Dean as McGovern or Dean as Goldwater?

[bluestateguy]

We all know about the McGovern analogy now, so I won't belabor the point. Yet there is another scenario for Dean as the nominee and that is the Dean as Goldwater analogy. The way it would unfold would be as follows: Dean energizes core Democratic constituencies and liberals like no candidate since FDR, wins the nomination, and loses decisively in November. In the process, however, he builds the foundations of a revitalized American Liberal Movement, which will only gain momentum and organizational prowess in the coming years. How to tell if this is the case? In the November exit polls look for the following indicators: 1) Younger voters, 2) First-time voters, 3) Turnout of Democratic constituencies: does it go up or down? I could almost stomach a Dean loss in November if it was truly the beginning of the reconstruction of the American Left.

[hellhathnofury]

1. Neither. Your seeing something new.

[BootinUp]

4. What do you base that on

Is there a source for this opinion or is it just yours? Seems presumptious - this has never happened before. I would like to see a study on that before I'd buy it.

[hellhathnofury]

12. We'll, the internet, the polarization of the nation and the fighter.

Either way, Dean will make this close. The Republicans have been admitting this recently.

[Bombtrack]

13. That's implicit that Dean's rivals aren't "fighters"

or that you somehow can't be a fighter if you're pleasant.

The most effective people in power are those who use logic over emotion.

[hellhathnofury]

17. Man you guys are really desperate.

Believe it or not that was actually I typo, Al fights too. If you put "a" instead of "the" it would be fine. You'd still contend that Dean wouldn't fight, c'est la vie.

Care to address my other two points?

[Bombtrack]

18. yeah, he'd fight, but so would Kerry, Edwards, and Clark

and I believe, more effectively. Because it would be based on alternatives not anger

[hellhathnofury]

19. You've really bought the Howard's angry line.

What was it? The Drudge pictures? the media repitition?

If you think Dean doesn't have alternatives take a gander to the issues section of the website. I distinctly remember something about a $100 billion revitilization plan.

Kerry would lose much worse than Dean. Kerry has all of Dean's geographical faults and what's worse? He was on the wrong side of the war. Kerry would be overwhelmed by Rove.

I like Edwards, he's hardly made a dent in the polls though. I think he might give Rove a run for his money too. So If you'll allow me, I'll add him to the list with Al, Carol can come too.

Clark is so micro-managed that he'd lose just like Al did. They'd paint him and he wouldn't know how to fight back. The man has no prior political campaign expierence and it shows.

Care to answer my other 2 points of why Dean isn't Goldwater or McGovern.

[evil_orange_cat]

2. or how about Dean as FDR or Teddy? the last two real progressives...

just food for thought... :D

[Dems Will Win]

3. Dean as FDR will be more like it.

Dean is going to have 3 million volunteers (5,000 already in Iowa). Poor Bush is only going to have about 100,000 -- if he's lucky.

Let's see, that's 30 to 1. We win! ($$ will be equal BTW)

NEED A BUSHECTOMY?? CALL DR. DEAN!!

[clarknyc]

5. Dean as Dean.

But if that doesn't suit, maybe we should develop historic candidate analogies for the rest of the field, as well. In the interest of fairness...

[Bombtrack]

11. but McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis can be clearly put into one group

in terms of history compared to Carter, Clinton, and Johnson.

And others can be compared to them

[Bombtrack]

6. The democratic party is a CENTER-left party

meaning it is grounded on principals of and should stand for the principals of the political mainstream and particularly the parts of the mainstream that lean to the left, but do not embody the fringe.

Dean does have major things in common with all of the landslide losers of the last 40 years, and we can not afford somebody who will likely repeat their trends.

If the man really did have some sort of movement that was capable of the revolution that he seems to suggest he and it could, he wouldn't have to lie and distort about it on a regular basis, for example claiming he has about 10 times as many people supporting him as he actually does

[clarknyc]

7. I hate to ask, but...

If the man really did have some sort of movement that was capable of the revolution that he seems to suggest he and it could, he wouldn't have to lie and distort about it on a regular basis, for example claiming he has about 10 times as many people supporting him as he does

Do you have a credible link for that statement? Please share. Thanks...

[Bombtrack]

9. looking for a link now but what I was refurring to

was when, during Dean's asinine 'nominate me or else my supporters will not support the nominee/ nontransferable spiel' he claimed to have a million and a half supporters, i beleive.

When looking at all the numbers and considering the things they don't tell you (the fact that many dems contribute to multiple candidates, the fact that it's impossible to be taken off of his mailing list, the fact that he's getting more Bushie money than anyone else) a better estimate would probably be more like 150,000

[evil_orange_cat]

8. politics isn't linear... left/right/center descriptions are garbage

www.politicalcompass.org

I'm sure there are more dimensions as well...

[Bombtrack]

10. you correct in part, left/right is overused and too obsessed over

particularly by people on the fringes. However it is accepted in the lexicon that a certain political establishment exists on the left and one on the right, and that fringes and moderates exist within those extremes

and that the republican and democratic party 2-party system has helped to linearize it somewhat

[evil_orange_cat]

14. 2 party system is crap...

perhaps it allows two groups who have some similar views (mainly authoritarian) and different economic views (left/right) the opprotunity to maintain political control...

[Bombtrack]

16. well that compass system not exactly fair either

most of those systems come from a group pushing an ideology of their own. Obviously if one thinks that authoritarian is the opposite of libertarian, that's clearly a pushing of the libertarian ideology.

[evil_orange_cat]

24. "clearly a pushing of the libertarian ideology?"

what? have you even been to the site? they don't push any ideology... btw the compass isn't perfect, I mentioned that. But it's better than "left" and "right".

libertarian IS the opposite of authoritarian, BTW...

the problem is, American's equate being "libertarian" as having right wing economic values... and that isn't what true libertarianism is. Noam Chomsky is considered a libertarian by the political compass. ;)

visit it, you might learn something. :D

[beawr]

23. Holy Cow

I'm sitting smack dab with Gandhi. I like being a Libertarian Leftist, I want to force everyone else to be one too.

[Zomby Woof]

15. neither

Goldwater and McGovern were both people of principle, ideology aside.

Dean is a squishy moderate/conservative who doubletalks and prevaricates. No resemblance to the honest statesmen above.

Dean is only Dean, and will lose on those merits alone, or a lack thereof.

[stickdog]

20. Dean as Carter or Dean as Clinton? (nt)

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

21. I have no clue

I think what the McGovern comparison is mainly about is the idea that Dean will get beaten, and badly. That being said, it doesn't speak to why he would get beaten or what the issues at hand would be. There are many, many reasons why Dean might get beaten in the general election, but I don't think the McGovern comparison really speaks to those issues.

I think the Goldwater comparison is maybe a little closer to the truth --- like him or not, I think people have to admit that Dean has tapped into something that no other recent politician has tapped into as effectively. You hear this said about Goldwater all the time.

Personally, I think Dean has the best chance of beating Bush, so I'm not really a big fan of either scenario, naturally. But if he does get the nomination, and loses, I can't see the element that he's tapped into just going away. I think it would play a BIG role in future elections, whatever it is.

[Touchdown]

22. Dean as Reagan or Dean as Johnson

any questions?