Dr. Alan Abramowitz on McCain:No candidate running in such environment –has ever been successful

[Douglas Carpenter]

The full article is on the Rasmussen Reports website - link:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

"Dr. Alan Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkely Professor of Political Science at Emory University, and the author of Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States"

snip:"The problem with such early horserace polls, however, is that they are not very accurate predictors of the actual election results. Polls in the spring of 1988 showed Michael Dukakis with a comfortable lead over George H.W. Bush and polls in June of 1992 showed Bill Clinton running third behind both Bush and H. Ross Perot. So recent polls showing a close race between McCain and Obama may not tell us much about what to expect in November.

Instead of using early horserace polls, political scientists generally rely on measures of the national political climate to make their forecasts. That is because the national political climate can be measured long before the election and it has been found to exert a powerful influence on the eventual results.

Three indicators of the national political climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since the end of World War II: the incumbent president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year, and the length of time the president's party has held the White House. "



snip:"The Electoral Barometer has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 14 of the 15 presidential elections since World War II. There were five elections in which the Electoral Barometer was negative and the president's party lost the popular vote in all five of these elections: 1952, 1960, 1976, 1980, and 1992. There were ten elections in which the Electoral Barometer was positive, and the president's party won the popular vote in nine of these elections: 1948, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2000, and 2004."

snip"However, it appears very likely that the Republican Party is dealing with the dreaded "triple whammy" in 2008: an unpopular president, a weak economy, and a second term election. Based on President Bush's net approval rating in the most recent Gallup Poll (-39), the annual growth rate of the economy during the first quarter of 2008 (+0.6 percent), and the fact that the Republican Party has controlled the White House for the past eight years, the current Electoral Barometer reading is a dismal -63.

An Electoral Barometer reading of -63 would predict a decisive defeat for the Republican presidential candidate. The only election since World War II with a score in this range was 1980. In that election Jimmy Carter suffered the worst defeat for an incumbent president since Herbert Hoover in 1932. The second lowest score, -50, occurred in 1952. That was the last election in which neither the incumbent president, Democrat Harry Truman, nor the incumbent vice-president appeared on the ballot. Nevertheless, the candidate trying to succeed Truman, Democrat Adlai Stevenson, lost in a landslide.

The current national political climate is one of the worst for the party in power since the end of World War II. No candidate running in such an unfavorable political environment – Republican or Democrat - has ever been successful."


The full article is on the Rasmussen Reports website - link:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

[featherman]

1. This is correct. A McCain victory would be astonishing in the current political

climate. And I doubt he is the "larger than life" type of personality to overcome history.

The voting public would be asked to return the SAME POLITICAL PARTY to the White House when the current occupant has the lowest approval rate in history. Not happening in overview but we still need to get it done.

[Douglas Carpenter]

2. this is a somewhat technical article -- but I think EVERYONE should read it!

and click on the link and read the article in full:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

[peoli]

3. I like this report!

[WeDidIt]

4. The one way the Democrats could ever screw this year up

That would be "What is a floor fight at the convention?" Alex.

[rurallib]

5. But then they didn't have electronic voting machines until now.

Much, much harder to steal back then.

[joeybee12]

6. "There's always a first time for everything"

The Dems always find a way to lose, trust me.

[Douglas Carpenter]

7. not always. let's remember they have managed to win a number of times too

If this fight continues much longer, I certainly could see that making things very difficult.

But hopefully this will be all over by this time next week, if not sooner,

[joeybee12]

11. I'm just quoting a cliche...

...and they always seem to be right...didn't some football team win the weekend before the 2004 election which was supposed to mean that Kerry would win because the Dem always won when that happened? Like I said, there's a first time for everything.

[WeDidIt]

8. See Post #4 above.

[joeybee12]

13. Oh, trust me, there's more than one way...

...remember Dukasis' 20 point lead in August?

[Douglas Carpenter]

15. the Dukakis example is specifically mentioned by this author:

Polls in the spring of 1988 showed Michael Dukakis with a comfortable lead over George H.W. Bush and polls in June of 1992 showed Bill Clinton running third behind both Bush and H. Ross Perot. So recent polls showing a close race between McCain and Obama may not tell us much about what to expect in November.

