TPM Posts DNC Lawyer Michigan Analysis

[WeDidIt]

Right HERE.

Looks to me like the fireworks expected are going to fizzle out. The lawyers stick to their guns about the 50% reduction, though they present a couple of ways to accomplish that. Either the total number of delegates will be cut in half or they seat the full delegation with half a vote each. Either accomplishes the requirement.

Seems to me the most likely outcome is the uncommitted will probably be allocated to Edwards, Richardson, Biden, and Obama with those candidates sorting out how to choose the uncommitted delegates. Since three of those four have dropped out and two of the three have already endorsed Obama, most likely Obama will pick up most if not all of the uncommitteds.

That could give Hillary less than ten net delegates picked up out of the whole thing, florida and Michigan combined.

[navarth]

1. sounds pretty good to me....I'd have my vote for Kucinich go to Obama at this point.

[WeDidIt]

2. Your vote for Kucinich didn't count

and won't count.

He was on the ballot and he didn't break viability.

[navarth]

3. Oh well......

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. Even though it screws Obama, it is relatively fair. nt

[kennetha]

5. You are misreading the memo

It doesn't advocate this approach. It just outlines the arguments in favor of two different ways of allocating the uncommitted delegates. I don't think you can concluded anything about how the decision would go, were it to get that far.

One thing is clear from the memo -- the RBC does NOT have the authority, according to staff lawyers, to seat ALL the delegates. It only has the authority to undo the "discretionary" part of the punishment meted out by the DNC. On the other hand, the CREDENTIALS COMMITTEE does have the authority to do so.


So it will be the credentials committee and not the rules and bylaws committee that ultimately decides this issue.

[WeDidIt]

6. Not misreading it at all

Just taking into account overall fairness.

It is possible that they could seat teh uncommitteds as uncommitted, however, there is an argument in place that this would give Hillary uncommitted delegates which is demonstratively illogical as anybody who voted uncommitted that wnat their vote to go for Hillary had ample opportunity to vote for Hillayr.

Thus the likelihood of the uncommitted remaining uncommitted is low.

Also, it is highly unlikely this will go to the credentials committee. This would require Hillary Clinton pushing this thing further than June which would only alienate most of the Democratic Party officials. History has proven time and again, pushing things that far out results in a loss for the party and Hillary would be decried by nearly all members of the party leadership as a spoiler. It would so damage her within the party that she would end up with nothing out of this process. As is, she stands to gain much more by dropping out no later than about June 15.