Atrios Hits One Out of the Park Regarding the Status of the Nomination "Race"

[Bleacher Creature]

Head Scratching

I know I'm not alone in the League of Mostly Nonaligned Bloggers in being rather puzzled by Clinton supporters. I don't mean all people who supported her, but the ones who are still pushing for her candidacy. As far as I can tell they want her to be the candidate and really just don't care how that happens as long as it does. At this point only a drastic rule change combined with a massive shift in support from superdelegates even gets her close to the nomination. In another words, cheating combined with the smoke-filled room residents overturning the outcome of the primary process.

I never really cared all that much about who won this thing, but at some point Obama became the only one with a legitimate path to the nomination. I just stare and scratch my head and wonder what it's all about. I appreciate that there are people who don't like Obama for whatever reasons and prefer Clinton for whatever reasons. But he, you know, won?

http://www.eschatonblog.com/2008_05_25_archive.html#1771859349757149962

[Joe the Revelator]

1. "But he, you know, won"

That pretty much says it all.

[VolcanoJen]

10. "But he, you know, won"

Because it bears repeating. :-)

[kentuck]

2. OK, choose the Snickers bar or the Reese's cup ?

You can't have both. You have to make a choice and stick with it.

[hiaasenrocks]

7. We can't buy Snickers and Reese's together anymore?

What is this world coming to?

[cliffordu]

11. That's it. I'm not going to vote at all then.

[reflection]

13. He got chocolate in my peanut butter!

He got peanut butter in my chocolate!

[SoFlaJet]

16. I have my Hershey's Kisses IN THE FREEZER baby

let em melt for 5 seconds and bite

[woodsprite]

3. Sounds like the same crap we've been complaining about

from the current administration since 2000. I don't understand why anyone should fault us as we try to be better than that and rise above, instead of lowering ourselves to use the same dirty tricks and smoke/mirrors that the other party has continually thrown at us the past 8+ years. Unfortunately, too large of a portion of our party continues to live in their own little world and think that politics as usual is just fine.

Truly, our lives, and the future of the United States depends on major change.

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. k&r..........nt

:kick:

[psychmommy]

5. i read the comments.

inside one of the comments was a link to a"dem mccain/repub hillary' site. it was truly disturbing. i really don't think hill's people are dems. these people are some scary hybrid that is hateful of obama and jimmy carter. wow.

[kid a]

6. baffling.

[OzarkDem]

8. Well, A, we need a candidate who can win the GE

and since the primary race is a tie at this point, we decided to support the candidate who has been polling ahead of McCain over the one who isn't.

[GarbagemanLB]

9. So 200 delegates behind = a tie?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Bleacher Creature]

15. Low blow -- why bring math into the conversation?

Everyone knows that mathematicians are sexist, cultish empty suits.

;)

[Sundoggy]

17. There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and Hillary's damn statistics..

...yes, you can use it, but I hold the copyright. :)

[cali]

12. Obama can win the general. And it's not even remotely a tie.

[VolcanoJen]

14. How disingenuous. That isn't why you decided to support Hillary.

It may be why you still decide to continue supporting Hillary. But you're nuts if you don't understand how much those "vs. McCain" polls will move once they stop polling Hillary and start polling The Democratic Nominee, otherwise known as Barack Black Eagle Obama.

[eridani]

18. That would be Obama, if you look at trendlines

He even is doing better against McCain in NY state.

[Douglas Carpenter]

19. Average national poll Obama 46.7/McCain 44.3=Obama + 2.4///Clinton 46.1/McCain 44.7=Clinton + 1.4

Average of National Polls:

Obama 46.7/McCain 44.3 = Obama + 2.4

Clinton 46.1/McCain 44.7 = Clinton + 1.4

The general election polls averages the latest polls from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post, Democracy Corp, LA Times/Bloomberg, IDBB/TIPP, Battleground

links:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

---------------

Average of polls for the Democratic Party nomination:

Obama 51.2/Clinton 40.5 = Obama + 10.7

The nomination polls are the averages of Rasmussen Tracking, Gallup Tracking, Newsweek, Reuters/Zogby, Quinnipiac and Washington Post/ABC.

-------------------------

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. "


"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.2% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

-----------------------

And here are the predictions from the financial markets:

Intrade Prediction Markets: http://www.intrade.com / (The Rasmussen Market figures are pretty much in the same ball park: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=261450# ):



Intrade Prediction Market gives a 61.5% to 63.4% chance that the Democrats will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 57.5% to 57.6%chance that Barak Obama will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 5.8% to 5.9% chance that Hillary Clinton will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.6% to 37.7% chance that John McCain will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.0% to 38.7% chance the Republicans will win the White House in November


-------------------------------------

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[saltpoint]

20. Obama is better positioned than Clinton to defeat McCain.

If Edwards is on the blue ticket, it might even be an stronger differential.

If Richardson is on the blue ticket, the Republicans lost New Mexico and Colorado, and will be forced to spend cash iin states they'd traditionally carry, and might even then lose those states.

Senator Clinton has lost the nomination. She's behind in all metrics.

I'm sorry that your candidate lost, but she lost just the same.