Is there even a remote possibility that Senator Clinton can win* BEFORE August 25th?

[Aloha Spirit]

Poll question: Is there even a remote possibility that Senator Clinton can win* BEFORE August 25th?

Is there even a remote possibility that Senator Clinton can win* BEFORE August 25th?

I ask this, because it seems to me that Clinton has exactly zero chance of winning the nomination before August 25th.

*By win, I mean to receive a sum of pledged delegates and superdelegate announcements that is a majority of all delegates.

[Bad Thoughts]

1. Yes!

It will require a constitutional amendment that will annex the 52 provinces of Iraq and Afghanistan and give them statehood.

It could happen.

[Aloha Spirit]

3. OH man, I would love to see a constitutional amendment passed in less than three months!

No! I take that back.
Please, government, do not pass any constitutional amendments this summer.

[Bad Thoughts]

31. Apparently, anything can happen

I guess we need to take a Richard Feynman approach to politics and consider all possible paths between two points.

[Aloha Spirit]

34. That's what I'm talking about.

Or he might say that a scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy.

[Gore1FL]

2. her chance of winning on or after August 25th is also 0

[polichick]

4. Maybe "winning" for her means making sure Obama loses...

...but it seems that these new noises about staying in until the convention show that she knows he'll have the magic number soon.

[Aloha Spirit]

5. I just wonder if voters in the remaining contests would support her if they thought that her only

way to win is at the Convention.
To me, that's the only way she could win.
And to me, that would be a compelling reason not to vote for her.

[LWolf]

41. As someone who just voted last week,

that was the compelling reason to vote FOR her.

Not because I want her to win. I don't. I wrestled with writing in a better democrat, or voting for the current underdog, for 4 months before I finally got to cast a primary vote.

Because I think both of these candidates are a disaster for the party, and I WANT it to be close enough to go to the convention.

[Aloha Spirit]

42. I don't know, who could possibly step in and be the dark horse?

I don't see Gore doing it.

[LWolf]

48. Gore is the obvious, strongest, choice.

While he seemingly doesn't want it, he hasn't endorsed anyone in this race yet, either.

Edwards is a possibility; he earned some delegates before dropping out.

Biden or Richardson might also, even though they didn't get strong support, be compromise choices that could unify the party.

Shit: I'd be thrilled with your avatar, although I doubt the rest of the party or nation would agree, lol.

While I would, quite naturally, prefer a true left/liberal, after the public debacle this primary has been, it's better to go with a moderate liberal. One of the best thing about any of the above compromise candidates I've suggested is that we will not have already done the republican election machine's smear job FOR them before we even have a nominee. They'll have less time to gear up, and less time to influence voters.

[NJSecularist]

6. She has a 50% chance of winning the nomination.

[Hawkeye-X]

7. No she doesn't.

The SD's aren't changing their minds.

Go back to HIS44.org - thanks.

Hawkeye-X

[NJSecularist]

9. Yes, she does.

Neither candidate will win 2025 pledged delegates.

So it's a 50/50 proposition on which candidate will win the nomination.

Usually you'd give it to the popular vote leader (Hillary), but you never know with this party..

[Aloha Spirit]

11. What do you figure are Senator Clinton's odds if you use the definition of winning that I provided?

[NJSecularist]

12. She cannot win before the convention.

But she can win at the convention.

[Aloha Spirit]

13. Okay, thanks for clarifying that. Why do you say she can't win before the convention? Just curious.

[NJSecularist]

14. Because superdelegates can change their minds on the convention floor. n/t

[Aloha Spirit]

16. So you're saying superdelegates will not change their minds before then?

[NJSecularist]

17. It's a more organized format for the SDs to change their minds at the convention.

They will all be at the same place at the same time.

I say they could possibly change their minds before then, but it is more likely to happen at the convention

[Aloha Spirit]

20. I see. Thanks! I agree that if the SDs switch en masse, it will most likely be at the Convention.

[Richard Steele]

23. But she can LOSE before the convention. We all know she can, because she did.

nm

[Aloha Spirit]

8. How do you figure?

[Warren DeMontague]

51. That poster thinks they're being reasonable, by allowing that anyone BESIDES Queen Inevitable

even has a shot.

:eyes:

[SwampG8r]

10. yes

and i have a 50% chance of winning the state lotto every week
it either will happen or it wont

smart money says it wont

[Aloha Spirit]

21. haha yes, I guess it is 50%.

[Richard Steele]

22. She's already LOST the nomination. It's a fact. Get over it already.

nm

[quaker bill]

33. only if they decide it by coin toss

In the more conventional system, her odds are 1 in a million.

[Aloha Spirit]

35. You could say there are three possible outcomes.

She wins before the convention
He wins before the convention
Neither/other wins.

So the odds are in my mind at least less than even.
Possibly greater than zero, not sure.

[Hippo_Tron]

47. If this were a truly even race I'd actually be all in favor of that

But Obama is clearly ahead in every measure.

