GOP Stakes Claim to Appalachia in November Elections

[MountainLaurel]

In the heart of Appalachia, some Republicans are rubbing their hands in gleeful anticipation of Barack Obama winning the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

Trounced by rival Hillary Rodham Clinton in primaries this month in West Virginia and Kentucky, Obama also faces trouble in the Appalachian counties of key Electoral College states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, these Republicans say.

"It would be smart for Obama to make a cursory appearance or two in West Virginia and Kentucky and then concentrate on places where he actually has support," West Virginia Republican Party Chairman Doug McKinney said.

Republicans here and elsewhere are planning on an Obama nomination, although that isn't certain: Clinton has vowed to fight on through the end of the primaries and possibly beyond. But even if Obama does become the Democrats' candidate, the party says he won't write off Appalachia.

http://www.wvgazette.com/News/200805260420

All the more reason to try to prove them wrong.

[reflection]

1. Shocker. n/t

[stratomagi]

2. I had to do it.

[YOY]

3. Giggle...

n/t

[reflection]

10. Nice!

:thumbsup:

[TexasObserver]

4. If your family tree doesn't fork ... you're probably voting Republican for president.

[SoCalDem]

5. Don't need those states anyway,, let mcCain Have 'em

[NJSecularist]

6. Obama isn't winning Virginia and Georgia.

He needs Pennsylvania and Ohio.

If Obama ignores Appalachia, or he doesn't do well there, he will lose the election.

[CanonRay]

8. He's going to win Georgia because of Bob Barr.

He's got a good shot at Virginia, and will do just fine in Ohio as well. The rethugs totally screwed that state. Watch him win Nevada, too. Very young state, lots of drainoff of R votes to Libertarians.

[NJSecularist]

9. Bob Barr will be lucky to get 5% of the vote in Georgia!

Obama isn't winning the state. He'll lose it by 10+% like Kerry did.

He won't win Virginia, although he'll come closer than Kerry did.

Again, he needs to win Ohio and Pennsylvania. And those are not a given for him, unlike Hillary.

[Spider Jerusalem]

17. You just don't know anything much at all, do you?

Bob Barr is going to get more than five percent in Georgia; he is FROM Georgia, for one, and for another, Georgia is one of the states where McCain got beaten like a gong by Mike Huckabee on Super Tuesday. Georgia Republicans don't like McCain; a lot of them will be happy to vote for Barr, who they probably see as a more reliable conservative. He'll draw enough of the GOP vote to seriously affect McCain's chances anyway, the same as Ross Perot's presence in the race in '92 siphoned off enough GOP support for Bill Clinton to carry GA.

[NJSecularist]

18. You don't know much about 3rd parties, do you?

Barr will be lucky to get 5% in Georgia. He will be lucky to get 1% nationwide.

It's a pipe dream to think Bob Barr will get nearly as much support as Ross Perot.

[Spider Jerusalem]

19. I submit that I probably have a better idea of Georgia than you do.

I live here, for one thing. Barr has a degree of name recognition in the state, and Georgia Republicans, as I said, aren't happy with McCain as nominee. He'll get more than 5%. Less than 10%, but with strong (indeed, probably record-breaking) African-American turnout for Democrats in a state where African-Americans constitute 30% of the population, that will probably tip the balance, along with the percentage of white voters the Democrats will get in November.

[NJSecularist]

20. Obama is not winning Georgia.

You can end that pipe dream right now. I don't care if you live in the state.

[roseBudd]

29. yeah because everyone knows Georgia is the whitest of states!!!

[littlebit]

16. Yeah keep dreaming

He will not pick up one southern state.

[MattNC]

11. I agree with Georgia

you're far too quick writing off Virginia.

[KingFlorez]

12. He will pull Virginia

Virginia is trending Democratic, Democrats have done well here in the past cycle. While Georgia hasn't been trending Democratic, Obama is the type of candidate that could pull off a win by racking up big numbers in Fulton and DeKalb counties, while making a decent showing in other areas, not a guaranteed win, but he has a shot.

[NJSecularist]

22. You do not win Virginia without Western Virginia.

And what is Western Virginia? Appalachia.

NOVA is trending Democratic, but that is not enough to give the state to Obama.

[MountainLaurel]

23. Could Tidewater balance against the western counties?

Because the population density there is greater, could that area mitigate the votes of the west?

