Red states from 2000 that are ripe for the picking this time:

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

OH - 20
FLA - 27
CO - 9
AZ - 10
VA - 13
AR - 6
WV - 5
NV - 5
NH - 4
?NC? - 15
?TN? - 11

125 total possible votes to poach from the Repubs


Blue states from 2000 that are vulnerable this time:

?PA? - 21
OR - 7
NM - 5
MN - 10
IA - 7
?MI? - 17
ME - 4

71 total possible votes to be poached by the Repubs

Net poaching of 10 Republican EV's needed for Democratic win this time due to demographic shifts.

Looks like the main thing to fear is crooked voting, and late game trickery. Unless some legitimate or non legitimate event occurred to sway all these close states in shrub's direction, it's difficult to see that they would hold onto their 10 votes. Just playing the odds one would expect a substantial pickup for the Kerry, way more than 10.

Also, two of the Repub's biggest potential "poaches", PA and MI seem likely to go for K/E this time.

[tedoll78]

1. If Florida holds..

it's all over.

[Lefty48197]

2. Latest MI poll shows Kerry moving ahead, something like 48-42

Not a lock by any stretch, but I don't really think Bush has a chance here, and I don't think he believes he does either.