Hillary's Plan to Take It to the Convention

[Youphemism]

Clinton Conference Call Context (CCCC)

I think I understand it now, though I'm no expert.

Yes, the Clinton camp conceded that Florida and Michigan broke the rules in a way that the other states didn't.
(http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/5/30/13333/0744)

But the conclusion that this means they're giving in is probably in error. In fact, this argument seems to try to support Hillary going all the way to the convention.

First, consider the Ickes statement quoted from that call:

“We’ll cross streams when we come to them, but we fully expect that they will do the right thing and seat all the delegates will full votes.”

By conceding that Florida and Michigan broke the rules uniquely, Clinton is allowing the Rules and Bylaws Committee to only seat half the delegates so that she can take her case to the Credentials Committee. This is the excuse she plans to use to go all the way to the convention.

That's the "stream" they want to wait to cross.

This is the only interpretation I can see that is consistent with past Clinton behavior.

[cali]

1. How? With what resources? And what SD support?

[housewolf]

8. Check out my reply to the OP re: Hillary's "Briarpatch Strategy"

Article at HuffingtonPost this morning on how she might do it

[cali]

2. How? With what resources? And what SD support?

[Youphemism]

3. You don't understand...

She doesn't need resources or SD support. She has A Cause. This is the excuse:

"Sure, I don't have the delegates. But until a Credentials Committee ruling on the disposition of those delegates, it would be wrong for me to drop out of the race. And, once we know that final ruling, it could influence the superdelegates who have endorsed my opponent. The votes aren't final until the convention, and we should just wait and see what happens there."

There's no campaigning to be done by her. But it gives her an excuse to stay in the race and not to help campaign for Obama like she promised she would.

Again, this seems consistent with her past behavior.

[southern_belle]

10. That sounds about right to me

:(

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

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[bunnies]

9. Welcome back!

:hi:

[cali]

11. sorry, it couldn't be clearer that the SDs want nothing to

do with Hill. And even many of her own SDs will be peeling off next week. People such as Corzine, Frank and Boxer have said they will switch. She's toast, psycho.

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

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[Swamp Rat]

15. Free granite cookies for trolls

[thoughtcrime1984]

13. GFY

In before the pizza.

[mckeown1128]

18. She doesn't need SD support...

her supporters have already laid the groundwork...by claiming that SDs don't count until the convention. That any endorsement are only snapshots of SD opinion.

[CoffeeCat]

4. Yes, and she will use the orchestrated PR...

...stunt tomorrow--to amp up her fake outrage and concern for 'voter's rights.'

She'll look nice and gracious today. Tomorrow, she'll remind us that she is a nice
and rational person (as evidence by her acknowledging that MI/FL broke the rules), but
she'll use protesters and fodder for pressing on.

She'll give a major speech about the bond she has with her supporters, how they're
fighting for her, so she must fight for them. This is going to be a doozy.

I used to work in PR. I understand how to orchestrate events and get soundbytes
and messaging into the press. Mark my words. She'll have "supporters" there
bellowing, crying and completely outraged--and spewing all kinds of incendiary
language (aka talking points). This whole event is an orchestrated farce, that will create a false
perception that SO MANY voters are outraged and ready to tear down the house
if Fl/MI aren't seated.

Manufactured reality on steroids.

[slinkerwink]

21. precisely. Her supporters don't even know how they're being played.

[scarletwoman]

26. I'm willing to bet that the spectacle of Clinton "supporters" bellowing & crying is going to

backfire big time. People are going to take one look at that shouting, pot-banging, bug-eyed-with-outrage crowd, and go "Eeeewwwww."

I dare them to poll the voting public on Clinton's "favorables" after they've gotten a load of that scene looped endlessly on 24 cable TV!

This is NOT going to turn out well for her.

And if she's hoping that it's going to scare enough people who might have voted for her over to McCain so she has a shot at 2012, I think she will still be in for a rude surprise.

Because I have every confidence that Obama can pull this off and win the general election, I have no doubts whatsoever. We need to stop being afraid.

Peace,
sw

[housewolf]

5. You may be right... go read this HuffPost article re: "Briarpatach Strategy"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/m.s.-bellows/the-trap-clintons-briarpa_b_104198.html

The Trap: Clinton's "Briarpatch" Strategy For The DNC Rules Committee Meeting

FOREWORD: Barack Obama and Howard Dean are about to walk into Harold Ickes' trap tomorrow, and they aren't likely to even realize their mistake until Hillary Clinton cries "foul!" next week and announces that "justice" and "voters' rights" are forcing her to carry her campaign all the way to the Democratic Convention next August.

