Rasmussen, 5/23: Fewer Democrats Want Hillary to Drop Out (23% of Dems think Obama should drop out)

[highplainsdem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fewer_democrats_want_hillary_to_drop_out

Friday, May 23, 2008

As Barack Obama inches closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 32% of Democrats now think Clinton should withdraw from the race. That’s down from 38% who wanted her to exit the race just ten days ago. A month ago, 34% thought she should leave the race.

Among all voters, including Republicans and unaffiliated voters, 33% now say Clinton should leave the race. An earlier survey found that 29% of Democrats say she should run an Independent campaign for the White House. Clinton supporters are evenly divided on the question.

As for Barack Obama, 23% Democrats say he should drop out. That number has remained quite consistent through all surveys on the topic.

-snip-

Overall, Democrats are evenly divided as to which candidate would be a better general election candidate against John McCain. Forty-six percent (46%) view Clinton as the stronger candidate while 44% say Obama will do better.

Emphasis added.

Please note that even though the story says Rasmussen Markets gives Obama a better than 90% chance of winning the nomination, "the strong and committed support for Clinton means that Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his candidacy. The way in which he resolves the challenge with Clinton could determine who wins in November."


Editing to add to the subject line and to add emphasis to certain parts of that excerpt.

This is, I believe, the main reason Obama needs Clinton on the ticket. Please note that the percentages saying Obama should drop out, or that they'd like HRC to run as an independent if she isn't the Democratic nominee, are percentages of ALL Democrats, and not just percentages of her supporters.

It's a very different Democratic party, according to Rasmussen, from the pro-Obama echo chamber here at DU.

[davidinalameda]

1. the way he resolves the challenge?

uh, he won the challenge

Hill lost

and Obama has a better than 90% chance?

I'd say that he has about a 100% chance, short of some maniac shooting him

[Leopolds Ghost]

49. That's the 10% Hillary is hoping for

Every time she says "something big happens"

Of course, the fact that all of Hillary's supporters want to leave the Democratic Party in an effort to sabotage Obama
I think is wonderful. I'm hoping they take it to the convention. I want the mask to drop off completely of the right-wing
"socially conservative" Tory war machine. These people would be European-style Tories if it weren't for their cultural
hangups about Obama. That's why most of them are ex-Reagan and Nixon supporters and pocketbook voting Bobo Dems.
Government entitlement for me and not for thee.

[Muttocracy]

2. I'm an Obama supporter who wants it to play out at this point

Otherwise it will be blamed on the superdelegates picking the nominee. Let her lose on all counts and be done with it.

The time to drop out to avoid damage to the party, attacks on Dem nom, and waste of $$$ is long past. May as well let all the states have a chance to participate this year.

edit for typos...

[HooptieWagon]

4. I'm with you

let her drag the DLC under with her, so we don't have to also fight corporatists within.

[Qutzupalotl]

53. Agreed.

Lately, when Clinton makes a gaffe, it's HER foot in HER mouth; Obama seems to be able to brush it off or respond as appropriate.

This extended campaign is forcing Obama to build a good ground game in every state, which will humiliate McCain in the fall. Thanks, Rush!

[LSparkle]

3. He has been praising her in EVERY speech ...

He has been doing as much as he can to reassure her supporters
that her campaign has been historic, that we owe her a debt of
gratitude, ad nauseum.

What will be important is how SHE exits this race. If she
goes away mad (and doesn't encourage her supporters to join
him in the general campaign, which I fear may be happening now,
in her surrogates' insistence that the focus on the RFK remark
is due to actions of the Obama campaign -- B.S.!), then SHE
will bear the responsibility for any loss we endure in November.

[Kittycat]

5. I see no reason why she shouldn't finish it out. She just needs

to do so with grace and dignity, and not go down like a 4yo being dragged out of the store having a tantrum. At this point, I'm going to take her at her word that she'll support Obama vigorously, and not try to diminish him (or the party) in any way that would cause harm for the GE and downticket dems.

[Poll_Blind]

6. Her self-destruction is entertaining but I wonder as to what the Hop-Frog's last jest will be. n/t

PB

[dionysus]

40. poe?

:rofl:

[Poll_Blind]

43. Ya. (evilgrin)...

:evilgrin:

PB

[dionysus]

45. hehehehehehehe best analogy evah...

[2rth2pwr]

7. It's called buyers remorse.

[Joe the Revelator]

8. If that was the case he wouldn't be leading in national polls

Stop just making shit up.

[2rth2pwr]

9. You think I had something to do with the Rasmussen numbers?

Holy shit.

[highplainsdem]

11. Look at Rasmussen: 23% of Dems want Obama to drop out. 29% would like HRC to run as an independent

if she isn't the Democratic nominee.

Those aren't percentages of HRC supporters. Those are percentages of ALL Democrats polled.

You really think Obama can afford to ignore all those voters?

