"Obama can't win and here are the numbers.."

[kentuck]

Just say, for the purpose of discussion, that Obama defeats Hillary in both the popular vote and the delegate votes. Why is it that he cannot win in the general election? Is it because he will not get the Hillary voters in the general? Of course, the assumption must be that Hillary will get all the Obama supporters if she is the nominee? That is an arrogant assumption.

But the record turnout in the Democratic primaries does not foretell what the vote count will be in the general election? If Obama and Hillary together garnered 35 million votes in the primaries, he would still need another 25-30 million to defeat John McCain in the general, assuming the Republican gets about the same number of votes that George W Bush got the last time around. Can it be done by Hillary or Obama? The truth is that we do not know.

We can only hope to persuade the Democrats to vote for our nominee and dissuade the Republicans from voting for theirs. We were not very successful the last time around, it is true. Somehow Hillary and Obama will have to find a way to triple or quadruple their primary numbers in order to be competitive in the general election - even against a weak opponent like John McCain. Looking at the stark numbers, one can see why it is so important to be united. Divided we fall, even if a large proportion of Republicans sit out the next election?

The Republicans know how to Get Out The Vote. (GOTV) It's going to be a very tough race. It is not guaranteed for either Democrat, or even, if both of them are on the ticket. It's a whole new ballgame. The primary battles will have to be put behind us and we will need to look at the very tough race ahead. Nothing is a sure bet. If you think it is, you are sure to be disappointed.

[RazBerryBeret]

1. moveon has an AMAZING

get out the vote record. I volunteered for them in 04 and was very impressed by their organization.

I know I personally overlapped some republican GOTV volunteers in neighborhoods and they weren't too happy to see us!
Unfortunately, one of the candidates dissed the moveon people....that will not work to our advantage.

[JoFerret]

4. Move on moved on

prematurely.Too bad.
And their efforts in 2004 didn't work so well either. Given the money they had.

[movonne]

7. The reason I became a move on contributer was to help the Clinton's and

look how the clinton's treated them...

[RazBerryBeret]

9. But Kerry won...

I live in Ohio.
the election was stolen.

Move On has over 3 million members.
they have campaigns right now to
counteract swiftboats.
help the burma victims.
stop the pentagon propaganda campaign.
stop global warming.
and they're fighting harder to end this was than most democrats in Washington.

oh, I bet they were dead to you once they endorsed Obama, right?

we can't afford to turn our backs on grass roots efforts, look what it has done for the Obama campaign.

[JoFerret]

20. He won. But he also gave up. So he lost.

But he did win.

[RazBerryBeret]

23. and move on helped facilitate that...

[FARAFIELD]

2. Hillary cant win now because she wouldnt get any of the Black votes

There I said it. She is babbling about WHITES staying HOME?!! She is doner than done. No one will talk about it, but there it is.

[VotesForWomen]

24. will any white candidate in the future be able to get AA votes if they defeat an AA candidate in the

primaries? seems like a bad precedent may be being set here.

[kentuck]

27. Hillary was getting most of the AA votes at first...

So they were not voting for Obama just because he was black? They switched to Obama when they saw they he could beat Hillary in all-white Iowa and they thought he might actually have a chance. We should keep that in perspective.

[FARAFIELD]

33. Your analogy about Blacks being upset if someone beats another Black in a primary

Is incredible You would have to assume that What Hillary is doing is acceptable and also that the white candidate didnt talk about the Black candidate getting killed.

[Blondiegrrl]

34. Depends. Will the white candidate repeatedly play the gender card

and then spew out a neverending stream of race-baiting attacks?

Funny. Hillary was winning the AA vote until she and Bill started shooting off their big mouths. They've helped Obama win the black vote by driving away a core base of the party.

[americanstranger]

3. I keep asking the same question and never get a straight answer.

What makes anyone think that 15 million voters (or 16, or 17 million, which I've seen here) are going to turn their backs on their party to support a candidate that didn't have the chops to win the primary?

It makes absolutely zero sense, but certain Hillary supporters cling to it like it's a proven fact.

Not one of them can give me empirical proof. The best they can do is reply with 'Yeah, well, you go on insulting us, you'll see' or some such nonsense.

In fact, I'd bet that I get a response along thoes lines for posting this.

They just can't face up to the reality as it stands. They'd rather believe that millions and millions of Democrats will desert their party for a loser.

- as

[kentuck]

6. It's not a very rational argument...

Not real.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Vinca]

10. Hillary signed the agreement that disenfranchised Michigan and

Florida. A fact that seems to have been swept under the rug by her supporters. Curious about that cheating in the caucus state thing you mention. Is that what Hillary calls good organization and getting out the vote?

[RazBerryBeret]

21. Getting out the vote...

and Good Organization-BOTH things we will need to win in the GE...
interesting how it is discounted...

[kentuck]

11. He "cheated" in the caucus states??

How did he do that? You make John McCain sound as popular as Ronald Reagan? Also, if "His support is much weaker than is purported in the media...", then Hillary's support is much stronger? There's a lot of assumptions in your post, imo...

