http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/24/19629/2660/498/522234by ROh70
In one respect, Hillary was lucky that she made the statement on the Friday before a long holiday weekend. That means there will be a few days lull until the media gets back and running again. I'm sure she's hoping that the controversy will just disappear over the weekend. That's not going to happen. It will be a major issue of discussion on the Sunday news shows, and there is also another big reason that it won't just go away: the 40th anniversary of RFK's assassination is coming up in less than two weeks on June 5th.
I. Impact of Statement on media narrative and polling
1. First, come Tuesday, the MSM will pick right up on the RFK statement story. You'll see segments examining the historical angle, the political angle, the race angle, and the fear for Obama's safety angle. And, most importantly, the media narrative will be focused on examining how harmful the statement will be, not only to HRC's campaign, but to her political legacy and political future. Pundits will be debating if Hillary is done as a politician, and that is a discussion no presidential candidate ever wants being discussed while she is still running for president.
2. Second, the story will then get further traction as polls will be released showing what people think about Hillary and her statement. Here's a wild guess - people will overwhelmingly disapprove of the statement. I suspect many people will say she meant no harm, but still say that it was inappropriate to say. What will be interesting to see is how African Americans feel about all of this. In any event, the polling results will not be good for Hillary. Moreover, I suspect the polls will ask people what they think about concerns regarding Obama's safety. Again, not something that Clinton wants people to be talking about, especially if they are connecting her with raising these security concerns.
3. Third, Hillary is going to take a hit in the election polls. I'm fairly certain that the Obama is going to open up an even larger margin over Hillary in polls of democratic voters. And, I think there's a possibility that HRC will be hurt in general election polls against McCain. I predict her numbers will drop in blue states like California, Massachusetts, and Oregon, and also in states with a large number of African American voters. I'd also watch out for any negative impact in Florida and with older voters in general, those voters who actually remember the RFK assassination.
4. Fourth, Obama should see a jump in his general election numbers. Why? Because the RFK statement will be the event that convinces voters that this race truly is indeed over, and democrats will really start to see the race solely as one between Obama and McCain.
II. Impact of Statement on HRC's Campaign Strategies and Rhetoric
If my predictions about the impact of the statement on the media narrative and polling turn out to be accurate, then, we should see a noticeable impact on the tenor and rhetoric of HRC's campaign.
1. First, if the polling numbers do show a significant decline in support for Hillary, well, there goes the electability argument.
2. Second, it will be much harder now to make outlandish moral claims regarding her fight to seat the FL and MI delegates. She no longer has the moral high ground, as further agitation on this issue will be met with more open skepticism. Any threats to take the fight to the convention also will now seem offensive, as it will now be out in the air that HRC is doing all of this just in the off chance Obama may get assassinated. She can no longer credibly invoke slavery and disenfranchisement because everyone will have the RFK statement in mind and think, that's the real reason she's doing this.
3. Third, the RFK statement has basically stolen one of her memes for staying in the race - that anything can happen. No way she or her surrogates can say that again with raising in people's mind her offensive RFK statement.
4. Fourth, the RFK gaffe really takes the air out of the whole sexism meme. What the RFK statement has done is made Obama's safety and threat of racially motivated assassination attempts now a major issue. We all were concerned about it, but it was kept hush-hush, as no one really wanted to talk about it publicly. Well, now we will be talking about it publicly. And that's a good thing, and hopefully it will raise public awareness of this issue and perhaps somethings can be done to prevent it from actually occurring. Real concerns about Obama's safety amidst REAL racist threats trump manufactured concerns about perceived gender discrimination. Geraldine Ferraro's sexism nonsense now looks even more pathetic now when we're talking about someone's life, especially after she had earlier made a race-baiting comment about Obama. I can't see Clinton trying to push the gender card any further, especially since there really isn't much there. And, I don't think we'll be seeing a word out of Ferraro anymore.
5. Fifth, HRC and her surrogates will now always be on the defensive when making media appearances, because they will always have to answer about the RFK statement, just the way that Obama always had the answer the question about Wright for quite awhile. And, no matter how hard they'll try, this is one statement that will be extremely difficult to spin. Moreover, I suspect that Hillary will actually contribute to keeping it alive by refusing to apologize to Obama and by refusing to admit that the statement had to do with Obama. The media will keep hammering her for not apologizing, and talk about how that affects her standing in the black community.