He needs her on the ticket to win in November.

And this, I believe, is the main reason so many superdelegates haven't yet declared for one candidate or the other.

[Joe the Revelator]

12. I really can't deal with this level of stupidity tonight.

I honestly can't tread these trails again, over and over and over.

[highplainsdem]

13. Rasmussen's stupidity? Or Democratic voters' stupidity? Whether or not you like the poll findings

or how Democratic voters feel, Obama will have to deal with that reality.

[casus belli]

18. She can't.

Google "sore loser laws". She wouldn't be allowed to put her name on the ballot in some states.

[PaulaFarrell]

30. 32% of Dems want Hillary to drop out

She wins!

[martymar64]

42. Sounds very similar to the % of diehard Bush supporters

:nopity:

[OzarkDem]

34. He's not

when matched up against McCain, he's consistently behind.

[wileedog]

21. Why is California, among other states, polling higher for him now?

[OzarkDem]

33. Obama's support has leveled off

unless something miraculous happens, he's not going to pick up many new supporters. The fad has just about run its course.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

38. Indeed.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-poll24-2008may24,0,6353526.story

[2rth2pwr]

56. CA is only one state, and a state that should be safe Dem, especially if Hillary is the nom.

Although exit polls in recent primaries elsewhere have shown Clinton supporters reluctant to embrace Obama as the nominee, there was little of that sentiment evident in the California poll. But the survey could not measure whether time had eased partisan passions or whether Californians were predisposed to embrace either Democrat.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-poll24-2008may24,0,6353526.story

[Lucky 13]

10. I think it is her choice.

YES, I think it would be the right, graceful, decent, honorable thing for her to drop out now, but she's proven time and again that this line of thinking eludes her.

So fine. It's well within her right to continue, so I encourage her to do so if she is so inclined.


As a side note, I think her staying in through WVA and KY was a blessing in a way. He lost to a real live opponent instead of a candidate who'd already ended their campaign. Compared to those two, the rest of the way is a cake walk. He doesn't even have to pay attention to Hillary anymore. She damages her campaign all by herself and he ends up taking the high road and looking like the hero fighting the good fight against McCain.

It's been said before... He's playing chess. She's playing checkers.

[highplainsdem]

14. Clinton supporters, please rec this thread. Rasmussen shows how solid support for HRC is.

[emilyg]

15. k/r

[casus belli]

16. Uh, yeah. That would be because there is less than a week left.

Being this close to the finish line, it doesn't really make much sense to insist she bow out. Now, if she decides on June 4th that she wants to linger around, then you will see a vastly different poll result.

[highplainsdem]

29. Rasmussen found that 48% of Dems feel it's "very likely" this will be decided at the convention,

and "81% of all Democrats now believe it is at least somewhat likely the Democratic nomination will remain unresolved until the Democratic convention in August."

[casus belli]

58. So what?

You could find that 70% of Americans believe that Aliens have visited the planet, it doesn't necessarily make it so. I appreciate what you're trying to do, but it might be better for you to face reality instead. This contest ends June 4th.

[FrenchieCat]

17. They polled me.

I told them to let her funky ass stay in. I didn't have a problem with it since she is going to lose.

[qazplm]

19. considering

she has at least 29 percent support among democrats, how in the world do you argue that that 29 percent ARENT only her supporters?

[wileedog]

20. 28 percent or so think Bush is doing a fucking swell job

Everyone has their lunatic fringe.

[highplainsdem]

23. Not 28% of Democrats. And you can't dismiss 1/4-1/3 of the Democratic party

who believe Obama should be the one to drop out, or Hillary Clinton should run as an independent if she isn't the nominee.

Not if you want to see the Dems win in November.

Obama's been selling himself to Democratic voters for over a year now, with the media on his side. And despite all the pressure put on HRC, he's still dealing with nearly a quarter of all Dems who think he should drop out (versus not quite a third who think she should drop out), and 29% of all Dems who'd like HRC to run as an independent.

Unless he's positive he can make up those votes from independents and Republicans if he snubs Hillary, he has to be giving very serious thought to asking her to be on the ticket.

[wileedog]

24. Actually, when he wins the vote fair ans square, I can dismiss them

Why do you want to dismiss the 70% who DON'T want him to drop out? What the hell kind of logic is that?

The problem is with the 30% who have made their vote some esoteric point of pride, that they are going to be HIllary supporters to the friggin death God Dammit. Not the rest of the party who sees a candidate who has won the election.

Why are we catering to 1/3 of the party? Why isn't that 1/3 understanding that they lost, and that unless they figure out a way to support Obama, as distasteful for whatever reason that may be, THEY are going to be responsible for losing in November?

30% can't hold the rest hostage and claim the moral high ground.

[highplainsdem]

28. It isn't just 30%. It's 46% vs. 44% of Dems who think Hillary is the stronger GE candidate.

The 29% of Dems who'd support her if she were an independent candidate (which she can't be) are just 2/3 of those who think she's the stronger candidate aganst McCain.

