TPM..."Obama's Electoral Map" ( an Interesting, Serious and Non-DU Filtered Discussion )

[KoKo]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/197134.php

Obama's Electoral Map
05.27.08 -- 3:28PM
By David Kurtz

If BC is right, then the Obama camp is aiming its meta-message at people like me. I look at the Obama electoral map and just scratch my head. Can a Dem really win the White House while losing Pennsylvania, Missouri and Florida? Or winning only one of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania?

As SurveyUSA found in a state-by-state electoral college breakdown back in March, Obama could pull it off, at least in theory. But it's not a tried and true path to the Presidency for a Democrat. That doesn't mean it can't happen. But it is a high stakes gamble, the kind that looks brilliant if it works and, well, probably pretty idiotic if it doesn't. Not that Bill or Hillary would ever say I told you so.

Late Update: Dissent, from readers.

More of the "back and forth" from TPM readers about how Obama can win these states...along with the dissention at......

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/197134.php

[MadBadger]

1. He can technically win without winning OH, FL, and PA, but he wont

However, Obama can win without winning Ohio and FL. I think Obama will end up winning Wisconin and Michigan. Obama I am very confident will win Colorado and Iowa. He'd only need one more state to change, and its easy to see him winning New Mexico as well.

[Arkana]

4. He'll definitely win Wisconsin, and more than likely take Michigan.

The only way he doesn't automatically win Michigan is if Mittens is the VP for McGramps.

I feel confident we can win everything Kerry did (sans maybe NH) and take Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and Virginia from the red column. Anything else is gravy.

[FARAFIELD]

2. He needs to win PA

But then he just needs CO, NM, NV and IA, he can lose NH I think FLA and OHIO are lost causes either way.

[jefferson_dem]

3. New IA poll has him up by nine points, and Obama / Edwards kills the competition.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=34d61abd-3c0a-441c-b337-262ffcf3489a

[Zynx]

5. When it's all said and done he will win PA(and contrary to that one map NJ) as well as probably Ohio

I don't think this electoral map will look as different as many think. I think Obama will weaken in some of the Mid-South states like West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. He will be stronger than normal in Minnesota, Iowa, and of course Illinois. He will be quite a bit stronger in Colorado and Virginia it seems. I don't believe the Deep South will be competitive at all and I also am doubtful about NC.

[Elmagoo]

6. He will win ohio

And Arkansas, PA, and possibly florida.

[MadBadger]

7. I think Colorado will be a strong Obama state this fall

I think Obama will get a big bump there during and after the convention.