Obama Says He Will Be the Nominee Tuesday

[2rth2pwr]

From Jeralyn- http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/5/28/232353/442

Barack Obama said today the nomination for President is effectively his to claim on Tuesday or Wednesday. I heard him say it on CNN, here is the Wall St. Journal: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/05/28/obamas-self-assurance-over-nomination/

Is the long Democratic primary finally over? Barack Obama says it will be on Tuesday. When asked by reporters if the general election begins on June 3, Obama gave a one-word answer: “Yes.” When asked if he will be the nominee, he said “I hope so. I believe so.”

So, to Obama, the one plus million voters in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana are irrelevant to the outcome. He perpetuates the myth that the nomination is decided solely on the basis of pledged delegates when the superdelegates can consider pledged delegates merely as one factor, also considering the popular vote totals, electability and the electoral map.

There simply is no requirement that superdelegates vote by the pledged delegate total in their districts or state. Obama may not have 2035 or 2210 (or whatever number in between it turns out to be)in pledged delegates by Tuesday.

The Michigan and Florida decision on Saturday pertains to delegates. Once they decide to seat any delegates in accordance with the January votes in the state, I think the popular vote totals have to be adjusted to award Hillary the votes she got in both states and Obama the votes he got in Florida. If she ends up on June 3 with the majority of the popular vote, there is nothing that says the pledged delegate total trumps that.

The delegates needed to win the nomination are not the majority of pledged delegates, but the majority of all the delegates.

This race isn't over until he reaches that number or Hillary says he's the winner and suspends her campaign. Until then, there is no nominee

[livingmadness]

1. There is nothing as beautiful as the clean, unvarnished truth!

Yes.

Gobama!!!

Edited to add:
So when 'someone' claimed it would be over by super-Tuesday ... how many states did that disrespect, huh?

[GarbagemanLB]

2. How many SDs have come out for Hillary since Feb. 5th? And how many for Obama? lol

[CakeGrrl]

There are several sources that say the Obama campaign already has SDs "in the bank"

who are ready to declare for him once the primaries are finished.

All they have to do is wait for the R&BC ruling to find out how many total delegates they need to wrap up the nomination if it's adjusted to be more than 2025, then the supers that they know are going to delcare for them will do so.

[99th_Monkey]

32. I like the sound of that; and it makes sense too...that some SD's would want to wait.

until ALL the state's have weighed in. I can respect that; and would certainly hope Hillary and her supporters can too.

GObama!!!!

[Divine Discontent]

3. oh goodness.............

when I saw that last line in bold - I read it as ----



This race isn't over until Hillary says it's over! LOL Reminds me of something Nance said a while back, "she will not be ignored!" ha



That's how it's felt this whole past month when it, for all obvious arguments, was over.



New Obama Items Weekly!
www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable

[livingmadness]

4. AP News doing a rather good job of ignoring her at present

Have been listening to KPHX for the last few hours - each and every news-break has featured words from McCain, words from Obama ... that's it! AP are saying "yes" too!

[hokies4ever]

38. They passed their 5th grade math classes

:rofl:

[gcomeau]

5. Two things.

1. Saying he thinks Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota are irrelevent to the outcome because he says he thinks he'll be the nominee AFTER THEY FINISH VOTING is beyond stupid.

2. Since you're bitching about not waiting for the last three contests have been completed before a nominee is assumed, as if doing such a thing is some great sin, answer this: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6162200&mesg_id=6162200

[VolcanoJen]

6. So, you're basically conceding the de facto nomination to Obama *now*...

... and praying that "something" will "happen" between now and Denver.

Got it. :eyes:

[2rth2pwr]

8. Yes. Something=More Delegates.

[VolcanoJen]

12. So you're counting on a mass superdelegate switch between now and Denver.

Because things, superdelegate-wise, haven't been going Clinton's way since Super Tuesday. That's just historical fact at this point.

