Predictions for Saturday? (MI/FL)

[briv1016]

Not what you WANT to happen, what do you think WILL happen? (Not including appeals/lawsuits)

My prediction:

MI: 55-73, full w/ Supers

FL: full w/ Supers


No flames please, just predictions.

[Johnny__Motown]

1. I want the compromises forwarded by each state to be accepted

that would be a 59-69 split in MI and the 1/2 delegate solution in FL

Unfortunatly each state would still be given full SDs. I would like to see the SD punished more than the voters but it won't happen


http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers.html #4 in this list



anyways, I will predict that the compromises are accepted. a net 28 for Hillary cutting Obama's lead in pledged delegates to 133 (still insurmountable)

[TexasObserver]

14. I'd go for those, just to get it over with as an issue.

But I would also like to see the Superdelegates cut in half in both states.

[Johnny__Motown]

18. So would I, but the OP asked for what I thought would happen, not what I wanted to happen

[movonne]

2. Can I have some of what you are smoking???

[briv1016]

23. I just want this to be over.

This compromise gives Hillary more then she deserves but shows that Obama is the clear winner. Plus, allotting Obama the 238,168 uncommitted votes kills Hillary's popular vote complaint.

[cliffordu]

3. ENFORCE THE AGREED UPON RULES!!!!

No more goalpost moving.

[Yael]

9. I woul d like to see Supers from both states stripped

but I know that won't happen. They will protect the very ones who got them into this position.

[Johnny__Motown]

11. The compromises won't move the goal posts, just the ball, And still way out of field goal range

besides, she is down by 4 TDs.

[cliffordu]

19. Maybe 5 td's... I still wnat them punished. They might cost us this

presidential election and I think those responsible should be stripped of any status they might have. Malfeasance.

[Johnny__Motown]

34. I agree, but again.. the OP asked for what I thought would happen, not what I wanted to happen

[OzarkDem]

4. Predict Democracy wins

not Obamocracy.

I'll be in DC at the meeting to make sure.

[FrenchieCat]

7. Man, you should be ashamed of yourself.

and I'm sure that you actually are, once you remove your hardhat.

[Yael]

8. At or outside banging a wooden spoon against a soup pot?

[Swamp Rat]

13. I agree.

I do not want an "Obamocracy" nor a "Hillatocracy."

[cliffordu]

22. Maybe Mcauliff can give you a refund.....

[TahitiNut]

26. "I'll be in DC at the meeting to make sure."

Perhaps someone should warn the Secret Service. :eyes:

[grantcart]

27. don't forget your visual aids

BTW you do realize that Obama is so far ahead that even if Hillary gets all the delegates her way, including none for Obama in Michigan (which no one agrees should happen) that she will still have to get 72% of the superdelegates to win?

[briv1016]

38. Guys (and ladies) please; I said no flames.

[GarbagemanLB]

5. Hillary gets all the delegates from Michigan and Florida is seated as is.

Just kidding. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Michigan might go 59/69 for Hillary, and Florida will have its delegates receive half votes.

[Yael]

6. MI 59-69 full vote + supers, Florida half-vote as recorded + supers.

Net gain of 28 for Mrs. Clinton.

[rocktivity]

10. Both states 50/50

The DNC's hands are tied--anything else legitimizes what they say was a illegitimate vote.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Yael]

12. Good point.

[Politics_Guy25]

16. NYT article on May 15

said there were three options on the table:
1. Seat MI/FL as half delegations.
2. Seat MI/FL in full but with a half vote each.
3. Michigan was likely to propose seating 75% of it's delegation.

I think that both MI/FL will be seated with a half vote each with full votes for the supers unfortunately. I agree with the other posters here. 28 or so net delegate gain for Senator Clinton. Not enough.

[rocktivity]

32. Less than a full vote victimizes the voters--again.

Punish the real villains--the superdelegates--by reducing or stripping them of THEIR votes.

:headbang:
rocknation

[ekwhite]

36. If they give the uncommitted Michigan vote to Obama, I agree with you

Otherwise, it victimizes the voters in Michigan who couldn't vote for Obama because he wasn't on the ballot.

[Johnny__Motown]

42. The people who did not vote because they were told no delegates were at stake also need to

be considered.


Hillary said the vote would not count for anything. Some people in MI even crossed over and voted in the Repug primary.


