Yes, Hillary is doing better in the polls now..

[CTLawGuy]

but Obama's numbers (he's still beating McCain BTW) are articficially low because of 5 things...

1. Bitter Clinton supporters. I'm sure many are telling pollsters they will vote for McCain over Obama. However, they are just upset (I felt the same feelings in 2004 - though I never threatened to vote for Bush) and most of them will come home in November.

2. Lack of name recognition. Hard as it is to believe, many people still don't know Obama all that well (the people who don't pay attention to, or vote in, primaries). As Obama introduces himself, his numbers will go up.

3. No VP has been picked yet. The right VP will send Obama's numbers upward.

4. The general election campaign hasn't started. The voters largely think McCain is some "maverick" independent. Once they are introduced to his blatant flip flops (tax cuts, torture etc), and he is tied to George Bush, his numbers will drop.

(as an aside: tell every conservative you can find that McCain voted AGAINST Bush's tax cuts).

5. The polls do not include Bob Barr. Normally this wouldn't be a big deal but this year, hard core cons DON'T LIKE McCain (see tax cut flip flop for a big reason why). I can see a lot of them being happy with putting dems in charge for 4 years and hoping they fail miserably, as opposed to neutering their own standing in the Republican party. Barr could be a factor especially if he plays up the tax cut angle.

[flor de jasmim]

1. In part a sympathy vote for Hillary, now that it's clear she can't win...

[iamthebandfanman]

2. dont even reply to their garbage

the polls she is in for a GE are IRRELEVANT because shes not the nominee.

im sorry, they are just going to have to deal. trying to explain or reason with someone who has the mindset of a 8 year old(you know, the right wing mentality) is pointless.

so my advice is just leave it alone.

let them talk to themselves for a while with no acknowledgment from us who try to live a reality based life. it has a left-wing bias you know, reality that is..

[Hugabear]

3. I think Bob Barr could be a HUGE factor in this election

Not so much as Ross Perot in '92, but probably more so than Nader in '00.

For one thing, he's a well established politician, a former Republican, one whom many repugs still admire. He'll have Neal Boortz (a Libertarian) practically giving him free airtime throughout the election. He should draw well among conservatives who cannot stand McCain.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Pat Buchanan Was Better Known Than Bob Barr, Also Had The Backing Of A Major Party And Received 1%

I will believe he polls over 1% when he does so...

[Hugabear]

12. When did Buchanan run on a third party ticket?

I remember him running against Pappy Bush in '92, but that was for the Rethug nomination. I don't remember him running as a third party.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. 2000

And he got .050 of the vote... That's how memorable his campaign was...Actually,he was the beneficiary of a lot of "miscast" butterfly ballots in Palm Beach Florida that caused the brouhaha that helped Bush* win...

Buchanan ran in 92 and 96...He actually beat Dole in New Hampshire in 1996...


All this shows how hard it is to get traction as a third party candidate...

[JimGinPA]

4. Obama Has Stopped Campaigning Against Her...

He's in GE mode campaigning against McSame now. Her numbers are artificially inflated and meaningless.

[Pirate Smile]

5. Chuck Todd mentioned yesterday that this isn't unusual. It happened in 2004 after Edwards dropped

out. No one is running against them anymore. All Barack does is complement Hillary now. McCain told his people not to go after Hillary months ago.

[DeschutesRiver]

19. I heard that too

something to the effect of since Obama no longer needs to run against Hillary, he isn't campaigning against her campaign anymore.

Hillary is still trying to run and get face time, so the polls are reflecting her last attempts to make some progress before the end of primaries. Probably to get her bills paid and to counteract the effects on her future alternative political career of her mis-statements and misbehavior.

[book_worm]

6. that is the biggest part of that. Obama's supporters care more about winning in November and will

support Hillary in bigger numbers than Hillary supporters currently say about supporting Obama. In essence, Obama supporters believe in stopping McCain and a large number of Hillary supporters only want Hillary and to hell with if McCain wins in November. That's the difference.

[NorthCarolina]

13. If what you say is true

then her Dem. supporters that would facillitate a McCain victory over Obama must truly represent the mental midgets and outright bigots of this country.

The only "logical" reason for the larger number of "supposed" Hillary supporters that claim they will NOT support Obama is the occurrence that in truth these voters have no intention of supporting Hillary beyond these primaries.

Polls show Obama with about 12% that claim they won't support Clinton, and Clinton with about 32% or so that claim they won't support Obama. I figure that the 12% of Dems for Obama is also applicable to Clinton at the same percentage (ie average for Dems). The difference of 20% appearing in the Clinton polls are most likely "operation chaos" voters who will support McCain in the GE.

[global1]

7. I'd Add A Number 6.........

Obama hasn't campaigned against her for some time now. She has had the whole podium to herself - as Obama has set his sights on McCain.

[George_Bonanza]

8. May polls mean NOTHING

If they did, then John Kerry would be running for re-election right now.

[AndyTiedye]

21. It's True That May Polls Are Not Accurate, They Usually Get Worse for Us By November

…after the Swift Boaters and the rest of the Mighty Slime Machine goes into high gear.

[crankychatter]

9. I've never threatened to vote for a Republican

I don't believe these people

wtf?

Now, if they were threatening to cast a symbolic green vote... it would be wrong, but at least it would make sense.

[FSogol]

11. I'm hoping Barr picks a religous zealot for his VP spot.

That will split the GOP.

[Hugabear]

14. Honestly I don't see that happening

I don't think any Libertarian would ever pick a religious zealot as part of their ticket.

I could see Barr going for someone like Bloomberg or Hagel, though.

[FSogol]

20. Neither are dumb enough to try a 3rd party run.

Bloomberg researched it and decided against it already.

[Hugabear]

22. Maybe - but I do think that he will choose a name recognizable to rethugs

Hell, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go after Lieberman - if McCain doesn't.

[Mike L]

16. Obama is losing to McCain in electoral delegates. HRC is beating McCain. em

[2rth2pwr]

17. It's called buyers remorse. As the party watches Obama get closer to the

nomination, they are having second thoughts.

[BklynChick]

18. Obama is no longer campaigning against her; this has happened many times in history before

[NC_Nurse]

23. She looks better on the way out.

[ladjf]

24. The sooner the Clintons are out of American politics, the better

for America.