Obama supporters are going to have to accept the fact that he appeals to only about half of the Democratic party.

If you think he can win the GE with just half, and the independents and Republicans you believe he can get to vote for him, then you can afford to snub HRC and her supporters.

But I believe he needs her, and he needs her supporters.

And I am so damn tired of losing GEs...

[sandnsea]

22. Another victory for the corp media

All Americans should be horrified at how easily people become misinformed. This is as bad as believing they found WMD in Iraq.

[Pisces]

25. Who the hell are they surveying? Appalachia?

[juajen]

27. Who in Hell are you working for? It couldn't be for Obama. NT

[Douglas Carpenter]

26. "Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democr

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. "

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

.

[burythehatchet]

31. Show me a so-called Democrat who thinks Obama should drop out

and I'll show you a scared, bed-wetting republican

[hokies4ever]

32. You whine more than Hillary does

:rofl:

[ShortnFiery]

35. Yeah, right - everyone tells "the unvarnished truth" to pollsters. I'm not seeing it. eom

[Ichingcarpenter]

36. Al Gore will endorse Obama on June 3rd or 4th...

Hillary can run until then, there are no primaries after that
Its over.

[DemVet]

37. Third Party run?

Hmm...

[mkultra]

39. to be fair

I would say that currently, emotions are running high and there are many folk who think that she MUST be elected. If she chooses to actually run as an independent, her numbers will drop dramatically.


Also, Rasmussen, much like quinnipiac is slightly slanted toward clinton imho.

I understand that DU is no longer representative of the democratic movement, but ive seen hillaryis44 and hillaryclintonforum, They both draw heavily from republican sources and even site freerepublic from time to time. Im not really sure how to view that. Either they are new and don't understand existing bias or there is a group of chaos makers that are trying to stir things up. I have noticed that whenever the Hillary supporters hold a protest, there numbers usually hit a max of about a dozen maybe two.

The real measure of this radical base will be rules meeting protest. If they don't get 1000 or more, then i would say they arent big enough to matter in the GE.

[Connie_Corleone]

41. The race is over next Tuesday. Who is calling for her to drop out??

Once Obama gets the delegates needed to win the nomination, then she should drop out.

[dbmk]

44. Is that the same Rasmussen that stopped polling her against McCain

Since they saw no reason to, given that Obama had it locked down?

[Bluenorthwest]

46. The endgame

The way a contest ends is a huge moment of definition for both the victor and the other. It matters little to the loser of course, as they have lost. The winner in these situations, not just this one, but all similar situations in life, stands at a crossroads. While no one likes a sore loser, people can not stand a gracless winner. Senator Obama is trying to set a high standard, for he knows that how he is percieved to deal with the victory will either ease the road ahead or create difficulty out of nothing.
Grace in winning is even more important than grace in taking a loss and it is far more difficult to achieve, for the ego says 'let's rub their noses in it'...but the fact is that the moment of victory is the moment that will make the next victory. Or prevent it. Filling up the hubris tank after winning a battle is to risk losing the war that lies ahead.

[MethuenProgressive]

47. "It's a very different Democratic party...from the pro-Obama echo chamber here at DU."

Yep.

[AllentownJake]

48. No more Primaries

We'll do a poll in late May and determine our winner that way. So much less messy than people actually voting and the candidates campaigning.

[iamthebandfanman]

50. then it sucks she lost?

dont know what to tell you.

all these threads against Obama do NOTHING for clinton, because shes already lost...


so you tell me what the intention of them are....

[Leopolds Ghost]

51. Buyers remorse indeed. The same fuckheads who demonized Kerry are now going to throw Obama under bus

They demonized Kerry as "too liberal" and "too elitist" and "not enough of a fighter" simultaneously. What would they have done if a genuine populist progressive had won? Demonize them even more, of course. They hate change.

[IndyOp]

52. Nearly 1/3 Dems want Clinton to drop out, only 1/4 want Obama to drop out.

Your post title is misleading because you emphasize a "drop" in number of Dems who want Clinton to drop out, while Obama's numbers stay the same.

32% = nearly 1/3 Dems want Clinton to drop out (yes then is down from 38%)

23% = nearly 1/4 Dems want Obama to drop out.

Your failure to directly compare Clinton & Obama's current results AND your failure to recognize that there is no statistically significant difference between 44% and 46% - the percentage of Dems who think Obama is the stronger candidate as opposed to Clinton - makes your post very clearly biased.

:thumbsdown:

[nichomachus]

54. Probably the same 23% who think George Bush is a great president

[Beacool]

55. Also from today's polls:

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_democratic_presidential_primary_tracking_polling_history

The gap keeps narrowing.......

[stratomagi]

57. Your sig line is disingenuous.

I like how you didn't bold the part that says 33% want Hillary to drop out.