Wait, it can't go to the Convention, can it? Is it possible?

[adoraz]

Once a candidate hits 2026, doesn't that candidate win the nomination?

According to RCP, Obama has 1969 delegates. That means he is only 57 away. Obama should get at least 40 delegates from the remaining primaries (maybe more, depending on Puerto Rico). Anyways, point is all he would need is about 17 endorsements.

Obviously, he could do that in a week and a half by June 3. Aside from an assassination, he WILL get at least 17 endorsements, and he will clinch the nomination in a couple weeks.

Once he hits 2026, doesn't it have to be over?

Would Hillary even be allowed to continue campaigning without the party tearing into her?

I mean, I guess technically the nominee isn't finalized until August, but lets be realistic, everybody knows who the nominee will be well before then, and the other candidates will have dropped out many months before.

Obviously she isn't the most graceful person, but continuing up until the Convention seems ridiculous even for her.

Will she do it, and can she continue past June 3 without the party members completely tearing her apart?

I think even Hillary supporters can agree that Obama will clinch very soon.

[dubeskin]

1. Most people have been saying June sometime

But recently, since Oregon/Kentucky, it's become probable that she MAY go to the convention and hope for a coup in which somehow all the delegates will end up voting for her and giving her the nomination.

And I think that taking it to the convention would be political suicide for her as well as severely lower the chances of the party unifying by the General Election.

[Andy823]

2. Well you never know

What the new winning "number" will be. Hillary seems to keep changing the numbers, and nobody can stop her. If she has her way, who knows who long it will take, maybe till "2012"?! I am sure McCain would like that also! :crazy:

[shraby]

3. That is why she's pushing so hard for the

delegates and voters from FL and MI to be counted. If they are, without penalty, that changes the number of delegates needed to over 2200. Whole new ballgame even though it's an underhanded play on her part after agreeing to the terms before.

[adoraz]

5. but what if that does happen and Obama still reaches the magic #?

could she still stay in even after Obama clinches?

[Gore1FL]

43. She can stay in as long as she wants

But after Obama clinches, she will be so outcast that the the fallout from the Assassination gaffe will look like a gentle summer rain compared to the political cat 5 hurricane she will unleash against herself.

[IndianaGreen]

10. She wants 100% of Michigan's delegation, including those that voted uncommitted

and she wants Florida. She also wants to count the popular vote in Puerto Rico even though they don't vote in the Presidential election.

[Yael]

36. I hadn't heard that about Michigan.

Not surprised though.

What is her logic for forcing the 45% "Anyone but Hillary" crowd to be pledged to her?

[DAGDA56]

4. If she does take it to the convention, the media will love it...

...expect to see primetime coverage with true primetime rates to go with it. This kind of drama makes for good TV, and that's all they care about.

[adoraz]

6. yeah, she'd have the media on her side

but the sane portion of the Democratic Party against her.

[Rageneau]

48. If she had the media on her side, it would be for the very first time.

The MSM hates Hillary. They even admit it.

[DAGDA56]

49. As we've already seen, if it means revenue, all will be forgiven...

...the media may hate her as you say...but they also NEED her.

[still_one]

11. She takes this to the convention, she has destroyed herself and the party, and represents

the real face of the Clintons

The only thing she will accomplish is a suicide mission

[derby378]

7. "NOBODY puts Baby in a corner!"

It's going to be a long, hot summer. Stock up on Gatorade.

[suston96]

8. It has to go to the convention. The delegates have to pass the credentials which they can do now...

...then they are seated in August at the convention. Then they vote.

If I have that out of order someone please correct it but I am sure the delegates have to vote - state by state in Colorado.

Even McCain is only the presumptive nominee until their convention.

[adoraz]

12. I know that, but what I mean is...

can she continue to campaign once Obama reaches 2026, and still be seen as a legit candidate (not that she really is right now)?

the party must have some control over this.

[gateley]

23. I'd like a direct answer, too.

I think if "the committee" settles on 2026 as the magic number, she can dispute that (because of FL and MI) and I don't know if they can stop her from campaigning regardless of what they determine.

And, if, let's say, she gets the number upped and Obama gets that magic number anyway, I'm not sure they can stop her from continuting and taking it to the convention hoping to change delegates' minds there.

[lisa58]

14. You're right - the official nomination happens at the convention...

...but if the superdelegates declare before Denver and give either candidate the necessary delegate count, it is effectively over.

[cbayer]

31. But as we are seeing, some SD's are changing sides.

My point is that they are not pledged and don't have to stay with an endorsement. They can change their minds on the convention floor. So, if the magic number includes them, it assumes that they will not change their minds.

If the magic number were reached using pledged delegates (who can't change their votes), then I would see it as quite foolhardy to continue to campaign. But that is not going to happen.

[Yael]

38. There have only been 11 to switch and all 11 went TO Sen. Obama

[cbayer]

44. I understand that and I believe it will continue to happen.

My point is simply a procedural one - they CAN change their minds at any time for any reason. The "magic number" included a group of people that can change sides at will. That prevents any "clinching" at this point.

I don't think for a moment that there will be a big swing over to Clinton, but it is theoretically possible.

[still_one]

17. The point is usually when a candidate realizes that they will NOT make it

they will step down so focus can be paid to the general election

What is being implied is not what you are saying, which would be just a formality, but an actual fight occurring at the convention

If the Clinton's do that, they may get their nomination, but they will lose the general election, and they will be thought of by most Democrats the lieberman is thought of now

[suston96]

25. There will be no fight at the convention if the delegate tally is acceptable to all..

But the leader in the delegate count may still be just the presumptive nominee like McCain.

Only the convention can pick the nominee officially.

