is no longer with us for some reason when we get to Denver. Anyone can be nominated on the first ballot, even people that were not candidates in the race. Let's say that Al Gore were to be nominated. If all of Clinton's pledged delegates and announced superdelegates stayed with her on the first ballot, she'd be in a commanding position. But she'd still need to win over some Obama delegates to secure the nomination. It's true that she can lower that number by winning a few more delegates out of Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana, but not by much. Her real mission would be to woo undecided superdelegates and Obama delegates to prefer her to Al Gore. And by running a negative campaign all the way through to the end, she will have given the Obama delegates and many of the undecided supers more reason to oppose her candidacy.

In other words, she is making her nomination less, rather than more, likely by scrapping for every last vote and delegate, and in doing it in a negative way. That is precisely why her active candidacy right now makes no strategic sense if her goal is to win this year's nomination.

Entire article

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2008/5/24/01948/5079

[gateley]

1. K&R -- Thanks!! nt

[mamalone]

2. I don't know Booman

but I really liked this article. I am needing this type of clinical and concrete analysis today.


Thanks for sharing it:)

[Adelante]

3. He's a thinker and a good writer.

I agree with your estimation.

[K Gardner]

4. She claims people have been screaming for her to "get out since Iowa". I don't quite recall that.

[agingboomer]

6. That struck me as strange also.

I never heard about anyone suggesting that she get out starting in Iowa. That is absolutely absurd. I also havn't heard anyone except KO speak to that issue. There is something wrong with her. Now having said that, I think all this outrage over the RFK remarks is nonsense. She wasn't saying that she should stay in in case BO got assassinated. That's nuts. I love KO and watch him every night, but I noticed once before when I thought his outrage was misplaced. Cannot remember what it was now.

[Raster]

5. The Clinton campaign is no longer about the Presidential nomination this year.

Not even Bill and Hill believe there is a snowballs chance in hell she will get the nomination. Not now. The little assassination troll fails miserably. No amount of wagging fingers can gloss this over. The Clinton political machine is now working from "no nod in 2008" contingency plans.

Scenario A: Live to run another day. This is probably the preferred scenario. Obama goes against McCain, and for some unGodly reason--electoral fraud, long knives in the back, intra-partisan sabotage--is defeated. McCain ascends to 1600 and inherits the full brunt of the cheney*/bush* debacle. McCain's administration is doomed from the start and only serves one term. The pump is so primed for a successful 2012 run, getting Hillary elected would be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Scenario B: No pony for you. Obama soundly defeats McCain. Hillary is NOT on the ticket and returns back to the Senate with her dreams of being the first woman President dashed on the rocks. The Clinton political machine must deal with "Clinton in decline" and a Democratic Party they no longer control. Brand Clinton crafts the most opportune exit strategy, retaining as much dignity as possible, and begins their farewell tour.

Scenario C: Never give up! Never surrender! Obama defeats McCain. Publicly the Clintons are the epitome of party unity. Behind the scenes, they're resistance fighters with the Clinton underground. The goal is to limit Obama's effectiveness and influence and grease the skids for a party mutiny, making 2012 a possibility.