Obama beats McCain in PA and NH according to right-leaning Rasmussen.

[Drunken Irishman]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election

Obama has also now moved into a tie with McCain nationally.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Just think how much Obama will move up when he actually starts really campaigning for the general and not the primaries! McCain pretty much has had the entire general election to himself and he hasn't been able to do jack. Once this becomes an Obama-McCain race, the polls will dramatically shift in Obama's favor.

And why do I believe this? Because even with many Hillary Clinton supporters saying they won't back Obama, the worst he does nationally is tie McCain and still wins in battle ground states. After a few months of campaigning, I expect many (not all, but many) Clinton supporters to return to the Democratic camp, which will almost certainly help Obama.

[ossman]

1. I think Barr running in NH will help Obama.

[FARAFIELD]

2. Definately help in GA where they know BARR

If obama can get a big turnout.

[woolldog]

3. Do they like Barr in GA?

I know he used to represent GA but is he still popular there? I'm a little surprised people think he'll have an impact. I don't get the appeal.

[ossman]

4. He doesnt need to be that popular to spoil

[FARAFIELD]

7. I dont think it will be much

But could be enough if OBAMA gets a big turnout. RED state sure, but you never know when "just enough" votes could work in your favor.

[teamster633]

5. I see a lot of Obama signs in southern NH.

Hillary signs...not so much...

[bullwinkle428]

6. It's HUGH if the NH prediction is accurate -

considering that NH is the state he took from * in 2000, and more importantly, the state that really gave him the cannon-shot of momentum that eventually propelled him to the "presumptive" nomination. It's a veritable second "ground zero" for pro-McCain sentiment, it would seem.

[Philipsanchez]

8. Statistical tie

in PA.

[woolldog]

9. go away

[Philipsanchez]

10. go away, woolldog n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

11. He's leading and it's great, eh?

I mean, Clinton supporters told us over and over again he not only would lose PA, but it wouldn't be close.

Yet here he is, leading!

Isn't it a great thing, Philip? It's gonna be awesome takin' back the White House, right? :)

[wmbrew0206]

12. It is a statistical tie

This is better news for McCain right now than Obama.

Here are all the head to head polls from www.electoral-vote.com of Obama vs McCain since March:

Pennsylvania Barack Obama John McCain May 18 3 48% 40% SurveyUSA
Pennsylvania Barack Obama John McCain May 06 6 46% 39% Susquehanna Polling
Pennsylvania Barack Obama John McCain Apr 29 7 47% 38% Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania Barack Obama John McCain Apr 24 1 43% 44% Rasmussen
Pennsylvania Barack Obama John McCain Apr 09 1 47% 39% Rasmussen
Pennsylvania Barack Obama John McCain Mar 31 8 43% 39% Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania Barack Obama John McCain Mar 10 1 43% 44% Rasmussen
Pennsylvania Barack Obama John McCain Mar 10 6 41% 45% Susquehanna Polling


This new poll shows McCain with in the margin of error, making it a toss up at this point vs a 8 to 9 point lead for Obama over the last month.

I'll wait before getting worried about PA for some other polls to confirm this.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. YES! He's gonna take PA, thank you for posting these polls!

:toast: to you, my friend!

:)

[wmbrew0206]

14. I hope your right, but that is not what this latest poll shows

Obama has to lock down PA to win in the EC. If PA goes red, Obama is going to have to win a lot of other states to make up for it. This would mean at least two to three upset states: GA, SC, NM, or MO.

Like I said, I'll wait for other polls to cone firm this latest one, but if they do, it is not good for Obama.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. He's winning.

And he will win.

So I don't understand what you're saying.

[wmbrew0206]

17. I'm sorry, I should have been more clear

Based of the polls over the last month and going by some polls in the website linked by the poster below:

In the poll the OP cited and in one of the polls for PA below, McCain is trending upwards in PA.

Obama seemed to peak at about 9 points over the last month and it is now back with in the margin over error.

I have a lot of respect for Obama's campaigning ability but right now PA is a toss up. If PA's 21 EVs go to the GOP, Obama is going to have to win a majority of the battleground states to win. PA is a MUST win for Obama and this state is now back in the MoE after being in Obama's corner by 8 points.

Personally, I think Obama needs to pick a PA VP to lock down the state and pick off VA to win. Ohio will seal his victory.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Ok.

Could it be because Obama hasn't been campaigning against McCain? Even after all he's been through, he still leads in every poll and some polls outside of the MOE.

For months Clinton supporters told us Obama couldn't win PA, yet he leads in the polls there.

[dtotire]

15. Check out this poll site

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/