By leaning toward implementing a compromise "split the baby" decision tomorrow on how to allocate the Michigan and Florida delegates -- a compromise that nearly all observers see as a setback for Clinton -- the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee ("RBC"), the Obama campaign and other well-meaning Democrats will actually be throwing Brer Clinton into the briar patch -- giving her exactly the excuse she wants to continue her Quixotic campaign.

In this post, written early yesterday, I make some predictions to test whether, in fact, the Clinton camp has a counterintuitive secret "briar patch" strategy for tomorrow's RBC meeting. Just in the last 24 hours, some of those predictions have started to come true:

much more at the link

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

7. Crossing streams....

:rofl:

[bunnies]

14. ewwwwwwww!

:spank:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

17. A besmirchment!

That's all you.

[bunnies]

23. lol.

Indeed. I'm sure I read your post all wrong. :rofl:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Indeed!

:rofl:

[Youphemism]

28. Response to Ickes' "Crossing Streams" comment...

A conference call response to Ickes' comment:

“We’ll cross streams when we come to them, but we fully expect that they will do the right thing and seat all the delegates will full votes.”

http://www.bundlings.com/quotes/GHOSTBU2.WAV

[polichick]

16. I've been talking with someone who is very well connected in DC...

...and knows the Clintons. He says there's one thing that will stop her from taking it to the convention, and that's concerns about her legacy.

He thinks she'll ask herself what historians would write about it.

[slinkerwink]

20. the question is---does she have people around her to ask her

about her political legacy?

[polichick]

22. He believes she'll ask herself - hope he's right.

[slinkerwink]

19. Exactly.

[Kokonoe]

25. Hillary is just getting started

If shes in it to win it, She will need all those delegates to win the trifecta.
Do not underestimate her plans. Please don't feed the monsters.

[DeschutesRiver]

27. I still think she'll be gone by next Friday

I am slowly coming to the conclusion that she won't risk the rest of her political life on such slender threads as those that she has been trying to weave together of late.

She will disappear completely off the news radar after the last elections; and then do what? Continue giving speeches to empty rooms about being a fighter? About "taking it to the PEOPLE" or "taking it all the way to the Convention"? There will be no money to even pay for her to hire a car or plane to get her to venues where no one will show up but a few faithful. There will be no money to pay people to make these sad press releases.

It would doom her to permanent obscurity, and I don't believe a person of her character will take that chance. Her words are very big right now, as you'd expect them to be before the last voting states have spoken. Her supporters who really believe in "take it to the convention" are going to be a tad sad and bitter when they hear her quit and move on next week. All the Clinton camp is working for right now is the ability to say well, we tried hard right up to the end, never gave up until it was inevitable, it is the fault of Obama, DNC, sexism, racism, climate change and pastors everywhere....

[Youphemism]

31. I'm in half agreement...

Please, allow me a silly trip down memory lane, back to an experience I had in third grade.

There was one kid who would, during every Show-and-Tell gathering, tell some story that was very important to him, but increasingly unimportant to everybody else. These stories always began with the same introduction.

One day, when it was his turn to share, he gave that same introduction.

"Yesterday, when me 'n Danny were at the trestle--"

He was immediately interrupted by the whole class, saying the exact same unscripted thing in unison:

"Oh no! Not the *trestle* again!"

The teacher suggested that it might be time to share something else with the class. Never again did we have to sit through another trestle story.

I believe that the end of these primaries will mark Hillary's "trestle" moment. It's been a long, tough battle, and I think there will be a collective sigh, followed by exasperation and then anger when Hillary tries to launch her cause yet again.

But I think that reaction will have to be pretty strong to stop her. And some of that pressure may get directed toward Obama, to name her VP just to shut her up. I think that's most of what she's playing for at this point.

[WeDidIt]

29. Tehre's a good answer to that losing strategy

I think that if Hillary Clinton takes it to the convention that Obama will win on the first vote.

When he comes into the convention hall after he wins the first vote, his speech should be this:

I decline the nomination. My primary opponent wants this so bad that she fought me even after I had won by every measure. I therefore defer the nomination to Hillary Clinton. Thank you.

and then walk out of the convention hall without another word.

It would end the Clinton era forever and she would end up being the losing nominee instead of Obama since the Democrats will lose no matter what if it goes to the convention.

[SeaLyons]

30. Hillary - in it to win it.....

GO HILLARY!!

[leftofcool]

32. Take it all the way, Hillary..........Obama is a loser and you know it!