6. Sixth, HRC is no longer going to push her white working class meme very hard. She'll still try to raise it, but the danger is that the media will ask her if she thinks emphasizing the white vote may stir up racial tensions and create more danger for Obama. That is not a question HRC wants to be answering. I think we'll see this really pernicious meme die a slow death.
III. Impact on perceptions of Hillary's character and fitness to be President
1. I think another victim of her gaffe is that her experience argument has gone down the tubes. The pundits were rightly questioning how such a seasoned politician with so much experience could make such a blunder. If it was a deliberate statement, it impugns her motive. If it was just a mistake, it impugns her judgment. The MSM will be debating over how such a smart and seasoned politician could be so tone-deaf to political realities as not realize that raising the spectre of assassination so openly was political suicide? Is she really ready to be President on day one?
2. Second, her refusal to admit she made a mistake is raising issues regarding her character and trustworthiness. A pundit raised this point on Olbermann's show on Friday, saying her response to the statement was reminiscent of her response to Tuzla. In both cases, she seems to be showing an inherent incapability of admitting to making a mistake and a willingness to lie to avoid having to admit to a mistake. I mean, are we honestly supposed to believe she talked about RFK's assassination because of Ted Kennedy's illness when she raised the assassination on several earlier occasions?
3. Third, the RFK statement may have irreparably breached the Clintons' relationship with the black community. The relationship was already in bad shape, but now, this may be the final straw for some African Americans. I will be very interested in seeing polls on African American views on the RFK statement. I actually think they will be more forgiving than you'd expect. But, we should still see a growing number of African Americans further alienated by the Clintons. Criticizing Obama is one thing, but to actually admit to thinking about his possible assassination as a reason for staying in the race may just be too much.
IV. Final predictions
1. Clinton will not play hardball at the rules meeting and will accept a reasonable resolution. She will want to do so, but she won't, because she'll get a clear message from party leaders that they will not tolerate anymore of her scorched earth tactics. The RFK statement has destroyed any last political capital she had with dem leaders and superdelegates.
2. She will suspend her campaign in a speech on June 3, after the Montana and South Dakota primaries. Why June 3? Because she doesn't want to make a statement on or after June 5th, the 40th anniversary of Kennedy's death. By quitting before June 5th, she'll avoid having to answer renewed questions about her statement and why she hasn't yet conceded or suspended her campaign. As June 5th nears, there will be a lot of discussion regarding the dangers to Obama and the history of political assassinations. This is not a climate to be continued a failed campaign after having made an offensive statement about assassination.
3. You will no longer hear calls from Clinton surrogates for Hillary to be made Vice President. Diane Feinstein on Friday pushed the dream ticket idea, a very strong sign that the VP slot was something Hillary wanted. Feinstein made the remark before the RFK gaffe came to light. I think Feinstein will be reconsidering her position on the dream ticket.
4. There will be no convention fight nor any more threats of a fight at the convention. Especially since people will be talking about the fact that Obama will give his acceptance speech on the anniversary of MLK's I Have a Dream speech.
5. Finally, there's a chance to Obama will sew up the nomination by or on June 3rd. Clinton's justification for continuing is that neither she or Obama has the requisite delegates, whether the magic number is 2025 or higher. The superdelegates will now act to take away the last remaining justification for Clinton staying in the race beyond June 3. They were going to go for Obama anyway, but, the RFK statement may have the effect of accelerating the movement of superdelegates to Obama. We should start to see them endorse Obama at a faster clip than before. And, we'll see a lot more Clinton supers (The Cardoza 40) switching sides earlier rather than later. They won't mention the RFK statement, but, I believe that will be the main reason for the accelerated pace.
So, in conclusion, it's over.
I hope.
UPDATE: My first rec'd diary! Thank you. I plan to write another diary in a few weeks to see how many of my predictions panned out. My predictions certainly present an optimistic picture, but, I also believe they are reasonable predictions and I think many of them will be indeed play out according to my expectations. Ultimately, my predictions are premised on the notion the gaffe will move key Clinton supporters and superdelegates to put even greater pressure on Clinton to stop her scorched earth campaign. They were willing to let Hillary play out the primaries as long as she behaved and played nice. Well, she's doing neither now.
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