I fail to follow your nuance.

[2rth2pwr]

13. Yes, more superdelegates.

[VolcanoJen]

18. Good luck with that.

Check back in soon.

[2rth2pwr]

21. Yes. Thank You.

[VolcanoJen]

24. Do you have a Secret Plan to End the War....

.. or something?

Your codespeak is tiresome, obtuse, and counter-productive.

[2rth2pwr]

25. No.

[VolcanoJen]

28. Ha!!!

Obtuse one-liners are oh-so-intimidating. :rofl:

[dionysus]

54. do you live in a giant shoe with elves and gnomes?

[2rth2pwr]

57. No, but I do love the cookies.

[tavalon]

7. More States have gotten a chance to have their say in this Primary than ever before.

That's magnificent, but the unvarnished truth is that with our primaries happening in this staggered way, there is generally a point when it is over. It has been over for a while, but by Tuesday, it will be over. He didn't dodge the question but answered with some grace. His opponent, a woman I once admired greatly would do well to remember the grace that she once carried almost as a birthright. He did nothing wrong and lately, she has done nothing right.

Obama has much greater respect for the voters than I ever imagined seeing. Clinton has less respect for them than I realized.

Your last statement is correct and may Senator Clinton find her humanity and her soul by Tuesday. She's a much better person when she has those. I'm glad I didn't hang out in here during the primary because I saw quite enough without seeing all the stuff from in here. I am hopeful, that with time, she will regain that position of respected woman of dignity and grace and strength that I patterned myself upon. I don't want to remember the person she has morphed into in the last few months.

[VolcanoJen]

9. Now *that's* a post.

:patriot: tavalon :patriot:

[cliffordu]

11. What Jen said.

:patriot:

[Douglas Carpenter]

10. reality is reality

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

-----------

Average Polls in Nomination Race:

Obama 50.8/Clinton 40.8 = Obama +10

The nomination polls are the averages of Rasmussen Tracking, Gallup Tracking, Newsweek, Reuters/Zogby, Quinnipiac and Washington Post/ABC.

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Average of National Polls:

Obama 46.7/McCain 44.1 = Obama + 2.6

Clinton 45.9/McCain 44.7 = Clinton + 1.2

The general election polls averages the latest polls from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post, Democracy Corp, LA Times/Bloomberg, IDBB/TIPP, Battleground

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

--------------

----------------------------

And here are the predictions from the financial markets:

Intrade Prediction Markets: http://www.intrade.com / (The Rasmussen Market figures are pretty much in the same ball park: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=261450# )



Intrade Prediction Market gives a 61.5% to 63.4% chance that the Democrats will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 57.5% to 57.6%chance that Barak Obama will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 5.8% to 5.9% chance that Hillary Clinton will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.6% to 37.7% chance that John McCain will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.0% to 38.7% chance the Republicans will win the White House in November


-------------------------------------

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up":

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[2rth2pwr]

15. ...

[cliffordu]

20. The whole thing has kind of a whistling past a graveyard hopelessness

about it......

[VolcanoJen]

23. The OP is speaking in code

The code is called "teh stupid" but it's code, nonetheless.

[cliffordu]

26. Yeah, he says tomato, I say a lock on the nomination,

Hill needs to call the whole thing off.....

[symbolman]

31. Quayle says Potato, let's call the whole thing off :)

Love that oldie.. I would give it a ten because you can dance to it, and because Obama is So Dreamy :)

There, that should piss someone off in FairyLand.. I notice shorter responses, are the paychecks smaller, or just "in the mail"?

:)

[cliffordu]

49. People are putting resumes on Monster.com.....

It ain't easy getting hired as a paid anal fissure.

[VolcanoJen]

22. ROFL

There's a trick SAT Question hidden somewhere within this post.