[FVZA_Colonel]

14. I think it's part of the general contempt being shown for caucuses amongst some of his detractors.

Because he seems to be winning them overwhelmingly there has to be something wrong with them, or they just don't count.

[RazBerryBeret]

22. funny thing is,

of all the candidates (well, except for edwards) she should've known the most about caucus states, cause she went through it before with her husband...
didn't hear them complaining then....

funny.

[thoughtcrime1984]

12. Rubbish

[billyoc]

13. Welcome to DU! May I suggest the pepperoni?

:hi:

[americanstranger]

17. Where did I bring up racism?

If people 'show their anger' by siding with a loser, why not write in Edwards or Biden or Kucinich? What's this irrational fealty to Clinton?

Cheating in the caucuses is such a bullshit non-starter of an argument, it doesn't even merit a response.

The assumption that Obama lost certain states in the primary is proof that he'll lost those states in the general is also pretty bogus. If you want to try and tell me that Obama will lose New York or California with a straight face, go for it. Doesn't mean I'll buy it, and doesn't make it true.

And your argument, on its most basic level, makes no sense at all. Clinton couldn't beat the guy you call a 'weaker candidate.' She couldn't do it despite all the advantages she came into the primaries with.

And you evenetually get around to the same position that I initially pointed out - that people are so angry that they'll side with a losing candidate over party loyalty. And it's still nonsense.

- as

[shraby]

5. The Republicans don't GOTV as much as they know

how to suppress the votes with caging, moving polling places, tying up the phones so people can't call Dems for a ride to the polls, etc. ad infinitum.

[Zynx]

16. I've seen it first hand. They are very good at getting their voters out.

I lived in a 75% Republican town in 2004. I saw the effects of their phone banking and canvassing. It was impressive.

[GoldieAZ49]

15. 140 million voters in the GE

so dems need more than double the primary turnout.

[kentuck]

18. From 120 million plus to 140 million voters?

That's a pretty good jump in voters. Let's hope the majority of those will be Democrats? :-)

[Phx_Dem]

19. Clinton couldn't even win

her party's nomination. :cry:

[VotesForWomen]

25. another naive Obamite who thinks the GE is the same as a dem primary. america is really fucked if

the obama folks are the 'smart' ones.

[americanstranger]

30. Careful, that knife cuts both ways.

How many Clinton supporters here are looking at the primary states that Obama lost and claiming that he'll lost them in the GE? You know, states that never, ever go Dem like New York and California?

You got some 'smart ones' on your side, too. Just pointing that out for you.

- as

[RazBerryBeret]

32. I think the point was that

Clinton started her campaign with the biggest political machine, other than Bush & Co.
she started with the most super delegates.
she started with the most money.
she started with the best advisors money can buy.
she started with the brand name most associated with the democratic party.

she's struggled since January to keep up with a newbie,
black man
funny name
came out of nowhere
knows how to fundraise
knows how to reach people
knows how to run a grass roots campaign

she's in the hole financially
behind in the polls
forced to go back on her promises (Fl & MI)
can't pay vendors
behind in delegates
behind in states won...


so WHO'S FUCKED NOW???

[TahitiNut]

26. Let me explain the "hostile takeover" calculus once again.

Think of the Democratic Party as an array of voters (the 'base') along a spectrum from "leftists" that might otherwise vote Green (or stay home) to "corporatists" that would otherwise vote GOP. OK? Got that?

Let's say there are about 30% who would vote for a Republican if they were convinced that a Democratic candidate (like Kerry, for example) was indistinguishable from a "wacko leftist." Kerry was painted as both a "liberal" (a dirty word) and a "flip-flopper" (unlike Dubya or Hillary who never apologized for getting it wrong) and a "fake" (swift-boated).

That's 30% who'd consider voting GOP. That leaves 70% who wouldn't.

For EVERY voter who'd vote GOP there's a 2-vote difference. Subtract one vote from the 'D' and add it to the 'R.'
For every voter who'd just stay home or vote Green there's a 1-vote difference. Subtract one vote from the 'D.'

So, what we get is a Corporatist Protection Racket ... the THREAT of a minority against the majority.

"What're ya gonna do? Vote GOP?" That's not a problem for the 30% ... but a 'terrorist threat' to 70%. So the 70% gets in line and sells out to the corporate wing of the Democratic Party. (The real numbers are far more imbalanced and the strategy more complex ... but this makes the 'game' clearer, I think.)

As the Democratic Party moves right ... so does the GOP, just enough to leave no room in the mythical 'middle.' . AND THE WHOLE COUNTRY MARCHES INEXORABLY TOWARD FASCISM.

That's been the 'game' for 35 years. The People are frogs being brough slowly to a boil.

It's NO ACCIDENT that the Political Compass depicts our politicians so far to the right in a world with countries without the noxious "2-party system" ... where multi-party coalitions prevail in parliamentary democracies.

[alwysdrunk]

29. Damn, where'd you get thouse graphs?

[TahitiNut]

31. The Political Compass™

http://www.politicalcompass.org/

[Johnny__Motown]

28. This is so sad.... Obama can win as long as other Dems stop attacking him (Like Hill and Bill)

and you