[still_one]

29. It is the damage that will be done before the convention that is the problem

The clinton's have basically said MI and Florida must be counted, even though they violated the rules

If SD give throw their support behind Obama after the primaries, and the Clinton's continue to campaign and trash Obama, not only will they destroy themselves, but they will destroy our chances in the general election

[suston96]

34. Hillary will not "withdraw". She may suspend her campaign, but not withdraw.

Most candidates from both parties have suspended their campaigns but not withdrawn.

Now lemme see - where is my bouncing ball......?

If something happens to the presumptive nominee candidates who have suspended their campaigns can reactivate them.

Did I offend anyone by stating the obvious? I didn't say the "a" word.

[lisa58]

9. anything is possible...

...it will be up to the superdelegates to come out for their candidate to bring this to a close before Denver

[Bucky]

13. Well, then expect Clinton to withdraw around 2026 then. 2026AD, that is.

Of course Chelsea may be president by then... that poor kid having to compete against her own mother.

[adoraz]

15. LOL! It wouldn't surprise me.

[cbayer]

16. If he reaches that number using superdelegates

(which is the only way he could reach it at this point), then I think it does have to go to the convention. The SD's can say anything they want before the convention, but they are not pledged to vote in any particular way and could change their minds at any point up to the actual vote.

If I wrong about that, i would appreciate a clarification.

[lisa58]

18. The official nominating process is done at the convention...

...but if the superdelegates give one or the other candidate the required number of delegates for the nomination prior to the convention I imagine the other candidate's money would dry up pretty quickly.

[still_one]

21. If the SD commit before the convention, and if that commitment goes to Obama

clinton should step aside

If she doesn't, and actually continues the fight to the convention, she can go to ....., because she not only will destroy it for herself, but for the Democratic party in the general election

and that will be what the Clinton's final legacy will be if they are that power hungry

[cbayer]

33. My point it that their "commitment" is not set in stone.

SD's are changing their previous commitments now and can do so all the way up to the vote.

I think, however, that if enough SD's voiced their commitment now and that put Obama significantly over the magic number, Clinton would drop out.

[Skrelnick]

42. So you think the "hard-working-whites" & assassination comments will de-commit any SDs?

If so, I have some beachfront property in Arkansas to sell you.

[cbayer]

45. I believe that SD's who were previously "commited" to Clinton will switch to Obama.

I love Arkansas. Is the beach on one of those beautiful lakes?

[Yael]

40. I believe you are right

The question is in Clinton's court. Will she accept a first vote giving the nomination to Obama, or will she drag in lawyers and threaten to blow the place up on credentials (or some such).

[cbayer]

46. I hope that she will not do that.

I believe that she will step aside once it is clear that she can not get the required delegates on the first vote. I could be wrong. I hope I am not.

[Yael]

47. I hope you aren't either

Just reading how nasty the Texas delegation conventions were (reports of "hating her with the heat of 1,000 suns for challenging EVERY delegate) doesn't give me much hope.

[mudesi]

19. Don't EVER count on Hillary Clinton doing the right thing (nm)

[Oleladylib]

20. Long time from June to August..you never know.

she is absolutely allowed to stay the course...Democracy insures it.

[kenny blankenship]

22. Oh dear. You'll laugh at yourself for asking this question when she pushes her appeals to the SCOTUS

[adoraz]

27. ugh....

don't even put those ideas into my head :p

[frogcycle]

24. why not just sit back and watch

see what happens. Speculation accomplishes nothing.

[adoraz]

26. well its not really speculation

he will reach the magic number in a couple weeks.

I was just asking if she would still be allowed to stay in as a legit candidate under the party once he clinches.

[Honeycombe8]

28. No, it won't go to the convention. The big Dems will step in...or they will lose in Nov. nt

[WeDidIt]

30. Hillary can definitely take it to the convention

and destroy Obama's chances in November.

In fact, I daresay that's the plan.

[frogcycle]

32. all she can do is not withdraw

if he has the votes sewed up, and everyone knows it, then whatever she does or does not do is irrelevant. He will be the presumptive nominee; she will be a person making irrelevant speeches. That won't hurt his chances. She can show up at the convention, have her name put in nomination, and then get trounced in the first round of voting. That won't hurt his chances. It will just make her less and less credible, and destroy HER chances of any significant career advance.

[slinkerwink]

35. she'll still take it to the convention.

[nichomachus]

37. She's waiting for something to happen to Obama

She's hoping for a campaign-ending gaffe, or for her operatives to dig up some juicy tidbit from which he can't recover, for him to say "Allah be praised" in front of an open mike, or something that will knock him out of the box and leave her as the Last Candidate Standing.

This is Classic Clinton. They have lived their lives being plucked from disaster at the last minute numerous times. They figure they can wait it out -- and something will happen.

As far as the 2026, until the delegates actually cast their votes at the convention, nothing is written in stone.

As far as her political future, she has gone "all in," as they say in Texas Hold 'Em. If she doesn't win the nomination and the election, her career is probably toast. She has caused so much hard feeling and has alienated so many people that it's doubtful she could win her Senate seat back. Some strong candidate who was really from New York could probably take her in a primary.

Obama needs to play hardball at this point. He needs to tell her that if she drops out, he'll appoint her to any cabinet position she wants, an ambassadorship, or the Supreme Court (whatever she chooses), but if she stays in, she'll get invited to the Easter egg hunt and nothing more.

[Skrelnick]

39. Hillary has proven that "anything is possible." Tomorrow, 2+2 might equal 5!!

Pathetic.

[Auntie Bush]

41. Why are you so hypocritical as to think it's OK for you to post this.? Sheesh!

"Aside from an assassination,"