[livingmadness]

27. Hmmm ...

[Douglas Carpenter]

29. If you REALLY believe Hillary is going to win...here is your chance to make one hell of a fortune

Put some money on it. You can increase your wealth by almost 20 fold by November:


http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[phrigndumass]

16. Good Intrade numbers there, Douglas :)

That red line is almost at zero :rofl:

[Douglas Carpenter]

33. I just saw on Intrade that the speculating on Hillary dropping out in June jumped by 6.6% to 75.6%

I suppose that involves news coming out of the DNC

http://www.intrade.com/

It's really mesmerizing to just watch the ticker tape on those figures.

The speculating on her being the V.P. nominee also went up by 1.9% to 18.9%..I guess that is related to the financial markets realizing that she will probably be withdrawing soon

[MercutioATC]

14. Have you noticed that we Obama supporters have moved on to debating VP picks?

Knock yourself out, but most of us are focusing on the next step.

[2rth2pwr]

17. Yes.

[cliffordu]

19. If I could spike a football online, I would.

[2rth2pwr]

30. ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-azgWTq3_dU

[cliffordu]

50. ROFL Very nice!!!!

Are you sending out resumes yet??

[cali]

34. Your post title reflects dishonesty. Obama said "I hope so, I believe so".

Pathetic hillbot delusions.

[MattBaggins]

35. Adjust the popular vote all you want

No one cares.

It will still be a metric that goes to Obama.

You can try and disenfranchise the voters who did not want Hillary in Michigan and the caucus state voters, but it won't sell. If you want to disenfranchise caucus state voters than be fair about it and subtract the people who voted against Hillary in Michigan from her total. Do that and get back to me on your masturbatory popular vote total.

[ecdab]

36. Obama will be over 2026 delegates by Wednesday - that isn't a secret.

[AllentownJake]

37. Your reaching

Reaching denial and gnashing of teeth

[WeDidIt]

39. Freaky Deaky n/t

[democracy1st]

40. Its over

[frickaline]

41. I'm sorry for your loss.

[billyoc]

42. “I hope so. I believe so.”

Damn, you stoopid.

[rucky]

43. But you may have to suspend your campaign, here.

[DeeDeeNY]

44. Latest superdelegate count doesn't look good for Hillary

[tekisui]

45. He is most likely basing that on Superdelegate commitments.

If Hillary had a significant number of superdelegates left to endorse her, they would have. She NEEDS them now, more than ever.

[Life Long Dem]

46. The finish line is - whatever - the delegate count total - is. n/t

[berni_mccoy]

47. So Queen Hillary must bless the winner now? How stupid and elitist.

[Richard Steele]

48. More news as it happens:

[peoli]

51. We have known he would be the nominee for over 3 months dude! Get over it!

[Orangepeel]

52. He thinks it will be over after Tuesday? Man, imagine if he had thought it would be over Feb. 5!

And then to hope and believe that he'll be the nominee just because he has a majority of pledged delegates and more superdelegates!?! The nerve!!!!!

[grantcart]

53. Governor Randell agrees Obama is going to win

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/05/28/rendell_doesnt_think_clinton_can_win.html

Rendell Doesn't Think Clinton Can Win
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, who supports Sen. Hillary Clinton for president, now says it's unlikely she'll win the nomination, ABC News reports.

Said Rendell: "I'm a realist, and I think most likely the superdelegates will give Sen. Obama the votes he needs. I don't think the DNC is going to fairly adjust what happened in Florida... I don't think they're going to fairly adjust it. So I think it's very unlikely that Senator Clinton can prevail. I think that means we're not going to field our strongest candidate."

[2rth2pwr]

55. I'd be a great running mate for Senator Obama. I wear a flag pin, so it'd be a balanced ticket.

I'd be a great running mate for Senator Obama. I wear a flag pin, so it's be a balanced ticket.- Gov Rendell

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/govs_rendell_pawlenty_on_polit.html


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[Occam Bandage]

56. On Tuesday, he'll hit a majority of all delegates. That means he's the presumptive nominee.