Disaster Looms for Democrats

[Youphemism]

It seems obvious that the Clinton camp and its surrogates plan to cry foul if the rules committee does anything but seat all delegates from Florida and Michigan. It also seems that will not happen. At that point, the Clintons, aided by the Republicans, will fan the flames of voter discontent all the way to the convention.

While it seems impossible that Clinton could work that into some kind of victory, let's say she does.

At that point, the Obama supporters will come out of the woodwork, claiming the election has been stolen. Voters, particularly african american voters, will no doubt refuse to vote for Hillary. (The republicans will also be happy to promote the notion of a stolen election.) Result: McCain wins.

More likely, Obama wins the nomination in spite of the uproar over Florida and Michigan. But with Hillary supporters unsatisfied and furor over the unseating of Michigan and Florida, once again there will be resentment, egged on by the republicans. Result: McCain wins.

I see party officials trying to say that this won't happen, but that appears to be wishful thinking.

From my perspective, the only way to dodge the iceberg we're headed for is for the superdelegates to commit in droves, *before* the weekend.

If they wait until afterward -- even just a week -- I think the wheels will be set into motion.

Of course, I'm no expert. I hope I'm wrong.

[lojasmo]

1. If Obama's the nominee, we'll be fine. EOM

[BlooInBloo]

2. "let's say she does" - Uh, if you can just assume anything you want...

then you can conclude anything you want. Duh.

[olkaz]

5. Exactly. Let's assume she is involved in an accident involving gamma rays and...

TURNS INTO THE GODDAMNED INCREDIBLE HULK



VOTES MUCH BE COUNTED! HULK SMASH!

[AtomicKitten]

3. Even if they seat MI and FL at 100%, she can't exceed Obama's delegate count.

And, contrary to the propaganda the Clintons have been feverishly putting out there, the candidate with the most delegates wins the nomination per DNC rules.

Clinton has nowhere to move the goalposts after next week. Nancy Pelosi has pledged to prevent a convention battle and has declared she and her posse will go with the candidate with the most delegates.

Done and done.

Amen.

[Youphemism]

11. Obama will win... That's not the point

My point, which is only emphasized by the fact that people have difficulty entertaining the possibility of defeat, is that both sides are polarized and that this problem looms whether you support Clinton or Obama.

If it were just a "here's the delegate count" issue, then there are things that Pelosi and the party could do to get Clinton in line.

But there has been clear positioning to make this an issue of voters' rights. I think that's an attempt to sidestep the delegate count. It's possible that it's only being used as a threat to get Clinton a VP nod.

My point was that people who support both candidates should be concerned about this. That's why I addressed it as a problem "even if Hillary wins." The fact that those words upset my fellow Obama supporters so much show the polarization that exists on both sides. I don't claim to know what will happen, but it's a real concern.

[AtomicKitten]

13. Of course there is real concern but there's not a damn thing we can do about it.

Hillary has her agenda - win at all cost. The problem is Obama has already reached a delegate lead that is insurmountable and Hillary won't concede.

It is what it is with our without our 2-centsworth. We are merely along for the ride on this one waiting for Hillary to concede or Pelosi et. al. to put an end to it.

[Youphemism]

15. We can audaciously hope...

...that the superdelegates see this issue looming and commit immediately, rather than waiting.

Unlikely, though. I thought we'd see more of them reaching that conclusion during this week.

I would think that a superdelegate for *either* candidate would see this problem and endorse immediately... (And I'm not one of the folks who have been calling for them to endorse until this became a "civil rights issue" in the Hillary camp.)

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. Cui bono?

That is all that needs to be asked

[Bensthename]

6. Yup, Hillary has more power to cause a dem loss this Nov. then Obama

If Hillary continues to cry foul after Obama reaches the delegate number we are screwed. And unfortunately there are enough Hillary supporters that will not vote for Obama if Hillary tells them not to this Nov.

[WeDidIt]

7. IF she succeeds, Cynthia McKinney will benefit the most

because she'll be demographically positioned to pick up all of those disaffected Obama supporters who will not vote for Clinton under those circumstances.

[billyoc]

8. Pelosi and Reid will weld Clinton into a steel drum

and drop her in the Potomac first.

Calm down. :hi:

[BlooInBloo]

9. Let's assume they do!

:rofl:

[RiverStone]

17. Absolutely!

Her campaign will wilt on the vine, or be ripped out of the earth - by mid June.

Party leaders will not the Dems implode.

[rox63]

18. Damn, now I'll have that image in my head for the rest of the day n/t

[TexasObserver]

10. Hey! Wake up! You're having a nightmare!

Why are you so worried? The race for the nomination is over. Hillary's campaign is a dead man walking. It's over for Team Hillary.

Obama is going to win in a landslide. Are you kidding? Look at that old, cranky geezer he's running against.

[Youphemism]

12. Right... The only thing that could cause a problem...

...is a bunch of discontent within the democratic party. That's what concerns me.

When you look at the posts here -- which, granted are not representative of the general public -- you can see how polarized people are in both camps. Republicans will do everything they can to use that as leverage in the general election. I do think it's a real threat.

McCain versus Obama? I look forward to those debates. McCain is out of his depth.

[Swamp Rat]

14. You have a few minutes to edit your title.

You'll feel better if you do. :)

[Youphemism]

16. Not really...

The only thing that can prevent a democrat (Obama) from taking the White House this season is another democratic party implosion.

I think people should be ringing the alarm bells right now, and the superdelegates should get off their collective butt and commit, regardless of which candidate they support.

Hillary's supporters are already tentative about voting for Obama. If she whips them into more of a frenzy and, with the help of the republicans, whips people into a frenzy about "civil rights" issues in Florida and Michigan, then she really could divide the party in a way that democrats are famous for doing.

No, I think it's better to be concerned and to wake people up about this.

[Swamp Rat]

19. One person's concern is another's doomsday prediction.

[ieoeja]

20. How does the GOP split figure into this?

This is surely a weird year.

On the one hand we have the DLC planning to sabotage this race then blame it on Democrats not letting the DLC run the party.

On the other side we have the Religious Right swearing to stay home on election day because their chosen candidate did not win the nominee.

I would suggest the DLC and Religious Right get together and form a third party. They could call it Christian Democrats. That party could join the Rightwing economic and foreign policies of the DLC with the Rightwing social policies of the Religious Right. But then that wouldn't be any different from the Republican Party today.

[RBInMaine]

21. STOP THE DOOM AND GLOOM POSTS PLEASE