Instead of using early horserace polls, political scientists generally rely on measures of the national political climate to make their forecasts. That is because the national political climate can be measured long before the election and it has been found to exert a powerful influence on the eventual results.

snip:The Electoral Barometer has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 14 of the 15 presidential elections since World War II. There were five elections in which the Electoral Barometer was negative and the president's party lost the popular vote in all five of these elections: 1952, 1960, 1976, 1980, and 1992. There were ten elections in which the Electoral Barometer was positive, and the president's party won the popular vote in nine of these elections: 1948, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2000, and 2004.

link:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

.

[joeybee12]

18. Hmmm...interesting...

but I do think 1988 was a good climate for Dems, perhaps nothing like this year, though.

[Perry Logan]

9. He's not factoring in how Obama's dirty campaign has split the party.

Obama's brilliant campaign has alienated around 17 million Democrats--so far. This will severely screw up the barometer.

[Douglas Carpenter]

10. almost no one is buying that line..

and almost no one except the true believers think his campaign was any worse than Sen. Clinton's or any anyone else. And many believe that he was far from the worse of the two.

It is truly sad that when someone tries to post a positive OP that does not even mention either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama or their disagreements are treated as an opportunity to sow hatred. disunity and dissension.

[WeDidIt]

12. Kick

[DerekJ]

14. Very interesting .. thank you.

[Why Syzygy]

16. Of course not! This is what I've been saying...

He's the sacrifice . he may know it or not. I do. Look at it. McSheep.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

17. Professor Abramowitz was my poli sci professor in college at Emory

He knows what he's talking about! :)

[billyoc]

19. I know, with half his FACE FALLING OFF--

Oh, he's not that kind of doctor. nm

[Douglas Carpenter]

20. one more kick

[Prophet 451]

21. That presumes honestly counted votes

That's what worries me.

[crickets]

23. Same here. -nt

[CK_John]

22. The GOP will dump McCain and bring in a clean slate. n/t.

[smalll]

24. Yep, but no-one's run against a black man who can't connect with the working classes

whose middle name is Hussein before. :shrug:

[Douglas Carpenter]

25. Latest Montana Poll: Obama 52/Clinton 35//South Dakota Obama 46/Clinton 34

links:

http://www.flatheadbeacon.com/articles/article/poll_obama_leads_clinton_in_montana_as_primary_nears/3626

http://www.topnews.in/usa/south-dakota-polls-obama-leads-clinton-2445

It certainly is not because of Montana's and South Dakota's HUGE African American population and all those Montana and South Dakota latte drinking liberal elites.

From the Billings (Montana) Gazette:

In a closer look at the Democratic poll primary results, Obama leads Clinton among every subgroup except in Eastern Montana.

Obama is ahead of Clinton among men by 58 percent to 33 percent and among women by 48 percent to 36 percent, the poll showed.

Voters younger than 50 favor Obama by 56 percent to 30 percent, while those 50 and older back Obama 49 percent to 39 percent, it showed. The rest are undecided.

In the 18 counties in Western Montana, Obama holds a commanding 62 percent to 25 percent lead over Clinton, the poll showed. These counties include Gallatin, Flathead, Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Ravalli and Silver Bow.

link:

http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/05/25/news/state/26-statepoll_s.txt

[Douglas Carpenter]

26. /

[Laura PourMeADrink]

27. Thanks. i haven't been worried at all. Especially after hearing

O speak last night in Montana. You should check it out - he was on fire. And, he is very, very good
at speaking his case and has no qualms about taking their bullshit and throwing it right back at them
very, very effective.

The war wasn't mentioned. I wonder how that would look - how parties faired when there was a war
especially an unpopular one. I think that it will be an effective argument for McCain because he
has the kind of a better argument -- don't give up, it will be a nightmare. I am talking here
only about the middle-of-the-road people. I have talked to many and they are against the war
but have fears of what will happen if we leave. Now, I am not saying this is rational or
that O can't make a good defense himself -- but what I think is very important is that O has
a strong comeback for all of this and that a middle east expert as VP would really enhance his
chances. People say get one for State or Defense - but that's too late. I think he needs
one for the campaign. Just my 2 cents.

Thanks for posting this.