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Edited on Wed May-28-08 04:07 AM by redstate_democrat
That all Obama needs to do is win the states Kerry won and pick up Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, states that Obama is currently beating McCain in right now.
Kerry won 20 contests with a total of 251 electoral votes. In the 2008 Democratic primary, Senator Obama has won 12, a majority of Kerry's DEMOCRATIC STATES. Even though Obama won 12 contests in DEMOCRATIC states, he still won more delegates in some of the remaining 8 Kerry states Hillary won. Senator Obama won Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, D.C., Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Vermont, Hawaii and Maine. ALL STATES DEMOCRATS MUST WIN.
Sen. Clinton has won 8 Kerry states which include New York, California, Michigan (but Obama's name wasn't on the ballot), New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
12 Democratic states won beats 8 Democratic states won.
Although Clinton's "Kerry states" amount to 150 electoral votes, including Michigan where Obama wasn't on the ballot, she won states like California, New York, and Massachusetts, some of the most liberal states in the country which will undoubtedly go for Obama in the fall. As a matter of fact, Obama is polling higher than Hillary in California NOW. States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire have Obama polling ahead of McCain and will still be blue come the fall.
Obama's states, however, must be won and are prime states ready for the picking by John McCain. States like Wisconsin where Kerry barely won with 0.38% margin of victory. States like Minnesota with Kerry having a 3.48% margin of victory. States like Oregon where Kerry had a 4.16% margin of victory.
Obama won Wisconsin over Hillary with a margin of victory of 37%.
Obama won Minnesota over Hillary with a margin of victory of 34%.
Obama won Oregon over Hillary with a margin of victory of 18%.
New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were also close states in 2004, but Hillary's victories in these states were not the double digit victories like Obama's victories in his states. Furthermore, he wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan so it is hard to determine the true margin of victory over a candidate that is not on the ballot.
92% of the Democratic states won by Obama were by double digits. Out of the 12 contests won in the "19 + D.C. Democratic states", Obama won 11 of these contests by double digits. 7 of Obama's 12 contests won had margins of victory of over 20%, with the highest margins of victory being 52% for Hawaii and 51% from D.C., both of which Democrats must win in the fall.
Out of the 3 swing states that Democrats MUST win in 2008, Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico, Obama won 2 out of the 3. He won Colorado by 35% over Hillary and Iowa by 9% over Hillary. Clinton only won New Mexico by 1%. Senator Obama is beating John McCain by 10% in New Mexico. He will win all 3 of these swing states.
Out of the 12 Democratic states Obama won of the 20 states Kerry won in 2004, 8 of these states were PRIMARIES and only 4 were caucuses. In the primaries, 7 of the 8 primaries were won by DOUBLE DIGITS over Hillary.
Out of the 8 Democratic states won by Hillary, the highest margin of victory was in Rhode Island with 18% and New York, her home state, with 17%.
Conversely, Sen. Obama won his home state with a margin of victory of 32%. D.C. at a margin of 51%. Hawaii, his next home state, at a margin of 52%.
1,701,537 Democrats voted in the New York Primary.
1,994,799 Democrats voted in the Illinois Primary.
Obama won a higher percentage of votes in New York than Hillary won in Illinois.
Obama's margin of victory in Illinois was almost TWICE the margin of victory for Hillary in New York.
In addition to these factoids, Obama has won 33 contests to Hillary's 18. He has 1978 delegates to Hillary's 1781. It is now mathematically impossible for Hillary to surpass Obama in the pledged delegate count.
Additionally, Sen. Obama has the majority of declared super delegates, with a steady stream following towards him for the past month.
He is also leading in the popular vote total, if you fairly leave off Michigan's vote total because Obama was not on the ballot. It is hard to determine the vote suppression due to Michigan voters being told their vote would not count.
Obama has outraised, outfoxed, outmaneuvered, outorganized, and outsmarted the Clinton campaign.
Obama has drawn upwards of 75,000 people to his rallies.
Obama has organizations in every place we need to be.
Senator Obama is on the general election trail right now. Notice the states he has visited in the past two weeks.
Michigan (made Edwards endorsement announcement and was received like a rock star. Michigan is in our corner)
Florida (made amends with the folks down there. We don't NEED Florida, but it would be nice to have them)
New Mexico (Traveled there with Richardson. We need this state, a state Kerry did not win last time. A state I call one of the Obama "3")
Colorado (Recently there. This is one of the Obama "3" that we need to win and where Obama is kicking John McCain's ass right now in the polls)
Iowa (This state is Obama's. They launched him into the stratosphere and they will be with us come this fall. He recently gave his Oregon win speech there in where he announced he was the pledged delegate winner. Also apart of the Obama "3")
Notice that I didn't mention OHIO. Gore didn't win Ohio. Kerry didn't win Ohio. But, with the Obama "3", Ohio wouldn't matter. Nor would Florida. Where are those "hard working, white workers" located? However, Ohio has a Democratic governor, so Ohio might not be out of the question entirely.
Obama also has another distinct advantage. John McCain will be forced to give up on his bid to pick up Democratic leaning states like Pennsylvania to hold off an Obama tidal wave in states like North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, and Louisiana.
ESPECIALLY with Bob Barr now in the presidential race.
Obama will WIN Virgina with Jim Webb on the ticket. He will win Missouri with moderate campaigning. He will win Georgia and North Carolina with heavy black voter turnout. Mississippi is also a possibility.
All of the stars point to an Obama win.
Did I leave anything out?
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