[quaker bill]

49. It is the only way she gets to 50:50

They would have to toss the rules out, then toss a coin. If they stick with the rules (an approach I support) then her chances are in the 1:1,000,000 range.

[Warren DeMontague]

50. Hey, look! That leprechaun is fucking that Unicorn!

Sure she does.

[Duder]

15. No

"If Hillary succeeds in getting Florida and Michigan added at full strength, then the needed delegates goes to 2,210, an impossibility, because that would mean the Rules and By-Laws Committee agreed to it, which won't happen. Those delegations will likely be seated at half strength which moves the magic number to 2,118 or 2,131, depending on whether the supers are also cut to half. Let's say it's the highest, 2,131 and that Obama gets ZERO for Michigan because he was not on the ballot. Using that worst case scenario, that means that Obama needs 95 delegates. Hillary needs 226.

Now. There are 212 pledged delegates in remaining primaries. To win, she needs all of them, plus 14 more Supers or some combination of each. This is not going to happen, especially if some of the Supers are looking for a reason to move to Obama. Her chance of winning this by the numbers, even with the best Clintonesque arm twisting, is ZERO. ZERO. It's clear that Obama is the next Democratic Presidential nominee."

http://www.chron.com/commons/persona.html?newspaperUserId=eljefebob&plckPersonaPage=BlogViewPost&plckUserId=eljefebob&plckPostId=Blog%3AeljefebobPost%3A8b1aaefd-3261-4f2f-bb1d-b93ede8862c9&plckController=PersonaBlog&plckScript=personaScript&plckElementId=personaDest

[baldguy]

18. There are 40 SDs up for grabs. Obama needs 10. Clinton needs 200.

[Radical Activist]

19. Before or after even if Obama implodes.

We're at the point where Hillary would never be chosen even if Obama withdrew himself from the nomination. It would go t a third person.

[Swamp Rat]

29. I agree

Furthermore, I believe she will lose her senate seat to a real progressive Democrat the next election cycle.

[ButterflyBlood]

24. No.

Not even if Obama WAS assassinated at this point honestly.

[Richard Steele]

25. Yo, Beat:

[Aloha Spirit]

26. Oh no!

That made me laugh pretty hard.
Mainly because of the lady who's "holding it."

[Richard Steele]

43. Thank you-cThat's EXACTLY why I chose that pic to label for this purpose!

Her presence takes that pic from 'ordinary' to "EXTRAORDINARY", IMO.

Richard

[LWolf]

27. Other:

Neither of them can win it before the convention. Superdelegates don't vote until then, and they can change their minds as often as they want.

[Aloha Spirit]

30. Well, what if you use the definition of winning that I included in the poll? Just curious.

[LWolf]

38. I disagree with that definition of "winning."

I don't think you should be counting "announced super delegates" when they haven't actually voted, and when they are not required to honor that announcement.

Of course, I don't think you should allow 4 states, 2 primaries plus 2 caucuses, to narrow the field of choice for the rest of us and then claim that one of the two left standing is the choice of the majority of the party, either.

The party is not united. The division is deep and ugly, and the numbers in the real world don't reflect DU: HRC has more support in the real world than here at DU.

It should be the role of the convention to heal that division. If neither of the current two can unite the party, then neither of them should be on the ticket. I think it's crucial that we nominate someone who CAN unite the party and win in November. Assuming that almost half of the party will hold their nose and get in line after the debacle we've seen between the two camps is a grave error, no matter which "almost half" is on the losing side. Again, imo.

I'd rather have a compromise candidate that can unite the party, myself. If not, then you'd better hope that which ever candidate is nominated at the convention is willing and able to make some significant changes that will bring the other half of the party on board.

[Aloha Spirit]

40. I agree, it's not fair that the field was narrowed so quickly. You just made me think of something!

Playoff-style elimination!
Err, maybe that would be a little too much democracy.

[LWolf]

46. Some things that would help:

Quit allowing corporate media to run debates. Let them happen on CSPAN, and guarantee that all candidates answer all questions, and have equal talk-time.

Ban polls. They manipulate the whole process before votes are cast.

100% public financing of all campaigns; no outside campaigning by other groups. An equal playing field.

A fairness doctrine for the media, mandating equal, and equally neutral, coverage for all candidates.

Regardless of when primaries are held, one national counting day, after the final polls in the final state close, where all votes are counted together; with no polling, that erases the early state advantage.

Finally, some form of IRV.

[Aloha Spirit]

28. I am glad that the "other" option was not for naught.

[quaker bill]

32. Greater than zero

less than 1 in a million.

[Aloha Spirit]

37. 0.0001%... you may be right.

[FrenchieCat]

36. NO

[Aloha Spirit]

39. If voters knew that Hillary can't win* except at Denver, do you think they'd still vote for her?

I kinda think no... and this is why Hillary might not do so well in Puerto Rico I'm thinking.
Puertorriquenos seem to be very aware of what's going on.

[intaglio]

44. August 2016 n/t

[greguganus]

45. Please add "Fuck no because she is a heartless sack of dog excrement." n/t

[baldguy]

52. Stop insulting dog excrement like that!

:P