Counting the votes as if none of this ever happened is just plain wrong

[rocktivity]

44. Here are the "metrics" the DNC's ruling has to meet:

- preserves their authority
- doesn't disenfranchise the voters of FL/MI
- rewards the states that obeyed their rules
- rewards the MI/FL voters who didn't vote because they were told their votes wouldn't count
- punishes the people who disobeyed their rules
- discourages other states from breaking the rules
- seats the delegates in way which acknowledges that people voted (though they were warned their votes wouldn't count)
- doesn't give either candidate an advantage (since the DNC warned everyone involved that the votes would not count)

:headbang:
rocknation

[Cha]

28. Thank you, rocknation..

they can't go back and rewrite history just 'cause hilary whines and bil wags his finger.

[Hawkeye-X]

15. My prediction here.

RBC enforces the rules, punishes both FL and MI for moving up the primaries too early - removes ALL supers, but allow half-votes for both MI/FL to be cut down equally 50/50, giving Hillary absolutely nothing.

Hawkeye-X

[Gore1FL]

17. Ultimately it won't matter

If she gets all of MI, and FL is seated as is, she is still behind. There is no way she is going to get all of MI.

[indimuse]

20. Obama and Co... CHEATED in BOTH states!!!

ZERO for the CHEAT!

[Gore1FL]

21. Really?

how so? I am looking forward to supporting credible links.

[Johnny__Motown]

24. No, Clinton is trying to cheat in both states.. but I do agree with your final statement

[Kittycat]

30. What keeps Indimuse off ignore: Pure Comedic Value.

Your posting is always good for a laugh. Thank you for the stand up. When's the next show?

[ekwhite]

33. I see. Precisely how did he cheat?

By not putting his name on the ballot in Michigan? I would like to hear some facts from you, not assertions posted in all caps.

[briv1016]

37. Guys (and ladies) please; I said no flames.

[Orangepeel]

25. The results of the contests, reduced by half

they'll seat half of Florida. The Florida appeal didn't even ask for the whole delegation in their appeal, only 50%.

I think that they'll give 50% of Michigan's delegates to Clinton and 40% to Obama, reduced by half.

I think that they will seat all of the supers for each state. I don't think they *should* seat any, but getting themselves seated is what the supers will fight for hardest.

[Kittycat]

29. MI = 50/50 split. FL=50% vote value.

[quaker bill]

31. Given rationality prevails

MI 59-69 (no supers - they are the ones who violated the rules)

FL 50% (no supers - they are the ones who violated the rules, and then sued the party) (and this only if Geller & Co dismisses his lawsuit with prejudice.)

Finding of fact that the contests were unsanctioned and that the vote totals are irrelevant to the nomination process.

a very modest and irrelevant gain for Hillary.

My preference, as a Florida voter, allow the states to send their full slate as non-nominating contest "representatives". They get to go to the convention, sit in on the committees and cast zero votes for the nomination in prime time. I would prefer that Geller and the rest of the FL Dem idiots who screwed this up be fully embarrassed with prime time coverage. Perhaps we will then get some new leadership down here.

[ekwhite]

35. I'm thinking it will be slightly different

Michigan 59 -69 full with supers
Florida full with supers

Of course, your scenario is possible - give Clinton a victory, allowing her to withdraw gracefully, saying she has what she wanted, and allowing for party unity. That might happen if Obama already has enough superdelegates in the bag to win with FL and MI seated as-is.

[phrigndumass]

39. The Gators will win by one touchdown in OT

The Wolverines will blow the lead, sending the game into OT.

Or:

Florida:
Clinton – 53 pledged delegates
Obama – 34 pledged delegates
Edwards – 4 pledged delegates
Unpledged – 2 add-on superdelegates (other SDs won't be allowed a vote)

Michigan (if it is counted at all):
Clinton – 32 pledged delegates
Uncommitted – 32 pledged delegates free to choose, but 90% of them will end up going to Obama
Unpledged - 3 add-on superdelegates (other SDs won't be allowed a vote)

[Lerrad]

40. They have to go 50/50 for both states or....

... an equal percentage based on the number of delegates they each have w/o these two states.

This would ultimately be almost the same as enforcing the agreed upon rules, because it would not change the outcome. The only difference is delegates would be seated.

[rucky]

41. All will count for half.

[undeterred]

43. Dolphins 16, Lions 3

:shrug: