Gallup Daily: Obama Back Up By Double-Digits

[gateley]

Just three primary contests remain, and news reports suggest that the dispute over the Michigan and Florida convention delegations will not be resolved in the best possible way for the Clinton campaign. The Democratic National Committee will meet this weekend and likely allow either half those states' delegates to attend, or the full delegations to attend, but with each member given half a vote. Thus, it is a near certainty that Obama will have clinched enough delegates to win the nomination under the current rules, and Clinton's only hope of winning the nomination may reside in lawsuits or a convention floor fight.

In a bit of a change from recent days, Obama and Clinton are both running similarly versus John McCain in the general election. Clinton had fared better in recent trial heats than Obama, but the latest update shows both races as statistical ties -- Clinton 47%, McCain 45% and Obama 46%, McCain 45%. -- Jeff Jones


http://www.gallup.com/poll/107572/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Back-DoubleDigits.aspx

[yellerpup]

1. Good news, gately!

Thanks for the update. K&R! :kick: Let's have more of these with bigger margins every day.

[sniffa]

2. Why are they still tracking?

:shrug:

[gateley]

3. Note that Obama's ahead of McCain, too! nt

[Douglas Carpenter]

4. thanks more good news

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107572/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Back-DoubleDigits.aspx

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. LATEST AVERAGE Clinton 45.7/McCain 44..0=Clinton+ .07///Obama 46.7/McCain 44.1=Obama +2.6

Latest Average of National Polls:

Obama 46.7/McCain 44.1 = Obama + 2.6

Clinton 45.7/McCain 45.0 = Clinton + .07

The general election polls averages the latest polls from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post, Democracy Corp, LA Times/Bloomberg, IDBB/TIPP, Battleground

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

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Average Polls in Nomination Race:

Obama 51.0/Clinton 40.5 = Obama +10.5

The nomination polls are the averages of Rasmussen Tracking, Gallup Tracking, Newsweek, Reuters/Zogby, Quinnipiac and Washington Post/ABC.

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

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"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

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And here are the predictions from the financial markets:

Intrade Prediction Markets: http://www.intrade.com / (The Rasmussen Market figures are pretty much in the same ball park: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/ )



Intrade Prediction Market gives a 61.5% to 63.4% chance that the Democrats will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 57.5% to 57.6%chance that Barak Obama will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 5.8% to 5.9% chance that Hillary Clinton will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.6% to 37.7% chance that John McCain will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.0% to 38.7% chance the Republicans will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Markets gives Hillary Clinton 83% to 83.9% chance of dropping out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 30 Jun 2008 (This is up 14.8%)

-------------------------------------

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up":

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[gateley]

6. Cool -- thanks! nt