[Spider Jerusalem]

13. With Jim Webb or Tim Kaine as VP, Obama wins Virginia

and with record African-American turnout, and significant numbers of urban independents, he MIGHT conceivably win Georgia (reminder: Bill Clinton win Georgia).

[genna]

14. BHO needs to explore Appalachia area AND GA & VA

Bob Barr is fairly popular here in GA AND conservatives aren't happy.

VA will flip.

It is obvious BHO has uphill climb in Appalachia but I don't believe all of these Appalachians fit neatly into the same stereotypical mold. There is raw prejudice in some of these places. Many AAs who grew up in these areas quickly left when they became adults AND NEVER went back.

That said, they are extraordinarily poor areas and racial pride (which I think people falsely label American pride) is only one portion of their lot in life. They have other needs to which John McCain can't necessarily appeal. BHO on the merits can win. If you don't think so, consider BHO has done increasingly better in areas that most thought he would lose heartily.

10 point in PA to a Democrat.
41 point in WV to a Democrat.
36 point in KY to a Democrat.

The other Appalachia states MD (western), VA (western), NC (western), SC (western), GA (western). Local Democrats who are nonwhite have gained some ground with these voters for a reason. Surely a national candidacy can do the same.

Prior to 2--8, how likely was it that an AA could win the nomination of either majority political party in this country?

[Hola]

7. PA will vote Obama

Rendell won that state even though the Appalachia voters hate him. They will vote Dem in Nov, probably by 5%. NH will vote Obama as well.

I dunno at GA, VA and MO - those are real toss up states.

Obama can probably make a play for AZ - Mccain only got 47% in the GOP primary there, looking week all round.

[DemVet]

15. Yeah, that's one hell of an Election strategy.

:eyes:

[SoCalDem]

24. It's the "BARE-BONES" new map..

The old red-blue map will be retired this fall..

OH, MI, PA, FL are more than welcome to come to the party, but the old days of "advanced-wooing" & begging them are OVER...

I think at least TWO of them will come along, but the states Obama gets INSTEAD of them are waaaay cheaper to campaign in and smaller in population, so his style of campaigning is a good fit:)..and he has great surrogates in or nearby to help out..

[DemVet]

25. smaller in population = less electoral votes

Once again, great strategy. :eyes:

[SoCalDem]

26. It IS a great strategy.. It's how he WON!!

many small numbers add up..:hi:

[DemVet]

27. Those "small" states he won...

...are ones he won't win in the fall. They're GOP strongholds and aren't changing anytime soon.

[SoCalDem]

32. IT IS NOT NOVEMBER..DEMOCRATS ACTUALLY RUN IN ALL STATES IN A PRIMARY

:eyes:

We are in PRIMARY SEASON....

DEM v DEM IN ANY STATE WILL ALWAYS YIELD A DEM WINNER

and a state that traditionally votes dem will still be dem in Nov..

Obama can win where HRC cannot, and can and will win where she claims she can..

The same old tired map is why we lose..It always comes down to one big fickle state and a small amount of voter error, republican shenanigans, or even weather can lose it all..

NOT THIS TIME!!

[Cosmocat]

28. He is polling ahead of McCain in both ...

Ohio and Pa at this point, again, while having both Hill and McCain take shots at him ...

He is going to get at least one of the two, good chance both ... McCain is going to have to work VERY hard to get one of them ...

Florida is lost ... So, yeah, he has to pull AT LEAST one of the two, but he IS going to win states outside of the 16 corner Gore and Kerry got boxed into ... He IS going to flip Colorado and at least one or two more midwest states ... People can poo, poo them on their electoral votes, but when you flip it is double with the R losing those votes from their bank ... It adds up if you get a couple ...

I thought he had a shot at Virginia, but the polling there between him and McCain doesn't look real good ... Outside of native demographics, a lot of old school military ... Given McCain not being a raging lunatic type R, BO might force him to have to work to hold a couple of the southern states, at worth ...

EITHER WAY ... The false meme being pushed by the Clinton camp and being parroted by the MSM is that the electoral map will forever be locked into the map of the last three presidential cycles ...

This map IS going to look different ...

[anonymous171]

21. Obama and Webb should go on an Appalachian Tour.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

30. yuppers....Obama has taken them out of play for the Dems

[NC_Nurse]

31. Yep, it's usually such a hotbed of liberalism...

:eyes: