After reading the DNC legal analysis of what can/can not be achieved this coming Saturday (see:
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/docs/michigan-analysis/?resultpage=1& ), I learned a few things I had not known:
1.
The DNC legal analysis does not mention Florida, either because it's challenge won't be considered or because the argument is the same (I do not know). It strictly covers the challenge to the RCB's December 3rd ruling against Michigan. The challenger of the decision is the Michigan Democratic Party.
2. The rules state that a
minimum penalty for a state violating the calendar rules is a 50% reduction of pledged delegates and 100% reduction of SDs. The RCB has the authority to
add additional penalties, which they did on December 3rd by sanctioning 100% of the pledged delegates. As such, they only have the authority to remove the RCB additional penalties. This means, the most favorable decision for Michigan is the seating of 128 pledged delegates at 1/2 their attributed value (or 64 total Michigan delegates).
3. If the RCB removes its additional penalties, it must determine how to proportion the restored delegates. There are three ways proposed:
A) as determined by the primary, non-Clinton delegates are free to chose (Clinton gets 36, Obama likely gets 28)
B) as determined by the primary, non-Clinton delegates are awarded to Obama (Clinton gets 36, Obama gets 28)
C) some other proportion (i.e. 50/50 split, based on new polling data, etc)
Let's assume the most favorable outcome for Clinton and she gets 36 additional delegates from Michigan and the
new needed to win number becomes 2057. Let's also assume that Clinton gets 2/3rd the delegates in Puerto Rico on June 1, giving her 36 and Obama 19.
Then on June 3rd Obama gets 49% of the remaining Pledged delegates: 15 to Clinton's 16.
This puts
Obama at 2042, which is just 15 shy of the 2057 that would be needed. Clinton would have 1868, which would be 189 shy of the winning number. Given that there are 196 SDs remaining, she would need more than 96% of the remaining SDs to win. Obama would only need 7.6% of the remaining SDs to finish this.
Being overly fair to Clinton in the remaining contests and given the rate of SD announcements and the fact that Obama probably has at least 15 banked but undeclared,
this contest will be over on June 3rd. Unless, that is, Clinton seeks to destroy the party by taking it to the convention.
On Edit: Adjusted to consider Florida decision; if you throw in Florida the end result is 2110 needed to win with Obama having 2082 on June 3rd needing just 28 SDs to win with Clinton having 1920.5 needing 189.5 to win, an even bleaker outlook for Clinton.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
