THE MATH Daily Widget – Friday, May 30 – Wigand -0.73 – Total +0.00

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Friday, May 30 – Wigand -0.73 – Total +0.00








Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING











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Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

[phrigndumass]

1. Off-to-work kick ... The full weekly edition will be posted later today

A new poll in Mississippi has Obama within 6 points of McCain :D

[fight4my3sons]

2. good morning, phrigndumass!

k&r!

[phrigndumass]

3. Good afternoon, f4m3s! =)

Sorry I missed you this morning.

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

9. not a problem

I think I was looking over the charts as you posted that you were leaving for work. Once I posted I saw that I had just missed you. :hi:

[mod mom]

4. Great job phrigndumass! Did you see Poblano revealed his identity today?

My real name is Nate Silver and my principal occupation has been as a writer, analyst and partner at a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus. What we do over there and what I'm doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn't supported by the demographic evidence.

-snip
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/no-im-not-chuck-todd.html

Sure to impress Keith Olbermann!

[phrigndumass]

5. Thanks. Politics & Baseball go hand-in-hand, yes!

I'm not surprised that this guy is into sports stats. I'm the same way, except with football. He definitely has it going on! KO should interview him about both politics and baseball.

:hi:

[grantcart]

6. with no change on Intrade what caused the movement?

Monday will be one of the first key dates to see how the WEA works with both the DNC and Puerto Rico results coming in.

[phrigndumass]

7. The changes were from Montana polls ...

Two polls, two days apart. I didn't catch the first poll until yesterday morning, and then during the day yesterday another poll for Montana was released. The first poll put Montana within the margin of error, and then the second one took it right back out.

I'm working on my weekly edition, which I'll post today. I noticed that Obama currently has 254 electoral votes beyond the 4-point margin of error, according to the polls, and that 197 of those electoral votes are strong (he's winning those states by greater than 10 percentage points).

Watching his base states get stronger might be a clear sign that the swing states could follow suit.

[grantcart]

8. a week from now we will be in an entirely new reality.